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Somebody knew Something – Aldermoor 7.10 Kempton

Home Forums Horse Racing Somebody knew Something – Aldermoor 7.10 Kempton

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  • #19526
    Coggy
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1234

    Last 4 runs

    Beaten 26 lengths at 33/1
    Beaten 49 lengths at 33/1
    Beaten 36 lengths at 33/1
    Beaten 90 lengths at 16/1

    In those 4 runs he only beat a total of 3 horses home

    Today was available at 14/1 early in a place. Wins at 5/2.

    One could say that it was a shrewd piece of training to capitalise on a reduced handicap mark.

    Don’t you just love handicap racing in general, but especially at Kempton.

    #369636
    PompetePompete
    Member
    • Total Posts 2391

    Don’t worry C

    I’m sure one of the ‘usual suspects’ will be on here soon accusing you of pocket talk and telling you how if you had looked back in it’s form to the 27 Sept 2008, it was the obvious favourite and a 9/4 shot in there tissue.

    All is right in the world.

    #369637
    TuffersTuffers
    Member
    • Total Posts 1402

    It looked to me like it had a physical problem which they had managed to remedy.

    #369638
    Eclipse First
    Member
    • Total Posts 1571

    Alternatively the game isn’t straight, gosh did I really say that!

    #369641
    Scamperdale
    Member
    • Total Posts 83

    One of these days there’s going to be a horse called Occam’s Razor & some of you are going to be rich.

    #369655
    Coggy
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1234

    Tuffers – God bless you mate , but it may have had something to do with an 18 pound drop in the weights within the last year.
    I am happy to be corrected though, so why do you think that it is something to do with rectifying a physical issue.
    And why am I so cynical about why these miraculous improvements always seem to affect handicappers rather than other types of horse ?

    #369658
    Scamperdale
    Member
    • Total Posts 83

    Tuffers – God bless you mate , but it may have had something to do with an 18 pound drop in the weights within the last year.
    I am happy to be corrected though, so why do you think that it is something to do with rectifying a physical issue.
    And why am I so cynical about why these miraculous improvements always seem to affect handicappers rather than other types of horse ?

    Don’t handicappers make up about 75% of the racehorse population?

    #369660
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17722

    Don’t worry C

    I’m sure one of the ‘usual suspects’ will be on here soon accusing you of pocket talk and telling you how if you had looked back in it’s form to the 27 Sept 2008, it was the obvious favourite and a 9/4 shot in there tissue.

    All is right in the world.

    Ha ha! Love it! Well said.

    #369666
    graysonscolumngraysonscolumn
    Participant
    • Total Posts 6940

    I can think of several entirely plausible reasons for Aldermoor’s win, gentlemen, some or any or all of which may apply;

    1) His mark of 66 represents a career low. Time may show whether the depths of the gelding’s decline has simply been reached.

    2) The race represented a first dip into both class 5 and 0-70 company. The four races mentioned in the original post 0-85 class 4s, and indeed no other handicap previously contested had been banded any lower than 0-85.

    3) Last night’s race was his first on an artificial surface. He took to it.

    Note that whilst a winner over 5f and a sharp 6f as a juvenile, virtually all of Aldermoor’s best form (based on RPRs) during 2009 and 2010 had been achieved over 7f on turf. Were it simply a case of landing a plot job with him off an exploitable mark, it would arguably have been more credible to to try to do that granted a trip and surface over which he is at least proven in recent enough memory, rather than presuming a sharp 6f and first feel of Polytrack would enable him to do this.

    gc

    The patron saint of lower-grade fare. A gently critical friend of point-to-pointing. Kindness is a political act.

    #369672
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17722

    graysonscolumn

    I Bet You Was on big time then?

    #369674
    robnorthrobnorth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4563

    royalrock

    I can’t think that ‘You Was on’ is Mr Column’s style. More likely Toomes the Butler was dispatched to enquire of certain establishments as to whether it might be possible to indulge in a small wager.

    GC’s investigation, and God forbid anyone applies common sense to the matter (tut, tut!) does however open up another ‘not allowed to do’ to whit ‘run for the first time on a new surface’ along with:

    not allowed to
    a) run over a new trip
    b) run on going not previously encountered
    c) strengthen a bit
    d) drop in class
    e) run at a new course
    f) try new tactics
    plus hundreds of other variations that might effect the machines, sorry flesh and blood animals, that we follow in this sport!

    Of course there’s always a possibility that the stable staff have been working their a***s off to find out what the problem was with a horse that clearly has ability but hasn’t been showing it.

    It’s a darned good job this media i.e. TRF, didn’t exist 30 plus years ago as we would have had a section named ‘Strokes Pulled’. I can think of a good few trainers who might have sections to themselves.

    Rob

    #369679
    graysonscolumngraysonscolumn
    Participant
    • Total Posts 6940

    It’s a darned good job this media i.e. TRF, didn’t exist 30 plus years ago as we would have had a section named ‘Strokes Pulled’. I can think of a good few trainers who might have sections to themselves.

    …Aldermoor’s trainer Stuart Williams possibly being a deserving candidate for one such section in some people’s minds.

    I do harbour concerns, however, that some responses to the gelding’s win last night are founded on Williams’ apparent reputation (earned or not) as a stroke-puller preceding him, despite the other possible explanations for the win given previously.

    I wasn’t on him, "big time" (ugh) or otherwise, having been working and concentrating on other fixtures over the last couple of days.

    Toomes incidentally no longer works for me, Rob, following one incident too many involving Frank Bough, a camcorder and a sock full of Primula. I’m sure some reality telly show will snap him up soon enough, mind. 8)

    gc

    The patron saint of lower-grade fare. A gently critical friend of point-to-pointing. Kindness is a political act.

    #369680
    LeweyLewey
    Member
    • Total Posts 140

    I suspect this was a Patrick Veitch gamble. Although I could be wide of the mark. Like others have said before, connections have done well to get this horse off this rating and to find a suitable race.

    #369681
    davidjohnson
    Member
    • Total Posts 4491

    Like most gambles of this type, they are readily explained in hindsight. The problem is, any form student usually has to wait for the insiders to show their hand otherwise they end up with another 14’s morning shot that goes off 33’s and is never sighted.

    Funny you should say Rob about how different it is now compared to 30 years ago. Have you read the Post at all this week for their ‘Legendary Gamblers’ week. Some really good articles, but some of the stuff you read the likes of John Mort Green, Alex Bird and Terry Ramsden being lauded for, would probably see them warned off now.

    #369682
    GingertipsterGingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 26575

    I can think of several entirely plausible reasons for Aldermoor’s win, gentlemen, some or any or all of which may apply;

    3) Last night’s race was his first on an artificial surface. He took to it.

    gc

    To add to gc’s excellent explanation. Aldermoor has almost entirely an American pedigree. So wouldn’t be that surprising an artificial surface suited the horse, first start on it.

    He’s also in Timeform Racehorses 2010 as "inconsistent" for whatever reason; physical, temperament, or otherwise. So again, a return to form not as surprising as you might think.

    value is everything
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