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Can’t do links on this rubbish phone but there’s a cracking feature just gone up on racing uk page….the winner if he lines up!
Don Poli has very solid looking form. The ground might be the only issue but I think what he has achieved is miles ahead of anything King’s Palace has done.
Nothing that ran behind Kings Palace in his first two races this season has won and he landed a farce of a match at 2/13 Fav next time. I just can’t have him.
At the odds I have to side with Coneygree at twice the odds of Don Poli (5/1)
I think he’s been hyped up for the Gold Cup but he could take the catching in the RSA. Sense should prevail and see him run here.
If both the others turn up I see Kings Palace as a big lay on the day.
“Form” is not about “winners” Steve.
Drop Out Joe finished 29 lengths 3rd to Kings Palace at Cheltenham giving him 5 lbs, so comes out 24 lbs worse than Kings Palceae. DOJ went on to be 7 lengths 2nd off a mark of 132 in the Grimthorpe.
Knock House beaten 38 lengths by Kings Palace giving him 5 lbs, so 33 lbs inferior to Kings Palace… Went on to be just 1 1/2 lengths 2nd off a mark of 133, in a limited Class 3 handicap at Kempton.
Sausalito Sunrise has not won another race purely because he took on Kings Palace again, coming out a 10 lbs worse horse than Kings Palace. Sausalito then Fell in his only other race took on Coneygree at Kempton. Too far out to be sure of where he’d have finished, but going encouragingly well at the time.
Return Spring’s jumping has fallen apart in his two races since, arguably taking on established handicappers in a big field too soon.
Vivaldi Collonges (like Sausalito) has not won because of taking on Kings Palace again in his only run since.
What if Drop Out Joe, Knock House, Sausalito Sunrise, Return Spring and Vivaldi Collonges taken on poor horses afterwards and won?
Also,
Coneygree is only “twice the odds of Don Poli (5/1)” without NRNB. Odds take in to account the chance of not running in the RSA.Value Is EverythingMost of Don Poli’s form has been on soft/heavy. Yes, he did win at last year’s Festival on quicker ground but a reproduction of that performance is unlikely to be good enough in the RSA. He doesn’t really have much form at the shorter distance and it looked as if he needed all of the trip and testing ground to beat what might be a suspect stayer last time. Yes, there is a possibility he may be very good but on the limited evidence he looks far from bombproof at the current 5/2.
He hasn’t had the chance to run on decent ground too often. His win last year might not be good enough here but it was a career best at the time and I’d expect plenty of improvement from that. His chase form looks rock solid to me. I’ve a big soft spot for Apache Stronghold but even if the Topaz was run over 2m 6f I think Don Poli would have found more to hold him of, he wasn’t doing a tap in front. I also think he’s quicker than he’s given credit for, and the Topaz was not simply a case of Apache Stronghold not staying. He’s lazy but he answers every call when asked, exactly the type you want in what could well be a real war of a race this year if Coneygree and Kings Palace run.
I’d prefer Coneygree to Kings Palace but would his supporters be concerned about the prospect of decent ground?
Coneygree wont be part of multiples on Mullins horses either, which is why I think Don Poli is as short as he is….come the moment they are lining up to start, I’m convinced Coneygree will be favourite….he’s been extremely well backed on course on all 3 starts this season and think he will be again….providing he does line up of course…
Coneygree wont be part of multiples on Mullins horses either, which is why I think Don Poli is as short as he is….come the moment they are lining up to start, I’m convinced Coneygree will be favourite….he’s been extremely well backed on course on all 3 starts this season and think he will be again….providing he does line up of course…
I do think Coneygree will be well backed on the day Zamorston and imo deserves to be favourite. But with the next 3 Irish horses in the betting, Valseur Lido, Vautor and Very Wood all going elsewhere. Unlikely to be any other Irish starting less than 20/1. Vast majority of Irish money wil be on Don.
Value Is Everything<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>Zamorston wrote:</div>
Coneygree wont be part of multiples on Mullins horses either, which is why I think Don Poli is as short as he is….come the moment they are lining up to start, I’m convinced Coneygree will be favourite….he’s been extremely well backed on course on all 3 starts this season and think he will be again….providing he does line up of course…I do think Coneygree will be well backed on the day Zamorston and imo deserves to be favourite. But with the next 3 Irish horses in the betting, Valseur Lido, Vautor and Very Wood all going elsewhere. Unlikely to be any other Irish starting less than 20/1. Vast majority of Irish money wil be on Don.
