February 2, 2012 at 09:30 #20905
Rather a belated start to the thread but I’ve been away for a couple of years
Those who remember me will know I concentrate on Irish NH Racing, UK and Irish Hunter Chases, Cheltenham (of course) and generally avoid all UK meetings bar the top grade meetings so I won’t be posting selection(s) every day
I like the look of two at Clonmel today, EW each and an EW double would seem the obvious bet
(2.40 Clonmel) I was highly impressed by the nonchalant win of KNOCGRAFTON KING at Navan. He’s from the same family as Denman and carries himself in a race a lot like his illustrious cousin, he seems to have that “pass me if you dare” attitude. Noel Meade was very bullish about his future after the race but he’s being kept to hurdles till next season as he’s been left to grow into his frame and the stable feel it’s bit late in the season to start novice chasing. Chasing is going to be his game and, although it’s still early days, he does look as if he could easily progress into being the real deal,
(4.40 Clonmel) This looks at the mercy of NO NOTIONS, a young horse who has only had three runs, typical of Enda Bolger not to rush his young horses. He was good enough to beat the very useful Rev It Up in his point and although eventually beaten fair and square by Good Egg on his rules debut , he looked to be travelling best of all two out but was given a very easy race by Nina once it was apparent he wasn’t going to reel in the winner. That was a far better Hunter chase than today and Boxer Georg, his highest rated opponent and the likely favourite, was well behind in 4th. I can see no logic reason for the Mullins horse to reverse the formFebruary 2, 2012 at 18:46 #389500GingertipsterParticipant
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Nice to have you back aboard CS and good luck.value is everythingFebruary 3, 2012 at 15:00 #389617
Inauspicious start yesterday, No Notions ran no sort of race, huge reversal of form with the winner which I can’t explain, only needed a place to show a small profit.
The one to take out of the race was the 4th horse, Gold Ducat, who met with interference several times in the final stages.
I’ve looked at these three tomorrow………no betting decision yet but I’ll have to back the last two at least if the odds permit
QUOTICA DES POTYANS (Wetherby 3.30)This handsome horse is one from my “Horse To Follow” list for the season. A bold jumper and essentially a front runner, his jumping tends to go to pieces under hold up tactics. He lost his unbeaten record under a very strange ride at Aintree but might well have won despite the shorter than usual trip and the jockey’s questionable hold up tactics, but instead chalked up a very soft UR three out. Stays 3 miles well and has looked as if he’d probably appreciate further. Easily the best Hunter in The North last year but has/had(?) the potential to be anything, 8 out of 10 in Points and Hunter Chases and unbeaten in all completed starts prior to being sold to Alan King for £75000 at the same sale as he acquired another useful Scottish Hunter, Hold On Julio, for £28000. Those of us who follow the Hunter season would have assumed the prices would turn out to be just about right in relation to potential and to each others ability upto that point but while “Julio” has taken all before him in spectacular style, it’s fair to say that “Quito” had been a huge disappointment.
Despite being held up all looked to be going to plan on his seasonal debut, he was well clear when coming to a halt at the last and was caught near the line. He has to be classed as an unlucky loser that day but didn’t jump anything like as well as he can. Very much on a recovery mission at Wetherby, I’m not convinced the trip will be ideal and it’s obvious the he must be allowed to make the running which isn’t guaranteed over this shorter trip. The stable appear to have got finally the message that he has to be allowed to bowl along in front, Wayne Hutchinson reported that he’d sulked when held up at Newbury
MY FLORA (Wetherby 4.00) Another from my “Horse To Follow” list for the season, this mare is on a recovery mission at Wetherby. Before flopping (by the previous high standards) at Newbury on her latest run she had looked a really high class hunter with two facile wins from two runs in Hunter Chases and a string of runaway wins in good Points to her name. She has been handled with kid gloves so far and looked to be an outstanding prospect and leading Foxhunters contender after running right away from a top class field on her first point of the season. I’m inclined to giver her another chance as she’s occasionally hit flat spots in the past, Big Bucks style, and might have pulled off a win out of an unpromising position when coming down at the second last. “Might” is the appropriate word, however, as she took what looked to me like a tired fall.
NEW YEAR’S EVE (Wetherby 4.30) John Ferguson is a trainer enjoying a meteoric rise through the ranks with a whole host of winners to his name already this season. He has a very high strike rate and a superb young stable jockey in Jack Quinlan. This one might be one of the stable’s best and should he reproduce the sort of performance that he put up on his debut he will no doubt be headed for The Festival Bumper.February 4, 2012 at 12:30 #389777
RATHLIN’s demolition of Aitmatov looks a stand out in the context of today’s novice chase, there’s a line of form through Popcorn to another with a shout in the 2m Hurdle, TOFINO BAY. He’s a horse I always expected great things from but has had lots of problems. Today’s trip might be on the sharp side but I’ll probably have a small interest for old times sake, he owes me nothing.
The Gordon Elliot/Nina Carberry combination must always be respected. DEADLIEST CATCH started odds on in both his points would be unbeaten was it not for tipping up at the last on his debut. He could be anything.
No big bets and I’m not suggesting anyone should follow me over what might turn out to be a cliff but these are probably worth small EW Trixie to pass the afternoon awayFebruary 5, 2012 at 09:41 #389911
Tofino Bay ran a really good race on his comeback, he was badly hampered when making his move on the rails, I thought that Bryan Cooper made a mistake in going for a "gap" that wasn’t there and never looked likely to open up. Once the horse bounced of the rails and been pulled right round the back of the field the leaders had gone. He looks to have retained a great porportion of his ability (at least) and if he stays sound he’ll be a solid betting propsition in a decent grade over a longer trip. Lovely horse, deserves a nice pot.
