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"nightime had a 2yo group performance (which wasnt unimpressive-she was the highest rated of galileos offspring going into 2006, even higher than any of the colts"
Good lord, I don’t know where you’ve got that stat from, but it’s certainly not true.  At least Innocent Air and Fire And Rain were rated above her, and that’s from the only two I’ve checked!!
I think it is entirely possible that an unexposed type may show themselves by next June, and it is also entirely possible that Teofilo and Authorized (I like both alot) may not run up to their 2yo form at 3.  It’s a long time til Derby Day.
As I watched the Racing Post unfold on Saturday my mind went back to both the Irish Guineas, They were run in deep heavy going just like the race on Saturday.George pulled muscles in his back trying to cope with the conditions and the winner of the One Thousand has not been heard of since,although she won like a world beater. So be careful drawing conclusions from races run under such conditions.
the winner of the One Thousand has not been heard of since
Just so you know, Nightime pulled muscles on her next start at Ascot. Dermot Weld almost got her back to the track but wasn’t 100% happy with her so has let her off until next year.
Sal
<br> <br>Classic Winner <br>——————————————————————————–<br>"nightime had a 2yo group performance (which wasnt unimpressive-she was the highest rated of galileos offspring going into 2006, even higher than any of the colts"
Good lord, I don’t know where you’ve got that stat from, but it’s certainly not true. At least Innocent Air and Fire And Rain were rated above her, and that’s from the only two I’ve checked!!
I think it is entirely possible that an unexposed type may show themselves by next June, and it is also entirely possible that Teofilo and Authorized (I like both alot) may not run up to their 2yo form at 3. It’s a long time til Derby Day.
—–<br>Sal
Report post to Admin<br>
When you go on to The racing Post site and Click on the word "Galatee", for example, and then bleow that it will say the sire name galileo, click on Galileo, then it will bring up some sire info, click progeny results and it will bring up a list of the horses progeny and their best ratings to date, in order from best to worst.
I was heavily anticipating a great season for Galileo this season so I kept going back to that list over last winter and I distinctly remember that top of that list was NIGHTIME, at the time I thought Fire and Rain and Innocent Air should have been higher but they werent and subsequently she has turned out to be the best of that Threesome so possibly they were right to have her there.
Also I never asked if it was "possible" Sal this is horse racing sal and as we all know anything is possible. I find its better to deal in terms of likely and unlikely, with that in mind it is even you must admit that both of those horses not training on is more unlikely than not, and if theres any other horse youve seen that you think could be close to 130 by derby day, please let me know who it is and I’ll keep my eyes peeled.
andyod Posted on 1:03 pm on Oct. 23, 2006 <br>As I watched the Racing Post unfold on Saturday my mind went back to both the Irish Guineas, They were run in deep heavy going just like the race on Saturday.George pulled muscles in his back trying to cope with the conditions and the winner of the One Thousand has not been heard of since,although she won like a world beater. So be careful drawing conclusions from races run under such conditions.
<br>I dont really think the irish guineas is a great race to compare with the RPT, the irish guineas generally feature fully matured potential milers who ragardless of the ground are milers or thereabouts. That aside, the 1st two in the the 2000 were the 2 best 3yo milers of this year, and the 1,000 winner was a filly who just had that bit more stamina in her breeding than the rest, she was always going to struggle on fast ground at ascot, i thought she might be a nassau horse (although not necessarily get injured but such is life).
The RPT is generally a trial for horses that are wanting to step up in trip next year, and so testing conditions are not exactly a disadvantage, and the well bred and stylish winner looks like the type that will step up very nicely. Also, I would imagine that the RPT is seldom ever run on better than good to soft.
