- This topic has 46 replies, 12 voices, and was last updated 12 years, 8 months ago by
.
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Saturday is a good day for shock results, hot favourites lose and no hopers hose up at a canter.
Let’s see how many such outcomes we can record today.
Two weeks ago, 8 odds on favourites were beaten on a Saturday. How many will disappoint today?
There wont be any odds on losers in other sports today.
Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
Woolf
I presume you will be laying those odds-on favourites big time today?
Rob
In no particular order rob has just – head, hit, nail, on, the
http://jeanporter.cmswiki.wikispaces.net/file/view/idiom...hit_the_nail_on_the_head.gif/254878970/idiom...hit_the_nail_on_the_head.gif
Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
Saturday is a good day for shock results, hot favourites lose and no hopers hose up at a canter.
Let’s see how many such outcomes we can record today.
Two weeks ago, 8 odds on favourites were beaten on a Saturday. How many will disappoint today?
Who knows? But you bizarrely presume a correlation between beaten favourites / long-priced winners with corruption.
Big-priced winners are a statistical certainty. As are short-priced losers. It is beyond the realms of fantasy to believe that any sport can go for even a relatively short period of time without them occurring. There will be plenty of them in this afternoon’s football.
If you had the slightest knowledge of probability you would understand that it’s a total, absolute mathematical certainty.
Mike
Woolf
I presume you will be laying those odds-on favourites big time today?
Rob
Let’s see if that would be a winning ploy today.
Extremely wealthy backers used to ”buy money” by backing odds on favourites, times have changed. It’s as easy to lose on an odds on shot as on odds against. Bookmakers are of course, delighted.
There wont be any odds on losers in other sports today.
Horse backers really are the mugs of the betting world.
There wont be any odds on losers in other sports today.
Horse backers really are the mugs of the betting world.
I’ve been a Layer for several years now Woolfie,useless as a backer so thanks to the exchanges I dodge away quite nicely laying Odds-on in running mostly…….Am I excused then?
It’s as easy to lose on an odds on shot as on odds against. Bookmakers are of course, delighted.
Utter drivel.
Last two seasons backing all Flat racing odds-on shots would have resulted in a loss of 6.22% of your stakes.
Backing all odds-against shots in the same period would have resulted in a 22.38% loss.
Mike
Not another thread about the same thing.
Make an effort to learn probability Woolfie. You’re making yourself look stupid.
If a punter chooses the right odds-on chances to back he/she will show a profit. Just as, if the punter backs the right outsiders he/she will show a profit.
Now, do you want me to go through the table of odds and chances again?
Value Is EverythingThere wont be any odds on losers in other sports today.
Horse backers really are the mugs of the betting world.
I’ve been a Layer for several years now Woolfie,useless as a backer so thanks to the exchanges I dodge away quite nicely laying Odds-on in running mostly…….Am I excused then?
Avoiding the herd as they tamely queue to be fleeced is an admirable trait.
Not another thread about the same thing.
Make an effort to learn probability Woolfie. You’re making yourself look stupid.
If a punter chooses the right odds-on chances to back he/she will show a profit. Just as, if the punter backs the right outsiders he/she will show a profit.
Now, do you want me to go through the table of odds and chances again?
Your comments would be more plausible if you could offer fewer prospective winners per race, please spare us the value lecture.
How on earth do you stake all the horses you name on a raceday?
Not another thread about the same thing.
Make an effort to learn probability Woolfie. You’re making yourself look stupid.
If a punter chooses the right odds-on chances to back he/she will show a profit. Just as, if the punter backs the right outsiders he/she will show a profit.
Now, do you want me to go through the table of odds and chances again?How do you work out ‘Probability’ as a percentage again Ginge?
3/6 odds on losers is one thing for the bookie but on betfair your looking at 2.12 plus for some and the commission will burn a bit more.
So the nail hit on the head might not be right.Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
Not another thread about the same thing.
Make an effort to learn probability Woolfie. You’re making yourself look stupid.
If a punter chooses the right odds-on chances to back he/she will show a profit. Just as, if the punter backs the right outsiders he/she will show a profit.
Now, do you want me to go through the table of odds and chances again?
Your comments would be more plausible if you could offer fewer prospective winners per race, please spare us the value lecture.
How on earth do you stake all the horses you name on a raceday?
Why is 7 selections on one day too many Woolfie? It takes no time at all.
Why do you make these stupid comments that have everything to do with probabilities/value Woolfie, and then say I am not allowed to talk about "value" (probabilities) to answer them?
No, my arguement would
not
be
"more "plausible if you (I) could offer fewer prospective winners per race".
Because probabilities/value means
every
horse in
every
race is a
"prospective winner"
or at least
possible winner
Woolfie.
All that matters is whether each horse’s available odds makes it (in the punters opinion) worth a bet. If I believe only
one
horse in a race is priced up bigger than my idea of its fair odds – I back just
one
horse. If I believe
two
horses are priced up at bigger than my idea of their fair odds – I back
two
horses etc etc…
I
never
narrow races down Woolfie. I say again, for me
every
horse in a race is a
"prospective"/possible "winner"
. So even if I believe a horse has
the worst
chance of
all
the runners in a race – I will back it if I believe its chance is
under-estimated
by the market. ie If I believe the horse with the
worst
chance of winning has a fair 20/1 chance, yet is available at 33/1 – it
is
a bet!
If I tip a horse it does not mean I think it "will win" Woolfie, it does not even mean I think it has a "good chance" of winning. All it means is I believe it is "underestimated" by the market.
Value Is EverythingNot another thread about the same thing.
Make an effort to learn probability Woolfie. You’re making yourself look stupid.
If a punter chooses the right odds-on chances to back he/she will show a profit. Just as, if the punter backs the right outsiders he/she will show a profit.
Now, do you want me to go through the table of odds and chances again?
Your comments would be more plausible if you could offer fewer prospective winners per race, please spare us the value lecture.
How on earth do you stake all the horses you name on a raceday?
Why is 7 selections on one day too many Woolfie? It takes no time at all.
Why do you make these stupid comments that have everything to do with probabilities/value Woolfie, and then say I am not allowed to talk about "value" (probabilities) to answer them?
No, my arguement would
not
be
"more "plausible if you (I) could offer fewer prospective winners per race".
Because probabilities/value means
every
horse in
every
race is a
"prospective winner"
or at least
possible winner
Woolfie.
All that matters is whether each horse’s available odds makes it (in the punters opinion) worth a bet. If I believe only
one
horse in a race is priced up bigger than my idea of its fair odds – I back just
one
horse. If I believe
two
horses are priced up at bigger than my idea of their fair odds – I back
two
horses etc etc…
I
never
narrow races down Woolfie. I say again, for me
every
horse in a race is a
"prospective"/possible "winner"
. So even if I believe a horse has
the worst
chance of
all
the runners in a race – I will back it if I believe its chance is
under-estimated
by the market. ie If I believe the horse with the
worst
chance of winning has a fair 20/1 chance, yet is available at 33/1 – it
is
a bet!
If I tip a horse it does not mean I think it "will win" Woolfie, it does not even mean I think it has a "good chance" of winning. All it means is I believe it is "underestimated" by the market.
What it means is that you are in anorak territory and successful punters rarely emerge from such a sparse environment.
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