Wounded Warrior is not without a chance and he could easily go off 10 or 12/1.
Patrick Mullins 3 hours ago when asked where Don Poli would run……wishful thinking on riding it maybe?
“I hope in the NH Chase but we will have to talk to Gigginstown. The easier race is the NH race as the RSA looks very hot this year.”
Considering the rubbish ride he gave Suntiep in last yrs 4 miler, patrick Mullins would be lucky to any ride. Backed him at ~10-1, lay so far behind it was ricdulous, would have won in another 100 yds.
Don Poli looks the business. Mullins describes him as lazy and he certainly looked that last time, but won, I thought, with plenty in hand. His jumping looks accomplished, although they always look to me to go a very steady pace in Ireland and I think a few of the Irish fencers might get caught out by the fast ground and fast pace – I hope DP is not one of them. If he did go in the 4-miler, there’d be no worries about going too fast.
They must have gone a bit slower in Don Poli’s last win as the time was 40 seconds slower than Coneygree’s win at Newbury….not sure of the relative course/goings etc….although I don’t think Newbury was a bad soft that day?
He also ran a tremendous time in the Feltham on only his second start over fences….a race he could quite easily have bounced in after backing up from over 600 days off…..everything points to him being an outstanding novice….capable of galloping this field into the ground.
I don’t see the ground being a problem as it surely will be no quicker than good, with every possibility of a little bit of cut in it still….he’s proved already he can go a good gallop and jump brilliantly at the same time…he was asked a question by Dell Arca on his comeback run when that one ranged up and looked like he would go past pretty easily….on his first start back you could excuse that though….he responded superbly anyway to run on strongly all the way to the line…
He’s stepped up twice since then and never been asked a question….coasted home both times….I just cannot see a weakness in him at all….potentially the best I’ve seen for a long time….
Haven’t seen much of DP over fences but I believe he’ll have to be a bloody good ‘un, if not better than that, to beat Coneygree.
Is anyone here privvy to whether Coneygree goes here or Gold cup,personally i’d like to see horses kept to Novice company but when i think of it the Gold cup could suit better,in here Kings Palace is sure to look to lead and he and Coneygree could end up setting it up nicely for Don Poli,in the Gold Cup he could get an easy lead as although Road to Riches can lead i’ve heard Cooper say he’d be just as happy to drop him in like he did last time
I dont get the angle that Coneygree and Kings Palace will set it up for Don Poli? Coneygree has proved the last twice he just gets into a nice rythmn…whether that be in first or second….he settles well and just puts his head down and jumps and gallops….I just cannot see a scenario where he is treading water after the last….on all we’ve seen of him the question should surely be will Don Poli and Kings Palace…and the rest be able to keep up! He wont be stopping after the last anyway…much more likely to be bounding clear..
I dont get the angle that Coneygree and Kings Palace will set it up for Don Poli? Coneygree has proved the last twice he just gets into a nice rythmn…whether that be in first or second….he settles well and just puts his head down and jumps and gallops….I just cannot see a scenario where he is treading water after the last….on all we’ve seen of him the question should surely be will Don Poli and Kings Palace…and the rest be able to keep up! He wont be stopping after the last anyway…much more likely to be bounding clear..
Coneygree doesn’t jump badly when half a length behind Zamorston, but jumping has been exceptional when in front. Kings Palace also looks best in front, made mistakes at open ditches last time but generally very good. Both are similar horses and there must be a chance they will take each other on. Arguably Coneygree went off too quick at Kempton in a similar situation. Had main rivals not fallen it might have been a different outcome. Kings Palace went off too quick in the Albert Bartlett; so both have history of going too quick when taken on.
To achieve its best performance rating horses need to race at a similar pace throughout. To an extent it does not matter that Coneygree is a stayer; IF the two take each other on and go too fast early then there’s no doubt Coneygree will be “stopping after the last”. Although whether he’ll be stopping at less of a rate than his rivals remains to be seen. Certainly an overly strong pace from the two main rivals will suit Don Poli if it does happen.
Value Is EverythingEddie o leary confirms both Don Poli and Very wood go here.
Swings and roundabouts. Plenty of punters will be happy with the Don Poli decision but a fair few will have done their money on Very Wood in the National Hunt Chase. The ground should be more in his favour than pretty much anything else and given a similar ride to last year it wouldn’t be that much of a surprise if he ran another decent race.
“Form” is not about “winners” Steve.
