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Richard Dunwoody writes a bi-weekly article for The Racing Forum. Last column he gave three tips for the National, they finished first, third and fifth so Richard is on fine form and I know a few of you were on.
This week, as the jumping season draws to a close, Richard turns his attention to the flat and, in particular, the 2,000 Guineas and Frankel.
Looking ahead to the 2,000 Guineas and Frankel’s chances and it looks like the opposition may not be too strong at Newmarket on Saturday week.
Already we have seen the defection of Godolphin’s Dubai Prince (with a pelvic injury) and Richard Fahey has run out of time with Wootton Bassett, who looks certain to head to France for their Guineas.
Even allowing for the likelihood of Pathfork and any number of Aidan O’Brien’s colts turning up on the Rowley Mile, it will be surprising if Frankel does not start one of the shortest-priced post-war favourites for the 2000 Guineas.
Nijinsky was a 4-7 chance when he prevailed in 1970. And while connections are reluctant to put him in that category, Frankel looks a very special colt.
Can he be as good as Vincent O’Brien’s champion?
Many consider that Sea Bird II was the greatest colt of the modern era. But Nijinsky ran eight times against Sea-Bird’s five. All but two of Nijinsky’s three-year-old races were outside Ireland. He faced international competition at Newmarket, Epsom, Ascot, Doncaster, Longchamp and Newmarket again, with the Irish Derby thrown in. All in one season.
Ireland’s greatest Flat champion, Nijinsky won the Triple Crown – 2,000 Guineas, Derby and St Leger – in 1970, the first since Bahram in 1935, and may well be the last colt to do so.
Flat racing is littered with the remnants of over-hyped horses – you only have to go back to this time last year when many were hailing St Nicholas Abbey as a wonder horse – and while it is a boring platitude, nothing can make a fool of a man like a horse.
It is easy to get carried away by the hype. After all, Frankel justified the tag when romping away with the Greenham Stakes at Newbury last weekend. Sure, he looked a bit keen in the early stages, but that was perhaps to be expected.
Nijinsky never started at odds-against until the Derby, where he suffered after a little-known colic scare 24 hours before the race. He then produced a superb turn of foot at Epsom to beat Gyr by two and a half lengths and then sauntered to an Irish Derby victory.
His most impressive display came in the King George, in which he a beat the previous year’s winner Blakeney without turning a hair, and then took the St Leger with ease.
Officially rated at 140 in 1970, he suffered an attack of ringworm before the St Leger and that took its toll. He was past his best when suffering two shock defeats in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe and in the Champion Stakes, where he got uptight beforehand.
I don’t see Frankel as a St Leger horse, though it would be interesting to see a horse land a Triple Crown again. I doubt there will be a Triple Crown contender until more prize money is put up – the Arc and the Breeders’ Cup are more lucrative from a stud value perspective, anyway.
Frankel’s record now stands at five wins from five starts, with all his victories coming at either the seven or eight-furlong trip
It is easy to see why many are questioning Frankel’s ability to stay a mile and a half – he needs to learn to settle better early on and one reader of TRF noted that he has a ‘burgeoning tendency to hang right under pressure’.Frankel’s pedigree is an interesting one; his mother was a speedy 5f and 6f animal by Danehill, but he does have Powerscourt in his pedigree, and his second dam won the Lancashire Oaks.
Frankel’s father is the ultra-tough Galileo. While there is some guesswork about his ability to stay further than 10 furlongs, there is plenty there to think he can.
I think many people would love to see him run in the Derby, but I would not be in a rush to take the current 4-1 odds, simply because there is too much doubt he will run.
Henry Cecil also has the Derby in mind for World Domination, who is in the same Khalid Abdulla ownership.
The Prince’s racing manager, Teddy Grimthorpe, said: “We will have to see how he does in the Guineas. The horse will tell Henry and Henry will then tell the rest of us. All we can say is that he’s in the Derby and it is a vital race.
“If Henry thought he ought to run in the Derby, he would run him.”
One thing’s certain: I can’t wait to see him run in the Guineas.After he’s won, the debate can really begin!
Richard Dunwoody
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A well written piece by Richard.
I remember Nijinsky as if it was yesterday. A magnificent horse in every sense and had it not been for his bout of ringworm during the summer, and the unfortunate mis-judged ride by Lester Piggott in Arc, I have little doubt he would be hailed alongside Sea-Bird as horse of the century.
Frankel is a different type of horse from Nijinsky – he being more bull- like in his conformation, and although Nijinsky was the more highly strung of the two, the expectations and the hype surrounding both were of a similar nature. I distinctly recall a feeling of almost universal confidence before the 1970 2,000 Guineas that Nijinsky would take that race with the minimum of fuss, which he duly did.
There was also concerns among breeding analysts and journalists that Nijinsky might not get the Derby trip – which may explain why he started odds against at Epsom for his first and only time.
Frankel may or may not get the Derby trip: that remains to be seen, although my own feeling is that he won’t stay a yard beyond 10 furlongs at most. With all due respect to Tom Queally, Frankel will not have the calibre of jockey on his back that Nijinsky did – i.e. one who can settle and cajole his charge even in the most tense of situations – and who can utilise every ounce of stamina and speed from his charge.
In conclusion, I think Frankel will prove to be a star over mile and will be rightly hailed for his efforts. To go on and win even one major middle distance race would be a great achievement on his part.
Will Frankel be spoken in the same breath as Nijinsky when this season is over ? As much as I will that to be the case, it pains me to say that I cannot foresee that happening.
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The main aspect of Frankel’s make-up that may or may not stop him reaching the heights of the greats is his ‘pulling hard in a race’ tendencies. It’s not easy to imagine him emptying pretty quickly if Tom Queally can’t restrain him at Epsom (if he does indeed go for the Derby). It was obvious in the Greenham that Queally tried to settle the colt but it proved fruitless and he simply had to let him go on. He clearly had a massive class advantage over the rest of the field but that class advantage will be reduced when he meets a stronger calibre of opposition as the season wears on. Is he so far ahead of everyone else that it doesn’t matter how much he pulls early on? I’d be surprised but like everyone else I can’t wait to see!!
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