Ready for Rishi? 2022-???? (There’s no telling with this lot)

[IanDavies]

Unless the whole sorry saga is staged and by mutual agreement in an attempt to whip up interest in his book.

Who actually buys these books?

I never have and never will.

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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"

[IanDavies]

Next General Election
Labour 1.24
Conservatives 5.1

Overall Majority
Labour 1.74
No Overall Majority 3.1
Conservatives 9

Labour hardening again as favourites after The Budget, but a bit uneasy in the Overall Majority market.

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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"

[Wilts]

Latest Deltapoll cuts Labour’s lead to 10 points.
45% Lab, 35% Tories
Personal approval ratings:
Sunak minus 9 (from minus 11)
Starmer plus 7 (from plus 12)

But Redfield & Wilton Strategies poll shows no change, from their previous
47% Lab, 26% Tories.

Big test coming up on May 4th in some councils.

[IanDavies]

Thanks, Wilts, that first one would help to explain the current state of the markets at Betfair Exchange.

If Labour don’t wipe the floor with the Tories in May – widely expected – the focus may shift to Labour losing their grip on a once seemingly-unassailable lead.

I think the Budget gives Hunt scope for a pre-election giveaway Budget, either in the autumn or this time next year.

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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"

[Cork All Star]

It has gone a bit quiet on the political front.

An opinion poll in today’s edition of “The Times” asks who would be the “most capable Prime Minister”. Sunak polled 38% to Starmer’s 37%. Starmer’s personal approval rating is -20.

I think Starmer has the look of a liability for Labour. He has not connected with voters and lacks the charisma which was so helpful for Blair.

As such, I have had a speculative bet on the Conservatives to win the most seats at the next General Election. 7/2 is more than fair in a two horse race.

[IanDavies]

Next Election

Most Seats
Labour 1.27
Conservatives 4.7

Overall Majority
Labour 1.76
No Overall Majority 3.1
Conservatives 8.4

I have my own view, but I don’t take the closest of daily interests and struggle to find a professional political pundit with the intelligence and objectivity to take me even closer to it from my remote perspective.

The closest for me is Andrew Marr at The New Statesman.

Now he’s pro-Labour, but I nevertheless find him dispassionately objective.

For a while he has been saying Sunak is in real trouble, but in the last month Marr has changed his tune and I don’t think he’s doing it simply because he wants to make a forgone conclusion a bit more interesting.

Marr now reckons Sunak is getting things done, he’s manifestly a lot more capable and hard working than Johnson or Truss and that Labour are underestimating the things Sunak has achieved with Northern Ireland etc.

Plus, while Marr, like me, believes Sunak is a Thatcherite at heart (witness his comments about her Chancellor Lawson) Marr also thinks Sunak will stand up to the extreme right of his party and make the Tories more electable.

I think a Blair-style 97 landslide is becoming less likely for Starmer and May’s local elections will be fascinating.

The Tories are assumed to be heading for a wipe out in local government but, if it’s not actually THAT bad, it’s Labour HQ where the alarm bells will be going off.

I’m still very persuaded by John Curtice’s words about no government winning next time after a major adverse fiscal event (mini budget) but No Overall Majority at 3.1 doesn’t look bad to me.

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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"

[gamble]

Power handshakes, big smiles, and connects so much better now, almost skipping off the plane to meet and greet Macron on the red carpeted tarmac.
He’s an inspiration and if you can afford a PR man that can
come up with a lightbulb moment meme, well, the sky’s the limit..

[He Didnt Like Ground]

Ian Sunak’s problem is he couldn’t win a popularity race in the Tory party never mind country , also the teachers knocking back the latest pay offer is another problem added to his list , let’s face it few NHS workers or teachers are likely to vote Tory at the next election

Pick 3 on Saturday champion 2025/2026

[IanDavies]

All true, HDLG, and it’s a fast-changing situation.

The May Elections will surely set the agenda for the summer.

A Tory local government wipe out will have the media saying: “you’re already beaten in the next general election, aren’t you?”

But anything else and the media will be saying to Labour: “Covid, partygate, mini budget disaster and you STILL can’t hammer them – will Labour ever win another election?”

Stakes get higher after May.

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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"

[Cork All Star]

“Few NHS workers or teachers are likely to vote Tory at the next election.”

Like in every other General Election. But it has not stopped the Conservatives from winning or being the largest party in the last four.

[IanDavies]

It’s interesting – I think Gladders has backed a Tory majority at circa 10/1, CAS has 7/2 Tories Most Seats, I’ve had a bit of 3.1 No Overall Majority (3.05 now – wahey, I’ve got a whole, err, 0.05pts in value!).

Labour are odds-on both to win and to get a majority yet none of us thinks they’re value for either at the prevailing odds.

I think the gap is narrowing for sure, but the election doesn’t have to be until January 2025 latest so as ever it will be a case of “Events, dear boy! Events!”

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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"

[IanDavies]

Next Election

Most Seats
Labour 1.29
Conservatives 4.3

Overall Majority
Labour 1.97
No Overall Majority 2.66
Conservatives 8

Having eased in recent weeks, Labour have shortened up again today, presumably in anticipation of the widely-predicted bad night for the Conservatives materialising.

The Tories are currently 1.33 to lose 750 or more Council seats nationwide tonight.

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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"

[Richard88]

I have voted because I firmly believe in doing so in honour of the many people all over the world who don’t enjoy such a right.

However I know very little about any of them. Mostly independents on my ballot paper, did vote for a chap who seems to be decent enough and has made a good effort to make himself known.

There is understandably much apathy around local elections but this one is probably about as interesting as it gets. You have to think that the Tories will receive a good shoeing from the electorate. Their core voter base can safely abstain or even defect for now to send a message without affecting the national picture. Will opposition voters be persuaded out to further send a message? The effect of this absurd voter ID plan remains to be seen as well.

[He Didnt Like Ground]

The expected bad night for The Tories , some no mark Tory on tv now saying the public will give Sunak time and he can still win an election …… and they say the Tories don’t lie

Do bear in mind that these are just local elections, so voting Conservative means you are only choosing to wreck your own neighbourhood, rather than the entire country.#LocalElection2023

— Parody Rishi Sunak (@Parody_PM) May 4, 2023

Pick 3 on Saturday champion 2025/2026

[IanDavies]

Next General Election

Most Seats
Labour 1.25
Conservatives 4.7

Overall Majority
Labour 1.81
No Overall Majority 2.82
Conservatives 8.2

That’s the market reaction to the local results in so far.

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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"

[Richard88]

Some of those parody accounts are pretty good HDLG. Sir Michael Take MP even got quoted by the Mail.

I hate to say it Ian* but your 3.1 no majority bet looks quite good I think. Yes, the Tories are experiencing massive losses here and are likely to in the next GE but not all of that support is going to Labour.

A Lib Dem resurgence nationally could see Labour stop short of a majority. Yes they are accused of being ‘Yellow Tories’ but that is exactly what the slightly right of centre electorate wants. Starmer has very sensibly jumped into that void left by the Tory drift rightwards but there’s room in there for the LDs too.

*Not, I hasten to add, because I don’t want you to win but because my seal of approval is invariably the death knell for any bet

[He Didnt Like Ground]

There’s a lot of Tories twitching uncomfortably today , I’m looking toward to the election and seeing some known faces being put out , still remember Portillo going with a warm glow , yesterday proved just like Sunak couldn’t win a popularity contest within his own party he can’t win one with the general populate ….. Where’s Boris ….. planning I imagine

Pick 3 on Saturday champion 2025/2026

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