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I’m all for people raising genuine instances of suspicion, but citing favourites being beaten as your central point of argument has made you look a prize plum.
Either that or you’ve sank one too many in the ‘Slaughtered Lamb’ my howling friend.
The other side of the coin my Peruvian friend, is the donkey to champion syndrome which had the cabal flummoxed recently.
Is that you observing / supervising the chess match?
I know there are better form readers in this place than I and I wonder what are their reactions when the horses they have painstakingly selected are stuffed by unconsidered rivals.
Don’t take it on the chin, rage against the inner circle and their ingenious plots. Disguised form will always beat you.
The game is not worth the candle.
I am not deterred, they will retire in exhaustion before I accept the preposterous claim that racing is squeaky clean.
Classic straw man argument there. Nobody thinks racing is ‘squeaky clean’ and nobody on this Forum has ever said so. Nobody.
I am on a crusade on behalf of the public to warn them of the pitfalls of betting.
What pitfalls? You were a self-proclaimed highly successful gambler last week!
Mike
I know there are better form readers in this place than I and I wonder what are their reactions when the horses they have painstakingly selected are stuffed by unconsidered rivals.
Speaking personally I just blame myself for backing the wrong horse. To be honest I’m not really that bothered. I know it’s going to happen many times over a long period so why get uptight about it?
Don’t take it on the chin, rage against the inner circle and their ingenious plots.
Actually, that just makes you sound like the nutter on the park bench. Do you shout at buses?
The game is not worth the candle.
Rubbish, racing is brilliant. It’s a lot like sex: when it’s good, it’s fantastic. And when it’s bad, it’s still pretty good.
Let me ask you a question Woolfie.
What were a few of your favourite horses in recent seasons and why?
Mike
I know there are better form readers in this place than I and I wonder what are their reactions when the horses they have painstakingly selected are stuffed by unconsidered rivals.
You’re toying again Woolver Hollow. Orlando the Marmalade – may be Marmite – Punter, after breaking his fast on his great value ginger snaps may well decide the percentage call is to break cover and give you another run for your money: he’s fleet of foot though and I’m still undecided who enjoys giving whom the runaround most – the one who can see or the one who can sniff
I know there are better form readers in this place than I and I wonder what are their reactions when the horses they have painstakingly selected are stuffed by unconsidered rivals.
I refur you to the answer I gave earlier Woolfie…
It may sound to you Woolfie, as if it is a "shock" if a 16/1 shot wins; but there are so many priced at 16/1 or bigger running in a day – that the percentages add up…
If we take Saturday’s 5:25 Ripon as an example:
The winner was 16/1 shot Ambitious Icarus… But there were6 horses
in that race alone at
16/1 or bigger
. These 6:
Ambitious Icarus 16/1 minus bookies mark up = 5%
Ruby’s Day 25/1 minus bookies mark up = 3%
Sunny Side Up 22/1 – mark up = 3.5%
Bronze Beau 22/1 – mark up = 3.5%
Satsuma 25/1 – mark up = 3%
Lost In Paris 22/1 – mark up = 3.5
5 + 3 + 3.5 + 3.5 + 3 + 3.5 = 21.5%So if the market was a correct indication of the horses chances –
a 16/1+ winner in this one race was around 21.5%
, equivalent to
combined
odds of nearly
7/2
. Taking a bookies mark up off the price of the favourite, the 3/1 becomes 23% 100/30.
So the combined odds of a 16/1+ winner in this one race was almost the same as the 3/1 favourite!!!
Therefore, a 16/1 winner is hardly a "shock" Woolfie.
Probabilities/odds mean the biggest shock would be if no outsiders won.
Those outsiders may be
"unconsidered"
to you Woolfie, but not by anyone who takes their betting seriously.
Value Is EverythingThat Gary Moore is up to it again, Marmalady sliding all over the market, any price you like, surely she can’t win, he’s about to make a fortune with the red button… Oh wait she bolted up…
Those outsiders may be
"unconsidered"
to you Woolfie, but not by anyone who takes their betting seriously.
How big a retainer are you receiving to defend racing? Your enthusiasm is too great for a mere amateur who is basically useless at tipping and little better at hedging. What gets you out of bed in the morning?
What gets you out of bed in the morning?
As deep a question as can be posed Lone Woolf and one that has tortured the minds of many an existentialist
If the prospect of darjeeling and marmite accompanied by the snap, crackle and pop of Ginger Snaps, Large Bets and Howling Woolves wasn’t promised I would have become Rip Van Winkle long ago: the gent, not the horse
Thanks
Do Canids roam the Catskills?
Those outsiders may be
"unconsidered"
to you Woolfie, but not by anyone who takes their betting seriously.
How big a retainer are you receiving to defend racing? Your enthusiasm is too great for a mere amateur who is basically useless at tipping and little better at hedging. What gets you out of bed in the morning?
Why shouldn’t anyone
consider
backing a horse at 16/1 or even 100/1 if the punter believes it
value
?
(Sorry, percentage alert
)
Get it through your head Woolfie, any 16/1 shot only needs to be"considered"
better than a 6% chance of winning (actually I’d say 7% with a margin for error) to be
"considered"
a
good bet!
Unless you can understand that, your ramblings will always be illogical.
Value Is Everything
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