I have followed these G and Ms for the past two years (also followed Giants Causeways first crop with good results but his second hasnt been great, for obvious reasons, saying that Montjeu’s hasnt been close to his first either) and over time I have developed a great deal of faithi ntheir abilities and reliability (with Montjeus their reliability circles around pace but that trait wasnt really as apparent until 4yo, as they were generally progressing through their 3yo opposition), with coolmore never putting as much into their second and 3rd croppers and the fact that Rock of Gibraltar seems to have commmanded most of their attention. I’d say that it was probably much more likely that the sort of unexposed horse you were talking about would have emerged in the past couple of years in the G and M first croppers, than it stands to happen this year than it stands of happening this year under RoGs.
I dont really think the irish guineas is a great race to compare with the RPT, the irish guineas generally feature fully matured potential milers who ragardless of the ground are milers or thereabouts.
Before anyone replies, I use the term fully matured very loosely. Obviosly they are not FULLY matured, although GW possibly was, and araafa wasnt far off it.
"I was heavily anticipating a great season for Galileo this season so I kept going back to that list over last winter and I distinctly remember that top of that list was NIGHTIME, at the time I thought Fire and Rain and Innocent Air should have been higher but they werent."
What an enormous amount of rubbish that is.
<br>"Also I never asked if it was "possible" Sal this is horse racing sal and as we all know anything is possible. I find its better to deal in terms of likely and unlikely, with that in mind it is even you must admit that both of those horses not training on is more unlikely than not, and if theres any other horse youve seen that you think could be close to 130 by derby day, please let me know who it is and I’ll keep my eyes peeled."
Any special reason why they have to run to 130? ÂÂÂ
And if we’re talking likelihood, I think it is quite likely that Authorized will not repeat that level of form on much faster ground – and that Teofilo will find it more difficult, as a big horse now, to compete with others of his own generation when they catch up with his level of maturity.  That does not mean that I think neither of them will train on, but it does mean there is a likelihood (as you prefer that word) that they will not be able to quite reproduce their 2yo form throughout their 3yo careers.
As for other possibilities, there are one or two to keep an eye on, but mainly I think that ante-post is fun but 8 months ahead can never be a ‘certainty’ or ‘near certainty’ or ‘almost certainty’ or whatever waffle you used. ÂÂÂ
Bulwark,
Suggest you take heed of Sal’s post. When she gets mad she is almost never wrong which suggests in this case that you might be !
You are in danger of snatching Jackane’s crown as the "Most blinded my enthusiasm that they’ve lost all sense of reality" forumite.
History tells us it’s just never as simple as the impressive Dewhurt winner and impressive RPT winner (albeit bred for the job) being the only 2 contenders for the Epsom Derby with 8 months to go. It will be a pleasant surprise if both colts make it to the race with their reputations intact let alone fight out the finish !
Time will tell Sal, however you say Teofilo is a big horse, yes he is a big horse upwards but not outwards, he still has a lot of filling out to do over the winter which is more likely to bring improvement more than anything. Whether that puts him at a disadvantage for stamina races is hard to say because he looks the perfect type physically and mentally to take to epsom, all going to plan.
Authorized I agree will probably not be near his best in a slow race on firm ground, but I still reckon hes got a far too many boxes ticked not to figure in the finish.
We all read form in different ways and believe in certain things, and only time will tell but by my methods I’m very confident on this one, and you can quote this thread to me next June if im wrong….;) <br>
Scottish Jamie
<br> <br>Classic Winner <br>——————————————————————————–<br>Bulwark,
Suggest you take heed of Sal’s post. When she gets mad she is almost never wrong which suggests in this case that you might be !
You are in danger of snatching Jackane’s crown as the "Most blinded my enthusiasm that they’ve lost all sense of reality" forumite.
History tells us it’s just never as simple as the impressive Dewhurt winner and impressive RPT winner (albeit bred for the job) being the only 2 contenders for the Epsom Derby with 8 months to go. It will be a pleasant surprise if both colts make it to the race with their reputations intact let alone fight out the finish !