Drop Out Joe finished 29 lengths 3rd to Kings Palace at Cheltenham giving him 5 lbs, so comes out 24 lbs worse than Kings Palceae. DOJ went on to be 7 lengths 2nd off a mark of 132 in the Grimthorpe.
Knock House beaten 38 lengths by Kings Palace giving him 5 lbs, so 33 lbs inferior to Kings Palace… Went on to be just 1 1/2 lengths 2nd off a mark of 133, in a limited Class 3 handicap at Kempton.
Sausalito Sunrise has not won another race purely because he took on Kings Palace again, coming out a 10 lbs worse horse than Kings Palace. Sausalito then Fell in his only other race took on Coneygree at Kempton. Too far out to be sure of where he’d have finished, but going encouragingly well at the time.
Return Spring’s jumping has fallen apart in his two races since, arguably taking on established handicappers in a big field too soon.
Vivaldi Collonges (like Sausalito) has not won because of taking on Kings Palace again in his only run since.
What if Drop Out Joe, Knock House, Sausalito Sunrise, Return Spring and Vivaldi Collonges taken on poor horses afterwards and won?
Also,
Coneygree is only “twice the odds of Don Poli (5/1)” without NRNB. Odds take in to account the chance of not running in the RSA.Form is about whatever the person reading it chooses to take from it.
There is no “Thou shalt read the form book as the Lord God sayeth” commandment that came down from the mountain carved into a stone strapped to Moses’ back.
I have my own theories and will have my own preferences until the day I die.
Kings Palace has run in three chases, the field sizes have been 5, 4 and 2 runners. None of those who ran behind him won afterwards.
You can read from that whatever you wish in terms of lengths and pounds but I don’t like the look of the form. It’s all about personal preference and I dislike entering areas of the form book where you start dealing with big numbers in terms of distances beaten and weight given or received.
I tend to distrust performances of horses who get beaten a long way in races. You can extrapolate all the scales and pounds per length charts all that you wish and argue that one performance is as good as another in theory on the extra weight equating to a certain rating, but I am never going to trust examples where horses are thrashed in a race where they were clearly out of their depth.
People can disagree with me if they wish, that is totally fine but it is my belief that a horse, who runs two lengths behind one horse and then, for example, runs 4 lengths behind another horse, is always going to be a more reliable read over from one race to the other, than a horse who gets beaten 25 lengths behind a horse before being beaten 30 lengths by the second horse.
It is my belief, that when we enter an area of discussion where we are talking about horses who are being thrashed, it begs the question of when a horse gets out of his depth in a race and is way behind and tiring, often pretty much spent, how reliable is it to compare it to either another race where he was similarly out of his depth, or to a race where he faced horses nearer his own ability and could race at a pace more conducive to his talent.
Handicapping is far from being an exact science. If it were so, the bookies would be out of business. I have my own way of looking at races and deciding if I think the form will work out or not. Like everyone else I am incorrect quite a bit of the time but I have made some successful conclusions for a bet and for a lay over the thirty odd years I have been punting.
I don’t buy form guides but can understand fully why other people do. I am not a professional and doing my own picking is most of the fun for me. I don’t even buy the Racing Post and do most of my selecting based on watching the races and picking the bones out of it for myself. I would never put any serious money on a horse based solely on someone else’s race report, or a comparison of ratings. I would need to see the races for myself and decide based on my own opinion.
Getting back to Kings Palace, I just don’t think he’s done enough to make him a horse I fancy for the RSA. His small field form just doesn’t excite me much. I appreciate that Drop Out Joe was runner up in The Grimthorpe, but, as I said on the Grand National thread, I felt that the form might be more Grim, than Thorpe, this year. Drop Out Joe was joint fav there but Wayward Prince was a somewhat surprising and relatively comfortable winner, several horses made errors, the other joint favourite went wrong and was pulled up, a couple of runners were hampered, including Night In Milan, who weakened in his attempt to give Drop Out Joe a stone, conceding the second place and ruling himself out of Grand National contention, in my eyes at least, in the process.
I prefer Don Poli’s form in terms of solidity and it will not surprise me if he proves the ratings that have him 2 lbs behind Kings Palace on 154 to be incorrect. He is half the odds of the Pipe horse with some firms, so some people must agree with the notion. Of course we could all be wrong but that’s what the game is all about.
I take your point about the Coneygree bet being all in, rather than NRNB but thought I had made it clear that I fully expect that sense will prevail and that he will run here. For me that is a better risk/reward ratio than backing Don Poli at the increasingly skinny odds.
Coneygree for me and if he doesn’t line up I won’t have another bet in the race.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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