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American goes NH Chase. May help Might Bite get an easier lead mind. More good news for ADO
Hi Pontisback, can I ask where that information came from. I haven’t heard or read anything
yet about American missing the RSA, and there doesn’t seem to be any change in the market, but I’ve
been out for most of the day so perhaps it was mentioned on ATR ?Anyone know why Bellshill is into 8/1 from 12/1? Last I heard he fell in a schooling session in Leopardstown?
What on earth wins the RSA? Practically every horse comes with a big negative attached.
Might Bite‘s Kempton performance would have been stunning if Daryl Jacob hadn’t had his moment of madness. The track doubts are enough to put me off, likewise his rather hesitant round of jumping at Donny.
Alpha Des Obeaux is a bit of an enigma. It’s a little worrying that a horse of his talents has won so few races but he does mix his trips and has kept good company for most of the last two years. Can I really back a possible softie after he bled last time out? Happy to let him win and prove me wrong for his legion of TRF supporters though.
Acapella Bourgeois is one of several front-runners in a potentially savage pace war. It’s hard to take his recent win literally and you’re brave if you’re trusting Roger Loughran to judge the fractions and Sandra Hughes to get one to the race cherry-ripe.
Whisper has staged a mini-revival this season but the figures are way below the best of his hurdles form and he has owed plenty to superb rides from Davy Russell and either non-trying or underperforming rivals. It has all been rather laboured and his price looks bottled up.
Bellshill‘s prep has been diabolical and his Cheltenham record is not encouraging.
I’ve had two each-way potshots against the field. First up is Royal Vacation 12/1 e/w. His midfield-racing style, efficient jumping and stamina make the ideal type to pick up the pieces, as he has done twice already this season. Obviously a lack of class is the worry, but he went some way towards allaying those fears with his latest win taking him to an official rating in the 150s. He’d be far from a vintage winner but that sums up this year’s crop.
Along similar lines, Our Kaempfer 16/1 e/w is in the squad too. His jumping isn’t quite as assured and class is also a concern, but his Kempton win was highly impressive and his strong-travelling hold-up style and stamina will certainly play well here. His participation is a positive indicator in itself, with the Longsdon yard rarely seen to run a horse out of its depth in top company.
I’m not dogmatic about these and might be a bit red-faced when they’re 30 lengths back turning for home!
Might Bite‘s Kempton form is the best on offer, but does he jump well enough? Is he a flat course horse? Still have made a main bet at current odds had he been likely to get an easy lead (front run on all chase starts). I think his jumping may well fall apart if (as expected) Acapella Bourgeois goes on. Am sure Nico will try to give AB a few lengths to “head the pack”. But will the others allow that? Might save on Might Bite if 4/1 or bigger, but not a main bet. Acapella Bougeois ran away with from rivals last time, may be forced to go too fast too early here and possibly best on softer aswell. Alpha Des Obeaux is another prominent racer, importantly does not need to lead. Has the best 2016 hurdle form, second to Thistlecrack in Stayers. Truth is nowhere near that form over fences – yet. Best run 4 1/2 lengths third to Coney Island over inadequate 2 1/2 miles in Grade 1 Drinmore. Will do better at 3m. Reportedly bled last time but I am sceptical on that. Stable were out of form, as they have been most if not all season… up until now! Mouse Morris usually wins very few races at most times of the year, but when ctually in form his horses improve enormously. Remember the two Nationals last year? I know a lot of you have massive prices, I’m happy with 6/1. Biggest bet though is the favourite’s stable companion, Whisper @ 7/1. Form over fences has been at 2 1/2, but is a Grade 1 hurdler at 3m and very best hurdle form in Spring on goodish ground. Could easily improve on this season’s winter/soft form and is a hold up horse. They could go too quick here and set it up for a closer. Because of that, did think about Bellshill, but has a poor Cheltenham record. Aurillac, Heron Heights, Marinero and O O Seven don’t look good enough. Royal Vacation is going the right way, but that when Tizzard was in good form. Quite like Our Kaempfer as an outsider, looked on the up when winning at Kempton and seemingly bypassed good handicap opportunities for this – saver @ 16/1. My third main bet is rank outsider Briery Belle, might need to be held on to over this trip, but has raced as if this longer distance could suit. Worth a speculative wager @ 40+/1.
Value Is EverythingI can’t desert Might Bite, Ginger, biggest danger Alpha Des Obeaux if clicks and peaks as in last year’s Stayers (Mouse is in form). If both blow out – Whisper. Would be concerned re stableform of Longsdon & Daly (+ how can Briery Belle turn round the form with Whisper last time!)
I can’t desert Might Bite, Ginger, biggest danger Alpha Des Obeaux if clicks and peaks as in last year’s Stayers (Mouse is in form). If both blow out – Whisper. Would be concerned re stableform of Longsdon & Daly (+ how can Briery Belle turn round the form with Whisper last time!)
When working out what price I’m willing to take, GM; it includes likelihood of running to form. Usually make horses with suspect trainer form only “savers” eg Longsden/OK. You’re right, am a bit concerned about Daly too. Think BB is worth taking a chance with a “main bet”, as a main bet @ 40/1 is as small as most savers. On “form” she should not reverse placings with Whisper, however it’s all about price… Did not run to form that day, didn’t jump as well as she can and allowed to come home in own time. Before that had made a pretty good start to career. Has also been racing at 2 1/2 miles; possibility she can improve at 3m. Emphasise I don’t think she’ll reverse the form; imo has around a 3.5% chance of winning.
Value Is EverythingThere’s no evidence to suggest Acapella Bourgeois won’t act on the ground although there’s a fair chance he’s better on deep. Stark choice here is do you give him full credit for that victory last time or not? I’m happy to do so and had a decent bet on him after that race. He looks a classic rhythm horse from the front – the type that can excel here.
I fear Might Bite. I can’t see much wrong with his jumping – jockey was to blame for that Kempton spill.
Please, Alpha Des Obeaux. Please. I’ll shower you with sugar lumps.
After a rough first day I echo the above. This is the one result today that can propel me back to life.
I can’t desert Might Bite, Ginger, biggest danger Alpha Des Obeaux if clicks and peaks as in last year’s Stayers (Mouse is in form). If both blow out – Whisper. Would be concerned re stableform of Longsdon & Daly (+ how can Briery Belle turn round the form with Whisper last time!)
Whilst I agree, I also thought the same about Apples Jade and Limini……
There’s no evidence to suggest Acapella Bourgeois won’t act on the ground although there’s a fair chance he’s better on deep.
Eh?
I don’t get it, Joe.If there were “no evidence” how can you yourself believe there’s a “fair chance”?
Value Is EverythingGood luck to you guys on Alpha Des Obeaux I think the whole forum are on
Looks a very decent race on paper, hard to call I like about 4 of them a lot Alpha, Bellshill, Might Bite but have 0 0 Seven at 33’s and 25’s aswell as in The ten to follow and vs Pricewise comp so I’ll be cheering him on.Blackbeard to conquer the World
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