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At the moment Dalvina interests me. Nothing went right for her in the Oaks but previous Newmarket run puts her in the frame and technically in front of the cumani horse
Im not sure why All my loving seemingly didnt stay last time (bred for it surely0 and wonder about resolution
Other good bet could be Yeats to really pull away and win by 3 plus lengths. Yet to find a price though
All My Loving no doubt has 2 solid runs behind her but she is still a big lay at 6/4 imo.
Dont know where my post went.
2.30 Warsaw<br>3.05 Silkwood<br>3.45 Yeats<br>4.20 Buccellati<br>4.55 Kid Mambo<br>5.30 Record Breaker
Come on Aidan if you are to start a thread like this then don’t be lazy and just pick 6 horses, if you want respect as a tipster you should explain why you fancy them.
Betfair set there line on the distance at 1.75 for any horse, doubt you’ll get much bigger than 1.85 for over
Have done on my blog but OK.
2.30 WARSAW<br>Has really caught my eye in his two victories and his trainer always thought a lot of him. The third in his last race was third again this time in the Queen Mary. He is a little powerhouse and think with O’Brien in such good form at Ascot is a cracking bet.
3.05 SILKWOOD<br>A filly who is improving with every run and last time won a shade cosily at Sandown. I don’t think Jarvis would stick her in here if he thought she had no chance and I just would oppose the Oaks fillies though perhaps Dalvina didn’t give her true running.
3.45 YEATS<br>Unbeaten at 2m+ in the UK and all these horses have tried and failed to beat him. Very hard to oppose him and a quality horse.
4.20 BUCCELLATI<br>Needs everything to drop right for him but, on a straight track his jockey has more chance to get him covered up then finish with a late rattle. Has a feather weight and is in good form. Would fancy Artmino but the stables form isn’t the best.
4.55 KID MAMBO<br>If over his Derby exertions (which I am told his by a friend of the trainers son he is) he should win this hands down. He led the Derby field until the final furlong where class and stamina told. He should relish the step down to 10f and the one to beat.
5.30 RECORD BREAKER<br>A race that Mark Johnston loves and I think this is his best chance of the week. The way he battled on his last run suggested he is a typical Johnston horse and will improve for that run. I think Johnston has withdrawn a few of his horses to get this one in and off 8-7 should take all the beating.
(Edited by aidanldrebin at 9:00 pm on June 20, 2007)
No reason for me to think that All My Loving didn’t stay last time. She was simply beaten by 2 better fillies, as she had been behind Light Shift in the Cheshire Oaks. She did to be fair to her, pull 5 lengths clear of the fourth, in the process showing form good enough to win a typical Ribblesdale and on the back of just 3 runs I think she’ll take the world of beating.
Neither Dalvina or Cosmodrome are sure to stay on pedigree but the way they both run suggests they probably will. Similar comments apply to Silkwood who looks to fill the profile of the sort of filly that often wins this, the later maturing type that wasn’t quite ready for an Oaks prep.
In the Norfolk, Winker Watson by all accounts has been working the house but I really don’t like his form. The time was ordinary and nothing of note has emerged. Warsaw has the stronger claims of the 2 shorties, particularly after The Loan Express figured so well in the Queen Mary, but I’m really excited about Bespoke Boy. He looked a monster at Ripon (albeit with the benefit of the rail) but confirmed those impressions in the Woodcote, looking sure to win until tying up in the last few strides. I think the drop to 5f will be the making of him and think he represents tremendous value at around 10/1. If he was trained by Chapple-Hyam or O’Brien he’d be favourite, but for me Haslam is one of the shrewdest operators in the game and I really like the fact he has his first go at the minimum trip tomorrow.
Don’t think that the Britannia is anywhere near so competitive as the numbers suggest. Can’t really see past the 2 favourites and make Artimino a maximum bet. I’ve been waiting to back this horse for that race since he was so unlucky at the track in a 7f nursery last year and I think he’s had the perfect prep for the race. 11/2 looks a good price.
There’s plenty of dangers in the King George V Handicap, but Record Breaker is receiving weight from all of his rivals and runs from a mark of 86. Hard to believe that this half-brother to Irish Oaks winner Vintage Tipple won’t have a mark in the 100’s by the end of the season so I’ll be backing him too at 8/1.<br>
Winker Watson. Reportedly slamming older sprinters at home and has come on a ton for his debut run. Chapple-Hyam adores him and man of the moment Fortune gets the ride.
DJ
Dont you think that PCH has a good line on Bespoke Boy through declaration of war though?
Bit harsh on Winker’s (careful how i typed that…with DJ in mind :biggrin: ) form when he won as he pleased maybe?
clivex
Horses that win weak races impressively generally start too short on their next start. Don’t get me wrong, Winker Watson is potentially very good, as I understand he’s been working better than Dutch Art. But they have to do it on the racetrack. I dare say that if Winker Watson runs to the level that Chapple-Hyam expects him to he’ll win. But he’s awfully short for a horse that has probably run to somewhere in the mid to high 80’s on bare form on his debut.
From your posts in the past, you’ve said you place plenty of credence in trainer comments. Personally I don’t (unless they back up a conlusion I’ve already reached!!:biggrin:), so taking into account his form, potential, pedigree, trainer and price, I’d rather be against Winker Watson at 5/2 than with him. <br>
I agree with DJ about BESPOKE BOY. Ran a blinder at Epsom even without handling the bend at all well and is good value here I think. I also like RALLYING CRY who has run close in better races than this, seems to go well fresh and will appreciate the step up to a mile and a quarter.
Trainer changes are a negative for me with Rallying Cry. Though he’ll be better back on turf having clearly not taking to Nad Al Sheba’s dirt (winner on polytrack). Hard to be too dogmatic about that race, though I think the pair with arguably the best form, Kid Mambo and Al Shemali, are vulnerable to improvers. I thought this race looked ideal for Desert Dew after his run behidn Admiralofthefleet at Chester so think I’ll end up having a few quid on him.
Agree about Bespoke Boy. Looks like he’s being nibbled at and I can see Pricewise putting this horse up tomorrow just to bring the price down a bit! Also Frankie’s on it so have taken the 10.5 available tonight.
I’ve backed Desert Dew in the Hampton Court. He easily beat Zaham 1st time up and still looked a bit green last time at Chester. My only worry would be the form of the stable.
Finally, although the Brittania isn’t normally a race I would get involved in, I might have a little bit on Furnace. He ran a good race first time up, will probably enjoy this trip better and might enjoy a big field as he had when winning his maiden.
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