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Oxted update hot off the press…
July Cup winner Oxted is on course for the Betfair Sprint Cup after featuring among 15 entries for Haydock’s showpiece.
The four-year-old will try to join an elite band to win both races, with Harry Angel in 2017 being the last horse to complete the notable double.
Oxted gave trainer Roger Teal and jockey Cieren Fallon their first Group One triumph when taking the Newmarket race – and it is all systems go for Saturday’s Merseyside feature.
“All seems good – fingers crossed, we’ll get there in one piece,” said Teal.
“I’ve had a quick look at the entries. I was watching them come in, and it’s what was expected.”
The going is currently soft at Haydock, and Teal would ideally like conditions to dry out a little.
“If the ground tightens up it would help no end,” said the Hungerford handler.
“I have tried him twice before on an easier surface, and he hasn’t run to form, but I don’t think it was the ground. There were other reasons.
“It’s not that he has to have the ground rattling fast – but if it was good to soft, it’d be perfect.”
Teal revealed Oxted had to be treated for an ulcer on his epiglottis after his victory in the July Cup.
“He had a little wind op after Newmarket,” he said.
“He had an ulcer on the back of his throat. We had that removed. He was scoped after the July Cup, so he must have run with it. It was a simple procedure.”
Teal is delighted Fallon is available to keep the ride, despite his recent appointment as second jockey to Qatar Racing.
“Obviously he has a retainer now, but I think he is free to ride Oxted. That’s good,” he said.
Matt Chapman’s usually wrong when he says that!
Form isn’t rock solid for me. These sprinters are all beating each other. Not even sure Oxted was the best horse in the race that day. Golden Horde ran a bit free and on his own too much, had he been in Oxted’s position he might well have won. It’s such fine margins, if fell right for Oxted at Newmarket, he’ll be lucky to have everything to fall right again. Is he that good he can overcome an imperfect race? Not sure about that. Dream of Dreams ran his best race so far last time out, ie he’s improved, so it can’t be a rock solid form guide how you mention it, not for me anyway.
Looks like they will both compete for favouritism, money for DOD this afternoon
Sprints do seem to be a minefield
Even horses as good as battaash, blue point and Harry angel were prone to running a shocker
The form just doesn’t stand up as well from race to race like it does over longer trips
Less margin for error I suppose
There is less margin for error FF, but also the win margins are so fine in sprints, or maybe that’s saying the same thing?! Anyway, unless you have standout sprinters and I don’t think we do this year (over 6F), then it’s logical in that case that races end up getting shared around.
Trends are good for sprint races because of this, especially when looking at race history.
Only 2 horses have won the July Cup and Sprint Cup in the same season in the last 20 years.
No horses have won the Diamond Jubilee and Sprint Cup in the same season in the same timeframe.Only 4 horses from the last 20 Sprint Cup winners were Group 1 winners from that season.
Compared to 9 horses from 20, that finished in the top 6 of a Group 1 that season but didn’t win one.Of the last 20 winners of the Sprint Cup, they have between them won 32 races in the same season. The mix of those below….
Group 1 = 4
Group 2 = 4
Group 3 = 6
Listed = 6
Conditions = 7
Handicap = 5That’s a huge mix of races and I’m pretty sure that if I compared that to a mile + Group 1s it would look very different.
It’s a negative for Oxted and Hello Youmzain. I don’t think either are good enough horses to be dual Group 1 winners in the same season. They might do it, but those trends would pay to back horses that are not Group 1 winners already in the same season if repeated each year.
I did back Hello Youmzain antipost but I would actually cash it out now if I could. I’ll be looking to add a 3 year old or put everything into Dream of Dreams.
The Tin Man needs mentioning as well, his form needs highlighting. I can’t see him winning as an 8-year old but this is his 5th year in a row in this race with form 2312. He loves this race, put up a decent performance last time out and is still trading at 20/1.
No bet on that yet, but I can definitely see that price contracting once people pick up on that.
Interesting stats Frenchy, however there is no doubt in my mind that if the ground was fast on Saturday that Oxted would double up. I just feel he is the fastest horse over 6f just like Battaash has been over 5. Unlike other sprinters he’s not running regularly so horses beating each other doesn’t apply to him. He has been aimed at specific races. If he gets beat on Saturday it will be due to the ground not being fast enough, just like Battaash would if he runs on very testing ground.
Whilst I admire the trainer’s optimism about ‘good to soft’ being ideal I think dig in the ground is an unknown at this stage. On breeding it shouldn’t be a problem, but he not shown it on the racecourse yet.
