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I’ll probably get nailed for this after reading previous posts, but I’m still not giving up on First Lieutenant. 20/1 looks good to me despite a dodgy season so far
I’ll probably get nailed for this after reading previous posts, but I’m still not giving up on First Lieutenant. 20/1 looks good to me despite a dodgy season so far
He’s better on Good ground, and the stable have been in poor form all season
The major advantage you have with First Lieutenant is his love of Cheltenham, year after year we remember there is no form like Festival form
With Grand Crus heading for the Gold Cup (a year too early me thinks) First Liuetenant will go off at less than 10s so 20s will look very good indeed.
My 2 against the field are First Liuetenant and Silviano Conti or Rangitoto (whichever one he sends)
Nicholls has said that Silviniaco Conti will miss Cheltenham and go to Aintree instead.
Sir Des Champs is trading at 44 for this, so it looks like he’s Jewson bound.
Nicholls has said that Silviniaco Conti will miss Cheltenham and go to Aintree instead.
Sir Des Champs is trading at 44 for this, so it looks like he’s Jewson bound.
…………Leaving a perfect Giggs void for First Lieutenant
seriously boys get on!Thought I’d look into the future chasing success at the Cheltenham Festival of those who finished 1st and 2nd in the Neptune since 1988. That’s 22 renewals I looked at, so 44 horses. And of those 44 horses, only 13 ran over fences at the Festival.
Just 2 winners; Tidal Bay in the Arkle and Denman in the RSA.
The full form figures; F3F476FF3P756P131463
What struck me was just how many horses stayed over hurdles for a while, most for the rest of their careers. It’s a speed race for hurdlers with a bit of stamina, not for future chasers. Worth noting that the 2 future chase winners both finished 2nd, not 1st.
Rock on Ruby, Oscars Wells and So Young all look like Grade 1 Festival Hurdle contenders, so either they’re so slow that they were beaten by a future chaser or First Lieutenant is a very quick hurdler who isn’t designed to be chasing.
Interesting form line Zarks, but I must say I’d still have to be happy with my selection, especially at the price. I’m doing my RSA scouting ignoring Grands Crus, as the longer time goes on, the more likely it seems that the Gold Cup is his destination. I’d have to say nothing else other than possibly Bobs Worth, strikes me as a potential winner.
Saying that, my early vested interest could have given me rose tinted spectacles
"Zarkava" wrote: Rock on Ruby, Oscars Wells and So Young all look like Grade 1 Festival Hurdle contenders, so either they’re so slow that they were beaten by a future chaser or First Lieutenant is a very quick hurdler who isn’t designed to be chasing.
OR
Oscars Well’s mistake at the last beat him, Rock On Ruby was outstayed, and So Young simply was not quick enough.
Can’t see Last Instalment out of the first three. Heart wants Bobs Worth to win, something tells me he might be a Burton’s Port and just find a couple too good on the day.
I know for a fact that he has been put away after christmas and being kept for the RSA,a mate of mine knows Davy and he told us before the drinmore he’d beat Bog Warrior by 100yrds.He loves this horse so he’ll definitly ride he’ll go off at about 8’s on the day
Nice form boost for Hidden Cyclone with the runner-up from his debut, Shot From The Hip, winning today.
Shot From The Hip was not the runner up in Hidden Cyclone’s race Zarkava, but a nice form boost alright.
Bobs Worth was beaten just over 5 lengths by Grands Crus who will be going for the Gold Cup. This form alone is good enough to win the RSA.
He will improve for going left handed, has had a breathing operation, will stay every yard and has plenty of pace having beaten the very speedy Cue Card and Rock on Ruby and winning all his 3 races at Cheltenham.
His price has gone from a best 12/1 after his last race with Billy Hill down to 4/1 with the same firm despite doing zippo.
With Barry Geraghty on board he will go off even shorter.
I think i speak for a lot of people that it will be great if Grands Crus goes for the gold cup. one step closer for Bobs worth. I think he could reverse with him but nicer not to have to.
Do think it is mistake taking the novice chaser to gold cup, too much of a gamble. Long Run for example was appallingly novicey in the RSA he lost.
French-bred horses in general have an appalling record in the RSA. Yes Star De Mohaison and Hussard Collonges won, but aside from those 2 being the only 2 in the past 20 years to do so, they were also unbelievably bad renewals.
19 ran in 2002 – only 6 finished. The winner, Hussard Collonges, prepped by finishing 2nd in a novice handicap and never won another race afterwards. Just a horrible race, everything about it.
Star De Mohaison won an equally eventful and pitiful renewal whilst getting a 10lb pull for being only 5 at the time. 15 ran and 7 finished. Commercial Flyer went off 9/2f after only one start. Idle Talk finished 2nd with Darkness in 3rd.
But if you look at the French-breds who have failed. Long Run, Punchestowns, Mikael d’Haguenet, Quel Esprit, Pomme Tiepy, Ungaro, Turko, Dom D’Orgeval, L’Ami, Tribal Venture, Jair Du Cochet, Iris Royal, Innox, Japhet, Jimmy Tennis, Lady Cricket, Escartefigue, Fulip, Iznogoud, Eudipe, Djeddah, Banjo, Sweet Duke, Iznogoud. Most of those went off at 12/1 or less. There are several more who also failed at bigger prices.
And when you look at those to have failed in the RSA and subsequently went on to do great things; One Man, Wayward Lad, Little Owl, Rhyme N Reason, What A Friend, Carruthers. You can also add Long Run and Quel Esprit to that list now.
I thought Bob’s Worth’s chase debut was impressive and e-mailed a friend saying I’d get on at 12s, but he was 10s in 1 place and 8s everywhere else. I also thought his run in the Feltham was very encouraging, but he was still only 8/1 and there’s just no chance of me backing him now at the price he is. Feltham placed horses have an excellent record in the RSA but I just couldn’t touch him at the price and I’m very happy with Hidden Cyclone at 25s.
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