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This is a quite remarkable renewal, with Camelot bidding to become the first triple crown winner since Nijinsky. His supporting cast are a talented bunch in their own right and it would have been a fascinating contest even if the dual classic winner had his attention focused elsewhere.
Camelot’s sire, Montjeu, produced Masked Marvel to win this race last year and Scorpion in 2005. He should stay the trip and is a worthy odds-on favourite, but we need only look at the history of this race to know that class isn’t always enough.
His form looks far from solid, but the Epsom Derby has produced Main Sequence – who appeared most unlucky in the Grand Prix De Paris – and Thought Worthy, winner of the Great Voltigeur.
It speaks volumes that these two consistent performers, beaten five and eleven lengths respectively at Epsom, are considered his closest rivals in the betting, generally.
Thought Worthy boasts an ideal profile of a St Leger winner and is a full brother to 2007 hero, Lucarno. Their careers are strikingly similar, with victory in the Fairway at Newmarket, a respectable fourth at Epsom, and a placed effort in the King Edward at Royal Ascot before success in the Great Voltigeur.
Five out of the last ten winners have run in the Great Voltigeur – a stat shared with those who have run in the King Edward or at Epsom. Thought Worthy has run in them all and his rating suggests he would have been more than good enough in recent years. He looks sure to stay, is very genuine and his trainer knows the type it takes to win this classic. He looks certain to run a big race.
Conversely, Main Sequence does not look a likely St Leger type on paper, but on all known evidence is crying out for this trip. Granduating from handicap company at the start of the season, his late surges are becoming a trademark. He looked most unlucky in France, but it would appear that he builds momentum and doesn’t possess an instant turn of foot. With that in mind this course should suit, but I’m often wary of those who come late in such a manner – it often means they lack a change of gear, but won’t necessarily stay further.
The ‘handicap graduates’ of 2012 also include Encke, Guarantee, Thomas Chippendale and Ursa Major. They will take heart form the victories of Arctic Cosmos and Conduit in recent years, who were both beaten off lowly marks at the start of their classic year.
Encke and Guarantee will both make lovely 4YOs and their respective pedigrees give hope in this contest. Encke is by Kingmambo, who sired 2004 winner Rule Of Law, while Guarantee is an Authorized colt – seven out of the last ten winners have been sired by Derby winners, whether it be English, Irish or French.
A John Gosden-trained colt, ridden by Frankie Dettori has to be respected given their records in this race and Michelangelo is open to any amount of improvement. He may just not be ‘street-wise’ enough for such a demanding contest, where only Sixties Icon (five previous runs) and Scorpion (six previous runs) have competed in fewer than seven previous contests in recent renewals.
Dartford will ensure a good, even gallop and that will suit the major contenders. Camelot should stay and he will be a tough nut to crack, deserving his odds-on position at the head of the market, but Thought Worthy boasts the ideal St Leger profile and will be sticking his battle-hardened head out when others are already beaten – he has fewer question marks than anything else in the line-up.
His price is just too big for a Great Voltigeur winner (several behind), will improve for the presence of a pacemaker, and looks sure to improve for this trip.
The comparison with Frankel is somewhat distracting to the possibility of a Triple Crown winner, which in my mind is worth more than many group ones, but that is only in my mind not a statement of fact.
Camelot has not won the Triple Crown yet, he may or may not, but I do think the reaction to the size of task any 3yo faces in attempting it is seriously underestimated in the racing press and in general comment. Whats required?A Triple Crown winner must come to hand early, he must have a constitution that can overcome a European winter and be precocious enough to be fit and competitive against his contempories very early in the season (late April/early May).
He must have the speed to beat the best milers over 8f, on a straight course, when many of those horses have this as their only legitimate classic target. The straight course part is important, there are no bends to slow the runners down nor short straights to provide a natural start to the sprint for home. Fields may split (he may be lucky/well ridden and be in the right group or he may not)and he has to be able to manouvere at high speed. Athleticism, physicality and tactical speed.
Four weeks later he is asked to handle Epsom, long uphill pull to start, downhill on a left hand turn, adverse camber, long drive up the straight into a funnel of 80,000 spectators. Against him will be a group of horses who often, from across Europe, have been bred specifically for this 12 furlong contest in suburban Surrey. Who’s owners and breeders imagined little else than this test and this opportunity. Speed, balance, class and stamina
Then he has to stay fit, usually he will have one or two races between Epsom and Doncaster before arriving in Yorkshire to meet the last leg that is the St Leger. One or two other things are present…expectation for one and therefore the nerves and potential for rashness when the biggest prizes are so close. Also a Triple Crwon aspirant will have a big target on his back, you can be sure that tactics for all other participants will concentrate on getting him beat. The long Doncaster straight is surely longest for connections of a triple crown runner. Versatility, Robustness and Endurance
So not only must he be versatile, talented and robust within himself he must be better than the best of 3 other populations of horses at 8f,12f and 14f+ . Remember he doesnt travel to Doncaster to spar with the same horses he met at Newmarket many of those are long since specialists at other trips, retired, injured or sold. The St Leger opponents are not obliged to target all the races and can stick to their speciality. I am exaggerating for effect but there is something of the boxing booth fighter taking on a fresh challenge every time the bell rings, about him.
