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Whether LA will be suited by the Leger trip does not matter LD.
When having what looks to be the four best three year old stayers… Coolmore will be thinking that when they are long odds on to win the Leger anyway, why not free the best of them to race elsewhere?
Value Is EverythingAOB said on RTV that he hoped for something like a top 3 or 4 finish in the Irish Champion Stakes and then go to the Arc, if ‘the lads’ wanted to go down that route. So that’s a yes then. ;o)
What other options does LA really have that he can realistically win?
No chance in the Irish Champion Stakes, Champion Stakes or the Breeders Cup if any of Economics/Calandagan/COT/AR turn up so that really only leaves the Arc and you would have to think it would need the ground to be real attritional to play to his strengths but I am not sure he would have the tactical speed for the race on better ground as an out and out galloper.
I guess AOB can hope for a really wet Autumn so those 10F races are on very soft ground (Ascot the most likely to get those conditions) but then soft ground would seriously affect plans for COT & AR.
Interestingly if you look on the RP for LA’s future entries he has 6, both of the Champion Stakes and Arc but ne is also in the St Leger, Irish St Leger and the 2m Long Distance Cup on Champions Day.
As I said. If it came up soft then why not go for the Irish Champion? Soft ground places much more emphasis on stamina.
Also LA tends to only just find enough in his races – may well be better than he’s actually shown on form. Has pricked his ears at the post in Ireland and York… and is progressive.
…Yet despite that – is currently rated better than the current Arc favourite.
When it comes to Coolmore this thing about “tacrtical speed” is over-rated. His sectionals prove LA has more speed than many give him credit for anyway… It may not be an immediate change of pace, if a horse gets a strongly run race it can run the same pace throughout so doesn’t need tactical speed… Therefore in contrast to most owners, with their pacemakers Coolmore can ensure a strong pace.Value Is EverythingGrosvenor Square 5-1 ew. Illinois maybe deserves to be favourite but not a lot in it on ratings. GS is going to go out and ‘wear his heart on his sleeve’ listening to AOB last week. Will be fun to watch how long he can keep up the gallop on the nice ground for and who, if any, are able to go by.
It is difficult to say anything positive about what looks like a particularly uninspiring renewal.
Not my kind of race to have a decent punt in, but JFF i’ve chucked
Illinois in a small wager double with Wolf Of Badenoch
Nope I really can’t get excited about this final classic of the season and the entire card is eclipsed by Leopardstown but for some interest I am going with Jan Brueghel.
The more I know the less I understand.
Would be nice to see Beckett and team able to celebrate a win on the day after the Simple Verse debacle. He’s on fire coming into today.
I’m not strongly against the Coolmores but YOU GOT TO ME has the group 1 experience albeit amongst her own sex so 6/1 for a go.First post of this thread back in May darren83 with 16s on Jan Brueghel. Could be an inspired tip.
The more I know the less I understand.
O’Brien has the three favs, but You Got Me is a very interesting addition.
Looking at the trainers: Ballydoyle is admittedly in goodish form. But arguably all the other trainers are in even better form. Particularly Beckett and Balding.
None of these has a rating within a few pounds of an average St Leger winner. Wild Waves should still not be good enough on past form, but did best of those held up in the Melrose. Improving and stable in magnificent form… And with no real top jockeys – no Moore, Buick, Marquand or Doyle, with Grosvenor Square seemingly sure to go off fast… judgement of pace will be crucial. Wild Waves may well be dropped out and if the others go too quick… 60 well worth chancing.
Illinois was too short this morning so can understand some drift. But is now around 100/30. I have 6/1 ante-post, but Berlington Bertie is imo big enough.
Jan seems a bit of a thinker, might / should improve for the trip but needs to.
Sunway ran well in the Irish Derby but that’s a stand out so far and the drying ground may not suit.
You Got To Me is from a stable in cracking form. On “form” she’s right up there. If she stays should be involved in the finish. If I had just one bet on one horse it would be her each way.
Value Is EverythingThey didn’t give GS the ride i was hoping, wanted a faster test to string ’em out. May not have made a difference but would’ve been a good watch. wd winners.
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