—–<br>Jamie <br>
I never said that they are the only two contenders, obviously they could get injured, what I said is that if they stay fit its pretty much party over for everything else. Also I dont like Teofilo or Authorized for the guineas as I think that they’ll be at their most exposed there. I would rather see Teofilo go the Ballysax/Derrinstown route (even though he definitely looks to have a chance in the guineas, he is reportedly a big eater and it could be troublesome getting a horse like him up to group1 miler standard before the guineas) and Authorized do the dante. These horses are bred for a derby and Ive backed them every start to date, they have done everything right by me so far to suggest that its going to happen. Being honest though I dont like derby horses in the guineas in the same way as I dont like Guineas horses in the derby, so whether they make it to the derby or not with repoutations is all down to good campaigning.
davidjohnson Posted on 4:52 pm on Oct. 23, 2006 <br>Please learn how to use the quote facility Bulwark!!!!!
OK DJ will strive to make that my top priority in future posting…
It would "almost certainly" appear everyone is on one today! Great! :biggrin:
Impossible to rule out an unexposed horse coming through and that can be applied to this year more than ever.
Godolphin have a vast array of blue bloods that have not seen the track yet, sure over 70% of them are still to run? It’s also pretty clear Aidan O’Brien is training his 2 year olds very differently this year from last year with it being very clear a satisfactory introduction is wanted above all else. This point was highlighted by Mount Nelsons romp in a maiden yesterday. He has oodles of lightly raced/unraced 2 year olds for next year. And of course that is not even taking into account what the likes of Stoute has.
A reminder also of the 4th placed horse in this years Derby and arguably the rightful winner…Hala Bek. Didnt race at all at 2 and only got one race into him at 3 before the Derby. Had he managed to have an extra prep race before the Derby as had been the plan (only for an infection to strike) the immature signs he showed towards the end of the race could well have been ironed out and he probably would have won.
Of the top of my head the likes of High Rise, Galileo, Kris Kin in recent years have all made the 2 yea rold debuts from October on and went on and won the Derby.
Do people think that Authorized achieved more in winning the Group 1 Racing Post Trophy on heavy going by 1.25 lengths and 2 lengths than Eagle Mountain did in winning the Group 2 Juddmonte Beresford Stakes on soft to heavy by 7 lengths and 0.75 lengths?
And if so, by how much?
Does anyone feel that Eagle Mountain is no better than he showed on Saturday?
Good point trackside, also I’ve noticed that O’brien has not brought one Johannesburg colt (or if he has its slipped well under my radar), now its possible that they beileve he is too far down the ND line for his offspring to be popular as studs themselves (ND-Storm Bird-Storm Cat- Hennessy-Johannesburg-(Progeny)) but he looks to have knocked up as better balance of horses, all in all. <br>RoGs first crop had been quite highly anticipated and I remember he was odds on to be champion 1st crop sire this year with cashmans, which looks like money down the drain and Ballydoyle appear have have went RoG mental this season, but by the looks of it its going to cost them as none of them really look that special to me.
I do agree (ish) with what sal is saying about montjeus, they are at their best on good and worse ground (and ideally a good clip) but they are not exactly hopeless on firmer ground , Look at hurricane run and scorpion in the irish derby, papal bull at ascot, HR in King George etc. I doubt that Authorized really wanted to trundle through slurry at the weekend but he showed real class, that doesnt necessarily mean its all he can do though and I see big improvement for him next year, hes a class act…
Personally, I think they achieved pretty much the same, which obviously means I thought Eagle Mountain was below form on Saturday.
Main reason being that he got a poor ride from Kinane. The feature of Eagle Mountain’s form so far has been he has taken a while to wind up before coming with a strong sustained run, Kinane never had him in a position to do this on Saturday, he was always crowded and was even allowed to drop back to the rear around 3f out.
Can’t help but feel thought that Authorized has more scope for improvement and I was really taken with him. Any horse that wins a Group 1 race in that fashion (backed up by the time) on just his second start is clearly something special. I’ll be surprised if anything from the RP Trophy is able to reverse placings next year.
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