Its a remarkable achievement if a colt can master it and frankly from my point of view no amount of focus on the recent, heavily endowed, end of season 10 furlong contests can diminish this.
We have waited 42 years to even have peek at it. 42 long years…I was eight when Nijinsky ran at Doncaster and I knew (thanks to my father) that this was a very special day.
I am very excited about Saturday and I hope Camelot wins, I am truly puzzled by those that feel he won’t deserve much acclaim if he triumphs or is undeserving of his place in the history of the sport if he is successful.
Have his critics really thought hard about why it is so rare or what is required to succeed?Beautifully put, Shabby, you deserve an award for the best post of the year. To possess the speed, consistency and endurance to win the Triple Crown is surely the ultimate test of the thoroughbred
Have backed Thought Worthy & Thomas Chip each way but will be more than happy to cheer Camelot home.
Hope Camelot wins, but have backed Thomas, Michel and Ursa all each way.
Value Is EverythingI’m kicking myself. I hummed and harred about backing the winner each way and in the end decided to cheer on Camelot instead.
Did Joseph have him too far out the back? That’s what I was shouting at the tele.
Confirms my abiding opinion of the ranking of jockeys at Ballydoyle.Perhaps they will rethink the situation now.Group one races require group one jockeys.
Superman,I don’t agree that that result is good for horse racing.A very bad result for the St.Leger.Who will have a go again if they win the other classics like Sea the Stars did?
Camelot has proved himself the best of a very ordinary bunch of 3yo’s. Sorry to use the well worn cliche but he was definitely close enough if good enough but while Encke was finding a couple of lengths he was busy putting his head in the air. The ride was not the problem. Chances are that if Camelot had gone down the King George route the bubble would have been long burst – perhaps that is why connections hid behind the history and went down the easier path?
Superman,I don’t agree that that result is good for horse racing.A very bad result for the St.Leger.Who will have a go again if they win the other classics like Sea the Stars did?
I think it’s good for racing that we don’t have to listen to fairytale stories from the truth economist or the boys about this horse. From now on they should let the horses stick to a more appropriate path and stop giving them superlative compliments whhilst saying things such as ‘we’ve had this name in mind for ten years but have waited to give it to a special horse’. As Stilvi has stated above and i also said the same thing just the other day, this was about opportunity as much as anything. The thought they could have this horse mentioned in the same breath as Nijinsky because he beat what exactly ? he didn’t go for the King George and he will probably avoid the Arc. This horse isn’t a abracadabra equiune wizard. He’s a 3y/o in amongst a bunch of 3 y/o who wouldn’t get near any good 4 y/o over any distance.
Superman,I don’t agree that that result is good for horse racing.A very bad result for the St.Leger.Who will have a go again if they win the other classics like Sea the Stars did?
I think it’s good for racing that we don’t have to listen to fairytale stories from the truth economist or the boys about this horse. From now on they should let the horses stick to a more appropriate path and stop giving them superlative compliments whhilst saying things such as ‘we’ve had this name in mind for ten years but have waited to give it to a special horse’. As Stilvi has stated above and i also said the same thing just the other day, this was about opportunity as much as anything. The thought they could have this horse mentioned in the same breath as Nijinsky because he beat what exactly ? he didn’t go for the King George and he will probably avoid the Arc. This horse isn’t a abracadabra equiune wizard. He’s a 3y/o in amongst a bunch of 3 y/o who wouldn’t get near any good 4 y/o over any distance.
What superstars did Nijinsky beat in his Triple Crown races?
I never said Nijinsky beat superstars. I don’t know much about the horse. I do know he
won
the triple crown, and actually took on the older horses in the King George and the Arc in the same season. He also then raced in the Champion Stakes after the Arc. This sort of ambition and triple crown/Irish stakes/King George wins make him different gravy to Camelot.
Lesters well quoted in saying
Nijinsky
never got the 13/4m trip in the 1970 St Leger,in fact in winning the Triple crown it ruined the horse and having lost over 2 stone in weight by doing so it still seems incredible that he even contested the Arc 3 weeks later.Todays result only confirms
Camelot
wont be travelling to France either.Triple Crown winners dont come easily…………If only
Sea the stars
had attempted it,he epitomised a ‘Galileo’ like
Camelot
epitomises a ‘Montjeu’ ones mentally and physically tough the others not!
I hate double posts so I’ll add……………….Run the race again 10 times and
Encke
will beat
Camelot
everytime,irrelevant of pace or pacemakers or tactics,the best horse won because he handled the conditions laid out in a race like the St Leger.
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