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I’m not expecting a huge amount from Labour either but they certainly won’t make things any worse. The Tories undoubtedly will (as they have been for years now) and I think people are finally waking up to that.
In politics it’s generally a case of the ‘least bad’ option more than the ‘best’ option and realistically that is Labour given that we are stuck with what is effectively a two party choice. My vote is still odds on to go elsewhere though.
Oh, and expect Labour to outline 5 or 6 key aims/goals, in a short, sharp bullet point-like campaign.
SKS will steer his troops away from long-winded campaigning.
My advice to him is avoid TV interview with Andrew Neil, because he’ll rip all the leaders apart, like AN did to Corbyn in the 2019 GE campaign.I mean Ferrari made Davey look a right plonk yday on LBS over willies.
I’m currently expecting a Labour Majority, but not on the scale of 1997.
Apparently Maria Miller, my local MP, is vulnerable in what is traditionally a safe Conservative seat.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"So Boris has sacked his lawyers as they are ones who found evidence of further parties and handed it over to the enquiry ……welcome to politics 2023
Pick 3 on Saturday champion 2025/2026
“Apparently Maria Miller, my local MP, is vulnerable in what is traditionally a safe Conservative seat.”
When will she join the growing number of Conservative MPs who are deserting the sinking ship? 36 of them have so far declared that they won’t be standing at the next general election.
Maria Miller is IMO one of the world’s leading exponents of tacit loyalty to whoever is in charge, while sitting on the fence.
She is defending a hitherto very safe seat and tbh I’d be surprised if she lost it, but current projections are she will.
I can’t really knock her because I once asked for her support about a business matter and she not only understood the issue, once I explained it to her, she asked a pertinent question in the House Of Commons about it.
She’s still a Conservative, though!
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"I’m sure there are some decent hard working Tory MPs out there , the problem is they,ve allowed the likes of Braverman, Raab and Johnson rise to the top and for that there is no excuse
Pick 3 on Saturday champion 2025/2026
Can anyone else see the Lib Dems doing well next time? Labour is increasingly becoming ‘Tory-lite’ on various issues and that is not how you win my vote, quite the opposite, and I can’t be the only one who thinks like that. The Tories are going to haemorrhage millions of votes but it’s far from a given that they’ll end up in the red box. Labour will of course win but I still think there is potential for the LDs to deny them a majority.
I think the Lib-Dems will increase their vote but the system won’t give them that many more seats.
Tactical voting has increased in recent years but I suspect the Lib-Dems still suffer from 2010 when they styled themselves as being more radical than – and even to the Left of in some ways – Labour yet did a deal with the Tories to form a coalition.
I doubt many Labour voters who tactically voted Lib Dem that year have ever forgiven them as, though Labour weren’t the biggest Party in that hung parliament, there is nothing to prevent the second- and third-biggest parties aligning if their combined seats produce a working majority.
Tactical Labour voters in seats where the Lib-Dems are second need to absolutely know that won’t happen again and tbh I think the Lib-Dems will still get into bed with either Party if it gets them into power.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"‘I think the Lib-Dems will increase their vote but the system won’t give them that many more seats.’
That’s the problem, I found a fairly recent poll that put them on 10-12% that thanks to our particular definition of ‘democracy’ gives them a number of seats in the order of 25.
I personally don’t see them jumping into bed with the Tories again because I would like to think that they’ve learned from that particular colossal error. But this is politics…
FPTP and the fragmentation of the non-rightwing vote still give the Tories grounds for optimism, in my opinion, and that’s why I have backed them for an overall majority.
They’re getting desperate already, their propaganda sheets are reporting the pre-election tax cut bribe today (thanks for that, I can put it towards my skyrocketing mortgage payments that are coming in as a result of your cretinous economic illeteracy).
It’s 25/1 that the election is this year. I don’t know when this covid enquiry will deliver a result but given the desperation of them to keep evidence from it, my guess is that there’s enough there to bring them down, and Sunak himself may not exactly come out of it covered in glory.
I think January 2025 is the latest it can be called, but governments seldom go all the way to the wire as they like to give themselves some “wiggle room” with a six-month window in case “Events, dear boy, Events!” scupper their plans.
My guess is Sunak plans to call an election between May and November 2024, depending on the timing of a pre-election tax cut, how well or otherwise the opinion polls react to that, how any external events beyond his control pan out and seizing the most opportune – or at least the least inopportune – moment during that window.
I still think we’re looking at a Tory defeat, Labour most seats and the question will be: Hung Parliament? Labour majority? And, if so, how comfortable (or even big) a majority?
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Our constituency is one that has had it’s boundaries changed. It now has lost some of West Herts and gained South Beds. There was talk of Nadine Dories standing here at one stage. Thank God that has not happened and our present MP Bim Afolami is the Tory choice. This area has returned a Tory for as long as I can remember apart from a brief appearance by Shirley Williams early 70’s. I would think there is a much better chance of Lib Dem winning here rather than Labour but I really don’t want to vote for them, so I’ll wait to see who the Labour candidate is.
I've stumbled on the side of twelve misty mountains
I've walked and I crawled on six crooked highwaysIan, this covid enquiry is the only ‘event, dear boy’ that I see scuppering whatever plans they have, I think some of what was going on behind the scenes will be incredibly damaging if/when it comes out and will go right to both the former and current top. It remains unlikely that anything will come of it though, it’ll be dragged out to ensure that.
If they get to choose when it is then I think you’re right. Not only the wriggle room but also another election in the depths of winter is the last thing anyone wants or needs. I assume they’d avoid the height of summer as well. May is ‘traditional’, and conveniently just into the 24/25 tax year for the bribes to kick in but they may want to cling on for longer so we could be looking at the autumn.
Purwell, current polling says that circa 75% of us want them out. Thanks to FPTP, it’s going to require some of us to hold our noses in the ballot box. The ‘anyone to the left of the Tories’ vote, which now includes the centre-right, is still somewhat fragmented. Although at least we have Reform (or whatever it’s called this week) to take some of the Tory vote from those who don’t quite find them to be right wing enough.
I might be wrong, but I think it was Harold Macmillan who first coined the “Events, dear boy, Events!” line.
I guess I was referring to anything from domestic to international.
But I think your educated guess is a good one Richard.
And I now know Sir Purwell resides in (and in all probability secretly owns) Hertfordshire – the posh git!
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Long way to go.
Labour’s actual plans starting to filter out and there’s enough in there to make Middle ground voters stop and think.
The 80+ maj the Tories have will be hard to turn over in one GE.
As soon as inflation starts to fall (likely towards end ’22) mortgage rates will follow downwards.
Bailey and his cohorts at BoE have a lot to answer for; eye off the ball in Summer ’21.
There must still be plenty of slack in the pockets of peeps, as spending on holidays abroad are back up to pre-covid levels.
Immigration – i’m still trying to fathom what Labour’s stance actually is – and i cant be the only one wondering.
Still too many Qs about Starmer and Labour.
His kamikaze policy on net zero and stopping any new licences for north sea oil exploration is bonkers. So, we’re going to rely even more on importing energy! Right, that’ll go down well.
Cracks starting to appear now in Labour’s future plans as peeps start to ask more Qs and expect answers.
Anecdotally i see no real enthusiasm for SKS and Labour amongst my Middle Ground pals and fam. Yes, at the mo a very cautious “Give ’em a chance” but that could easily change, i feel.
And after May’s local elections millions will see Labour in action at local level – a few slip ups are bound to occur, just in time for a pending GE.
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