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By all accounts Aiden the maestro sends Seville for this and possibly a couple of others.
He’s being hyped as being a bit special but I had a look and wasn’t overly impressed.
He won a 4 horse race like an odds on shot should but I thought he should have been able to put a bit more distance between him and the second than he did. Pulled away from him ok but then he looked to be running up and down on the same spot.
Could be greeness though as the old head went up a bit in the closing stages.
Against that I would imagine whatever is his main representative is a better horse than Rod the Dewhurst runner up.
I just can’t see him firing his top gun at Frankel when he could send it here and get a grade 1 in the book.
I still believe Master of the Hounds is a better horse that Roderic despite losing to him but if Seville is better than the both we should see some fireworks.
Then we have Dunboyne Express who beat Master of the Hounds in a tight finish. He has won since beating very little due to conditions that day but so has Master of the Hounds.
With Master of the Hounds getting an awful ride behind Roderic I wouldn’t be sure enough to say one has improved more than the other.
I would think if Seville is better than Master of the Hounds then he’ll prove to be better than D Express.
There’s a lot to like about Native Khan Ed Dunlop probably won’t run because of the softening ground which is a pity. Eddie Ahern reckoned he wouldn’t get within a 100 yds of Frankel and I’d like to seen how he had faired against these horses.
There must be a fair chance Brian Meehan rates Titus Mills higher than Waiter’s Dreams which would make thing interesting if he runs.
There could be an outstanding bet in this if the market is an open one.
Casamento may have been beaten by Pathfork who looks a classier individal but what Casameto lacks in looks he makes up for in sheer determination. He tried to make all that day which is hardly the best way to do things in these races but once passed he was coming back at Pathfork, albiet it might have taken another 5 furlongs to actually to pass him, he showed a lot of guts that day.
Held up behind the leader he won very easily next time so how Frankie will ride him in this is hard to say.
No one can judge pace better than Frankie so it’s not too much of a worry.
My hope is the betting is very open and I can get 1.8 to evens about Casamento for a Place on the exchange as he looks a certainty to make a place at the very least.
With AOB throwing the dice this race looks like being a real hard one to work out but it should be a cracker.
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Derby more like
Didn’t realise there was an acceptors today.
Not as open as I hoped it seems the bookies favour Casamento who’s a measly 2/1
What jumped out at me was the price of AOB’s Seville at 5/1.
That tells me that this horse isn’t held in as high regard as the hype would suggest so I’m taking a chance on my own judgement.
I think Master of the Dance is better than Roderic who he should have beat. I really like the horse and think there is much better to come.
If held up he could very well beat Dumboyne Express this time and althouh Casmento looks a very tough horse to beat at 12/1 ew….already took it… I think he’s a very good sporting bet to win this.
Master of the Hounds 12/1 ew
I wouldn’t know if Seville is the best they’ve got but I’d think he’s a very nice horse.
O’Briens 2yo record over here this eyar has been dire but it wouldn’t a surprise to see Seville go one better than Roderic O’Connor and at 5/1 I’d want to be with him rather than against.
Looks a live Derby contender even at this early stage for me though. Just watch the way he ate up the ground during the last furlong of his debut.
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There’s a lot to like about Native Khan Ed Dunlop probably won’t run because of the softening ground which is a pity
The current ground is g/s (6.7 Turftrax), there’s little or no rain forecast and, with the straight course generally riding faster than the round, the going at Doncaster’s unlikely to be a reason for anything not to run this weekend.
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Dunboyne Express and Seville stand out, the latter especially. He was incredibly impressive at Tipperary last time, is out of a mare proven at Group level and still looks to have plenty of improvement in him.
I think 5/1 is probably a reasonable price.
I"m taking a chance the ground will be fine for
Native Khan
as i like this big imposing grey colt and 5/1 e/w is as safe as it gets! If he runs that is!
TAPK
You are being a bit negative man E/W i think NATIVE KHAN will win if he runs. and 6/1 with lads is great price been banging on about this horse since that maiden win top class horse he is.
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Dunboyne Express for me.
I’m with TAPK and darren, I also think Native Khan has good chances at this one, and is the only one bearing a decent price. That is of course given that the going stays the same till Saturday.
Casamento to wear them down. He’s a tough sort and I don’t think connections would have bothered supplementing him if they weren’t confident of a huge run.
He’ll do for me.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
Come on Fist; it’s Master of the Hounds and tossing the dice.You still not awake yet?
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Poor field, in my view, and unlikely there’ll be a Epsom Derby winner amongst them.
Couldn’t have Casamento, personally. Both he and Pathfork seem to be rated on their defeat of Zoffany, yet the latter clearly didn’t run his race, and the modest Samuel Morse finished less than 6l behind them (prev btn 8l by Dunboyne Express). T’would be unusual, also, for 2 really high class 2yo colts to fight for a full furlong before one gained the upper hand.
Native Khan’s form’s nothing to write home about, either; has much to find and his trainer was quick to swerve the Dewhurst when he saw the strength of the opposition. KF could probably have ridden him too, but chose Titus Mills instead.
Not sure about the O’Brien horses, though most of the evidence suggests this year’s 2yo aren’t any better than last year’s. All of their RPR’s show them not to be within a stone of last year’s stable star – SNA – at the same stage, and they’ll have to show much more than they have thus far, to win this.
Dunboyne Express looks to be the answer. Showed he stayed 7f well when pipping Master Of Horse on his debut, and improved on his next run – even though droppng back in trip – and beat Samuel Morse further than plenty of other good horses managed (Up until the Dewhurst, which was probably a much better race than this anyway).
Won’t get rich on the 7/2 available, but looks a definite runner, and certainly shouldn’t go any longer.- Total Posts 17716
Dubawi Gold (i’ve put him each-way as the price allows it but I’m confident he’ll win).
Casamento will win this if he can reproduce his run in the National Stakes. I think the form of that race is seriously underrated because neither of the front two hail from particularly fashionable yards. If Casamento and Pathfork were with Oxx, Bolger, Weld or Ballydoyle people would be creaming themselves over the form with both Zoffany and Glor Na Mara well beaten. I’d respect Prendergast’s horse but the setback he suffered in August puts me off him slightly.
I had a small antepost interest in Casamento after his maiden win at Limerick Junction but I’m nearly hoping he doesn’t bolt up on Saturday. You know well if he’s impressive at Doncaster he’ll be ruined by Godolphin during the winter. Mick Halford is a damn good trainer when supplied with the right ammunition (Golden Cross, Miss Sally, Snaefell, Quinmaster, Nicks Nikita). I hope the Sheikh leaves Casamento with him for his 3yo campaign.
Interesting article re Casamento:
http://donnmcclean.com/2010/09/26/michael-halford/- Total Posts 17716
Wouldn’t be at all sure the National Stakes form is underrated, Imp.
Zoffany clearly didn’t run his race (his trainer stated afterwards that he got stuck in the ground), a point emphasised by the 7l or so that Samuel Morse found on him from their Phoenix run.
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