As for Deadliest Catch, Gordon Elliot may well have bought another dud from the pointing field.
As for today…………..or what’s left of it!
Working on the principle that Nina Carberry is at least half a stone better jockey than Patrick Mullins and probably more over a Cross Country course, I doubt if there will be much between Garde Champetre and Scotsirish today and though Garde looks to be a shadow of his former self this season I feel he’s the better value today. Again only for small money.
Can’t spilt Big Zeb and Sizing Europe, love them both. Course and ground probably just favour Big Zeb, tactics could be decisive so it’s awatching brief today but come The Festival it’ll be Sizing Europe for me again, I’ve backed him at the last three festivals and I can’t see any reason to desert him this yearFebruary 5, 2012 at 13:21 #389946
I’ve gone for a decent EW bet @ 10/3 bog
Assuming Garde Champetre can’t be out of the frame (highly unlikely) my bet represents the risk of 1/6th of my stake money (the ammount I’d lose if he was only placed) against a potential return of double the actual sum staked
Therefore I’ve theoretically got 11-1 about a win for Garde Champetre.February 9, 2012 at 09:29 #390454
RIVAGE D’OR (Thurles 1.30) is a cut above these but is a bridle horse and may not find a lot if "push comes to shove". Takes a big drops in class today from his last two runs, had acted on this ground in the past, hard to see him out of the 1-2-3 and the 6/1 EW with Ladbrokes looks very good value.
I’d like to back Carrigeen Lechuga in 2.45, a good pointer just starting to come to terms with rules racing, but Liz Naylor is a dire jockey so I’ll just watch todayFebruary 9, 2012 at 15:25 #390502
Can you believe it…Carrigeen Lechuga goes in at 10/1 and I don’t trust the jockey while Rivage D’Or runs like a pig.
Some days…………..February 10, 2012 at 14:35 #390616
Racing Post and Official ratings are not something high on my winner finding radar but I couldn’t help noticing that an old favourite of mine
has a bigger pull on the RP ratings than even Oscar Whiskey has in his all weather NH Bumper at Kempton.
I’d put a hold on Clerks since he moved to Oliver Sherwood as his jumping seems to have gone to pot but with no obstales in his way and 24lbs in hand of his nearest rival (In the opinion or RP handicapper)in comparison to the 22lbs Oscar Whiskey has in hand.
With the former on offer at 7/2 as opposed to the latter’s 1/5 I couldn’t resist a little EW interest despite my dislike of AW racing.
Kangaroo Court is another well in hand at the weights/ratings but 7/4 isn’t so appeallingFebruary 10, 2012 at 17:17 #390635
Shocking ride by Leighton Aspell on Clerks Choice, weaved through the field after giving the horse an impossible task, got into second then gave up and let the two he’d just passed get back up and lost 2nd and 3rd in the final strides.
Small ew bet lost but that’s not the point, I’ve seen suspensions handed out for lessFebruary 10, 2012 at 22:37 #390675rich1985Member
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I did BARWELL BRIDGE in my work’s nap competition as I thought a return to the flat where he boasted some decent form might revitalise him on the back of a good run, needed to be ridden closer to the pace IMO! Same can be said of CC!February 11, 2012 at 09:52 #390738
I did BARWELL BRIDGE in my work’s nap competition as I thought a return to the flat where he boasted some decent form might revitalise him on the back of a good run, needed to be ridden closer to the pace IMO! Same can be said of CC!
Agreed Rich, but we need our heads banged together for even looking at the AW card
Another branch of racing I don’t bet in is 4-Y-Old hurdles so why am I backing CREEKSIDE at Musselburgh?
He’s class, 3rd to FAMOUS NAME on the flat.
Won with loads in hand on his NH debut.
High class trainer who will be a Champion one day.
Best claiming jockey riding today.
Not much of a price but I’ll (EW) double him up with SHINROCK PADDY in the Novice Chase at Naas. High grade Bumper/Hurdler who’s dropped so far in class today that he’ll probably never win a chase if he can’t win thisFebruary 11, 2012 at 10:16 #390743rich1985Member
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Yes, I should’ve looked at Meydan instead where there was much better horses on show! With you on CREEKSIDE, should add to his tally. Not looked at Naas yet but will do in a minute as the AW on offer is poor to say the least! Roll on tomorrow’s excellent NH card!February 11, 2012 at 12:04 #390776
Yes Rich, tomorrow should tell us lots about various Cheltenham prospects.
The Deloitte should tell me whether to go for Cash And Go or Gailieo’s Choice….or neither
I expect the P J Moriarty to underline the major chance of Last Instalment winning The RSA
The Hennessey should tell me whether Magnanimity is a live Gold Cup outsider or not
Oddly enough it’s The Hunter Chase I’m most looking forward to and it’ll be where I’ll be having my biggest bet. If On The Fringe had won last year’s Foxhunter I could have bought a house up here with the winnings (Last one in my Festival yankee with 3 (Irish) winners from the Wednesday). He blundered just at the wrong time and despite the reversal in 2011 I’m loathe to look past him this year although I’d prefer if Nina was onboard rather than JT. How he preforms against Vic Venturi should tell us what we need to know with respect to The Festival as there are some very good young pointers coming through in The UK….probably none better suited to 3m2f round Cheltenham on ground with a wee bit of give than BradleyFebruary 11, 2012 at 14:45 #390808thehorsesmouthParticipant
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What are your thought on Viking Splash tomorrow CS?
I know you like Merchant Royal and Shark Hanlon’s horse wasn’t far behind him last time out, despite being off the bridle a fair way out.
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