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What it means is that you are in anorak territory and successful punters rarely emerge from such a sparse environment.
Really? And you’d know I suppose.
Thanks for the compliment Woolfie, always wanted to be associated with the Master, Alan Potts. Though I am more Ginger "Anorak" than Golden.
Value Is EverythingOH MY GOD!!
Man United 1-2 Albion
Villa 3-2 Man CityHOW LONG ARE WE GOING TO BE RIPPED OFF BY THIS BENT NONSENSE I BET ALL THE CONNECTIONS MADE AN ABSOLUTE FORTUNE ON THIS YES THEY WERE CARRYING IT HOME IN WHEELBARROWS THE GAMES SO BENT ITS AS EASY TO LOSE ON AN ODDS ON SHOT AS AN ODDS AGAINST BOOKMAKERS ARE OF COURSE DELIGHTED FUNNY HOW ALL THESE LONG ODDS-ON SHOTS KEEP GETTING BEAT WEEK-IN WEEK-OUT IT’S JUST SO BLOODY BLATANT I HATE THIS GAME THEY DON’T PLAY FOOTY FOR YOU YOU KNOW ITS THE BENT PLAYERS, BENT OWNERS AND BENT TRAINERS AND MANAGERS…
(etc etc until Woolfie spontaneously combusts…)
Mike
I was trying to keep away from the News, to watch Match Of The Day without knowing results. But that was worth it Mike!
Value Is EverythingFortunately, not too much for punters to get upset about today Woolf – still contrived to lose myself though – with the notable exception of Zain Eagle who ran an absolute shocker at Chester and then of course to compound things the horse he previously trounced went on to turn over the favourite in the last at Newmarket. No doubt those punters who are prepared to follow Pricewise over a cliff will be particularly happy.
Stilvi
Seen more shocking Saturdays as you say but it was not without shocks.
I will continue to highlight the unexplainable.
Different Sport but Man U beaten by West Brom, Man City by Villa (89/1 the double) – does this mean Football’s bent too?
Yes folks, the sickening corruption spreads to Spain as Ronaldo and Bale lay their team to lose £43 on Betfair.
Real 0-1 Atletico
Shameful.
And just so blatant.
Mike
We should rejoice that there were fewer shocks than usual yesterday, there were winners at 16/1 and very short priced losers. In isolation it means nothing, I’ll keep tabs on future Saturdays.
I will continue to highlight the unexplainable.
Well you can do if you like but what’s the point? We can all read the results thanks!
The ‘unexplainable’ happens in every sport, every day. Why should racing be any different? It is a logical and statistical certainty that the most unlikely, inexplicable results will occur. It’s impossible for them not to.
Your fantasy that more ‘shocks’ happen nowadays is totally disproven by analysis of the SP market.
At the end of the day they’re horses running around fields. Quite frankly, I’m amazed that any of us manage to find a winner!
Mike
Has anyone read steeplechasing’s sig? Statler & Waldorf have had y’all running round like headless chickens for months now.
I’ll try once more…
We should rejoice that there were fewer shocks than usual yesterday, there were winners at 16/1 and very short priced losers. In isolation it means nothing, I’ll keep tabs on future Saturdays.
Woolfie,
Bookies odds compilers examine form and work out the percentage chance they believe each horse has of winning…e.g. A four horse race:
The Ante-Post King 50% (fair Evens)
Betlarge 25% (fair 3/1)
Rob North 20% (fair 4/1
Woolfie 5% (fair 20/1)
50 + 25 + 20 + 5 = 100%But at those prices there is no profit for the bookmaker, it being possible for the punter to back all 4 horses and break even. So the bookmaker then adds his mark up to those figures and offers Early Prices of…
The Ante-Post King 52% 10/11
Betlarge 27% 11/4
Rob North 22% 7/2
Woolfie 6% 16/1
52 + 27 + 22 + 6 = 107%
The bookmaker is now working to 107% so has a profit margin.If the odds compiler’s assessments are right, The Ante-Post King has only a 50% chance of winning, yet you believe it a "shock" if the 10/11 shot loses.
If the bookmaker’s assessment of Woolfie is right, he has a 5% chance of winning. That may sound to you as if it is a "shock" if it wins; but there are so many priced at 16/1 or bigger running in a day that the percentages add up…
If we take yesterday’s 5:25 Ripon as an example. The winner was 16/1 shot Ambitious Icarus… But there were 6 horses in that race alone at 16/1 or bigger. These 6:
Ambitious Icarus 16/1 minus bookies mark up = 5%
Ruby’s Day 25/1 minus bookies mark up = 3%
Sunny Side Up 22/1 – mark up = 3.5%
Bronze Beau 22/1 – mark up = 3.5%
Satsuma 25/1 – mark up = 3%
Lost In Paris 22/1 – mark up = 3.5
5 + 3 + 3.5 + 3.5 + 3 + 3.5 = 21.5%So if the market was a correct indication of the horses chances – a 16/1+ winner in this one race was around 21.5%, equivalent to combined odds of nearly 7/2. Taking a bookies mark up off the price of the favourite, the 3/1 becomes 23% 100/30. So the combined odds of a 16/1+ winner in this one race was almost as good as the 3/1 favourite. Therefore, a 16/1 winner was hardly a "shock" Woolfie.
Probabilities/odds mean the biggest shock would be if no outsiders won.
Value Is EverythingBore off Garfield.
Hopefully PC, Woolfie will now shut up about the numbers of outsiders winning proving God knows what. I think we’ve now gone over everything possible on the subject and an "I refer you to the answer I gave earlier" will be my answer from now on.Value Is Everythingthere are none so blind as those who will not see
so give it up Gingerrepeater et al
Howlin’ woolves do not have particularly good eyesight but their olfactory bulb is enormous and they can scent prey from miles away
They will track it and toy with it remorselessly before pouncing and gorging
They will then sleep off the meal before repeating the whole routine when the stomach rumbles once again
Look forward to hearing your howls again in a week or so Woolf
The Large and Ginger prey may have grown more wary by then though and choose to remain hidden in the undergrowth
I accept I am up against some rabid defenders of the sport, red in tooth and claw from battles with doubters of my ilk.
I am not deterred, they will retire in exhaustion before I accept the preposterous claim that racing is squeaky clean.
A cursory chat with connections will reveal the depth of corruption in racing.
The forum cabal soon tired of explaining sudden inexplicable improvement and equally mysterious collapse of fortunes that I highlighted recently. I am on a crusade on behalf of the public to warn them of the pitfalls of betting.
My advice to them is to shun the path trodden by sheep but to seek the elevated viewpoint with the wolf.
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