- This topic has 9 replies, 6 voices, and was last updated 8 years, 9 months ago by
.
- Posts
When I saw Success Days favourite for this thought I was going to oppose him, big time. But other than him there doesn’t seem much pace in the race; could easily get a soft lead. Of the others only Elbereth is likely to race up with the pace – and he doesn’t always. Latter would have a great chance if believing the 6 1/4 lengths 4th to Highland Reel in the Coronation Cup. Handicap form suggests that flatters her slightly.
Algometer is a horse I really like, but didn’t impress last time out in a less than truly run 1m4f Princess Of Wales, 4 1/2 lengths behind Hawkbill. So a drop in trip for a hold up horse lacking real pace in a race likely to be slowly run – is a massive concern for me. Strangely, I’d have been backing him if taking up his engagement in the King George!
Mondialiste has been disappointing so far this season; trainer isn’t in the best of form either and I wouldn’t expect a horse to return to form until the trainer does.
Couple of trainers who are in good form are Varian and Haggas, although Central Square doesn’t look up to this and appears to need a hold up ride. Victory Bond is also usually further back than possibly ideal for this (was in the John Smiths Handicap last time) coming from too far back and hopefully will be more prominent today – won his maiden from the front. Goes well on a soft surface and open to improvement.
Stable first string Hathal ran well on reappearance when 4 1/4 lengths third to Mutakayyef imn the Summer Mile, looking a little tapped for toe in a slowly run affair. This step up in trip may well suit as long as he settles. Won the Group 3 Superior Mile at Haydock last year on similar going. Lightly raced of late and could yet improve.
I’ve chosen to back the two improvers from a trainer in particularly good form and saved on the prominent runners.
Backed Hathal @ 9/2 and Victory Bond @ 11/2 with savers on Success Days 11/4 and Elbereth 13/1. I know, I know, four in a seven runner race!
Value Is EverythingSucccess Days 3/1
His trainer doesn’t normally take too many over to the UK, so when he does it’s worth taking note. A flat-track like York could be perfect for his front-running tactics, and without much other pace in the race, he could steel a march on what looks like moderate competition.
What a shocking race. It’s another excellent bit of placement from the team behind Success Days, who lands in one of the weakest G2s and could get an easy lead to boot.
Something smells a bit off with Algometer and I can’t quite work out what Dr. Simcock is trying to do. Surely he doesn’t look at that horse and see a 1m 2f performer, yet he perseveres. Surely he would have been worth a shot at the Yorkshire Cup and would be a smart stayer given the chance. That makes me wonder if they’re just dicking around at his current trip to tee up a shot at the Melbourne Cup or something like that. If there isn’t anything sly going on, I wonder if Mulrennan will use his brain and ride Algometer a bit more forcefully today – can’t see any reason why he HAS to be a hold-up horse.
I also backed Victory Bond e/w earlier in the week – poorly placed/race not run to suit last time, big speed figures, fine on the ground etc. I’m not sure he’s a bet at 11/2 but he certainly was juicy at double figures!
You’re all over this like a rash Ginge!
I agree with Charlie though and have backed Success Days – he’s been mixing it with some top class animals (close 2nd to Arc winner Found last year) and has conditions to suit.
When I saw Success Days favourite for this thought I was going to oppose him, big time. But other than him there doesn’t seem much pace in the race; could easily get a soft lead. Of the others only Elbereth is likely to race up with the pace – and he doesn’t always. Latter would have a great chance if believing the 6 1/4 lengths 4th to Highland Reel in the Coronation Cup. Handicap form suggests that flatters her slightly.
””
I’ve chosen to back the two improvers from a trainer in particularly good form and saved on the prominent runners.
Backed Hathal @ 9/2 and Victory Bond @ 11/2 with savers on Success Days 11/4 and Elbereth 13/1. I know, I know, four in a seven runner race!
With a tail wind as well as the predicted slow pace, I’ve had a reverse forecast on Success Days and Elbereth.
Value Is EverythingSucccess Days 3/1
His trainer doesn’t normally take too many over to the UK, so when he does it’s worth taking note. A flat-track like York could be perfect for his front-running tactics, and without much other pace in the race, he could steel a march on what looks like moderate competition.
Boom
Well done the two Charlies.
Only a saver for me, phew – just held on.
Value Is EverythingDefinitely something fruity going on with Algometer imo. Mulrennan at pains to take the horse as wide as possible today.
Just hard know exactly what the end game is with that horse. The Melbourne Cup would be the obvious call but Simcock isn’t a big fan of the race and rattling fast ground could be a problem. Answers on a postcard.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.