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https://www.racingpost.com/racecards/187/leopardstown/2022-12-28/827824
Two proper favourites jump out here for me, both in the same ownership, Galvin, and Stattler.
Galvin, last years winner, was too bad to be true at Down Royal, and he’s miles better than that. Long term Aintree hope of mine, and it’s been good to see him Grade 1’s along the way. It’s hard to read whether Aintree or Cheltenham is his chief goal this year, after he was put in his place in March, but wherever he’s heading, certainly has his well-being to prove after last time. Still very hard to rule out here though.
We’ve not seen the best of Stattler yet, and I think he’s not far off Gold Cup material. I’ve bet him for Aintree, and would like him to wait for the Grade 1’s until next year, but his entry for this and The John Durkan, suggest that my National bet might just be in trouble.
My long term fancy for this though is Conflated. I think that this race is perfect for him, and I was planning a bet if the odds were right when it was priced up. That’s maybe not going to be such a wise move now, with the Aintree entry, and unless it’s way too big, I’ll have to hold off.
Strong entry as could be expected, and plenty of stars in there, but I’ll be with at least one of that trio, with Conflated the early #1
Market up…
https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/ante-post-racing/national-hunt/savills-steeplechase/winner
I was hoping, long term anyway, that Conflated would be bigger than 100-30, but I suppose that was to be expected with it looking like a slightly weaker renewal than usual.
At this stage more likely to look at the prices at Galvin 10’s, or Stattler if someone went just a bit bigger (I could swear he opened at 7’s). If last time was a blip, then that 10’s for Galvin is very fair.
Hands tied with that price, and I’ll have to back him.
Conflated 9-2
Galvin 10’sI’ve taken Kemboy at 10-1, as he’s a horse that I’ve always liked, and I think that he’ll be primed for a big run
Nothing stands out for me in this 183% (circa 4.5% a runner) ante-post book, with a margin that would make a Point-to-Point bookmaker blush.
Still, there’s often still a “rick” even in the loftiest over-round books.
I’d like to know a few of these aren’t running for sure before getting involved with anything that is.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"You can take Galopin Des Champs out of the over round, Ian
He’ll run in the rearranged John Durkan on Monday or the Tramore race on New Years Day, I think it is
this race wouldn’t be a first time out run for him and the date of the rearrangement means it would be possibly too close to run again and they would probably wait for Tramore if wanting to run twice.Of course I could be wrong and Mullins brings him here but I have strong doubts
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The thing is, Nathan, seeing is believing with the uber cynical Chezza.
The horse needs to show up and run on Monday before I start looking at odds of other runners which could double if he goes for this.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Agree Joe, possibly too big, and he didn’t look right at Down Royal, but had to take it.
“he didn’t look right at Down Royal,”
I think he scoped badly so has an excuse. Would think he has a decent chance in this especially if the ground is good.
Jeff, I’m another who’s likely to go with Kemboy here. I haven’t bet him yet, but it’ll certainly be between him and Stattler for me.
Conflated 7/2 for me
Sounds like a plus tard isn’t a guaranteed runner so backing him now just in case
I get the feeling Galvin is being prepped for Aintree, so a win here won’t be the stables priority. I’ll have a small saver in the event I’m wrong (I’m pretty good at that).
My main bet is Kemboy. He’s a big enough price and is so consistent. Unlike others I think this will have been his main target for the season. Record in this race is 1423 and wasn’t far away in any of his defeats.
I’d like to oppose A Plus Tard ; he got beaten here (albeit a short head) after hacking up at Haydock last year and this season hasn’t had a nice prep, and the ground is perhaps softer than he’d like.
I’d be really interested in Galvin and Fury Road on good- yielding, and either of them might win despite it being softer (and both won here last year) but I dunno…
The sensible bet is Conflated who goes on soft and has been fairly consistent but I just never warmed to him. Maybe it’s his stupid name. At least they didn’t call him Deflated. Sorry Conflated, it’s not you it’s me.
I think Kemboy is past it and would be surprised if Royal Rendezvous was good enough, and don’t know if French Dynamite will stay 3 miles here on soft.
Which leaves me with the other 7 year old, Franco de Port. Whose form also isn’t good enough but he stays, goes on soft and jumped OK in France in the main and, at 50-1 ew, I’m hoping Danny Mullins can smuggle him into it.
Nice each way shape about the race. Fury Road is still unexposed and won at the meeting last year and is a nice price (all be it shortening fast).
11/1 – Fury Road e/w
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