Not convinced that Hello Youmzain can’t win it either as his Haydock record reads 211.
It may be that DOD needs 7f these days off a break. Time will tell.
Golden Horde isn’t out of it either with enough juice in the ground, as the ground was too fast in France last time. Btw, the trainer didn’t give an excuse in the York defeat post race but did in the defeat in France. So that implies to me that on the fast ground at York the trainer felt the best horse won on the day.
Loving the debate, it will be interesting how it pans out Saturday.
I typed out a reply to log myself out and lose it.
Tin Man is one i’m considering here too due to his course form. I think he’s a big price but probably vulnerable for win purposes over all.
Tabdeed + Art Power the other two.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!You talking about Golden Horde Mike? You mean the defeat at Newmarket then right?
Yeah Golden Horde I like, it’ll be between him and Art Power has to which 3-year old I’ll back alongside Dream of Dreams. You could see visually there was a possible excuse at Newmarket by just comparing that run to his run at Ascot. He ran much more relaxed at Ascot for sure. He also travelled really well in France and only got tired at the end, so I’m not sure the distance was in favour as well as the ground. He is definitely one to consider carefully.
What I’m struggling with though, is whether we are overplaying his ability a bit. That Commonwealth Cup is not great form actually. I had a look through the 6 runnings of it at the second and third horses’ rating.
2020
109 & 1042019
113 & 1162018
113 & 1102017
121 & 1192016
113 & 1112015
112 & 107This year is easily the worst of the 6 and there is not a huge substance to the form of it when goign through it. So I’m leaning towards Art Power, which would tie in to my thinking about Oxted, because despite maybe an excuse for GH, Oxted did still beat him a length and a half.
I do love these 6F sprints these days, fascinating betting heats!
Need to watch the ground carefully with Tabdeed, Owen Burrows said GS is okay, but S is not. Personally I don’t think GS is good enough either for win purposes, I think he’ll need G.
Lighty raced though, always dangerous!
Oxted is out, which takes a bit of a shine off the race.
I’m happy at this stage that my trio are going, but I would especially love to see a big run from The Tin Man, as I be not had many winners at that kind of price.
oh FFS
Very dodgy reasons from Roger Teal there. Waiting for CL to run on almost guaranteed soft ground. He’s not got the horse ready.
I didn’t want to knock him earlier, as he’s such a nice guy it seems, but part of my thinking with Oxted was not being convinced he’s a good enough trainer to win back to back Group 1s. That arguably semi proves it.
That or as he said the horse isn’t right today Frenchy? He’s a trainer with less top horses i’d say Oxted is his pride + joy and he’d have had him ready ok if possible.
Would love to know why Teal isn’t “a good enough trainer”. Crazy assumption given his record with horses from other trainers. He’s a very good trainer with the ammo he has!
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Disappointing he doesn’t run. But if a trainer isn’t happy with a horse’s work before a race and needs a blood test done in case something is up, then don’t run them.
Other trainers have done that plenty of times, just coz Teal has done it don’t make him any less of a trainer.
Hello Youmzain ew – 4/1 boosted with Hills.
Hes an old favourite that owes me nothing and seems to go well at the track and should be fine on the ground.
His last run in France was a good performance and hopefully puts him right there come Saturday.
Good luck all
Just to clarify the Roger Teal comment. The best horses tend to go to the best trainers, it’s just the way it is.
The likelihood that Roger Teal has a horse that wins multiple Group 1s is small.
That’s not necessarily down to his ability as a horse trainer in fairness to him, so that was unfair of me to write it like that.
It might be of course, but I can’t prove or disprove that.
It’s the right decision of course it is, but if I owned that horse I’d be asking serious questions to Roger Teal right now as he ain’t going to be winning a Group 1 again this season by running at Ascot in a bog that’s for sure.
Surely the welfare of your horse should be the priority over how much success it can give you?. I would imagine it was a joint decision between the owner(s) and trainer as to the best course of action to take after the trainer informed them that he wasn’t happy with his last piece of work and something might be causing it.
I’d say Teal knows that himself Frenchy…..if the horse wasn’t 100% this morning, what can he do???
Just to clarify the Roger Teal comment. The best horses tend to go to the best trainers, it’s just the way it is.
That’s obvious, but when a trainer is doing things the hard way, and getting results, it’s speaks a lot of them. Are you trying to tell me Ger Lyons was a terrible trainer when he started up because he didn’t get the big owners and horses? Teals clearly doing it the hard way as he’s not fashionable, but he’s succeeding.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!
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