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Casamento will win this if he can reproduce his run in the National Stakes. I think the form of that race is seriously underrated because neither of the front two hail from particularly fashionable yards. If Casamento and Pathfork were with Oxx, Bolger, Weld or Ballydoyle people would be creaming themselves over the form with both Zoffany and Glor Na Mara well beaten.
Fantastic post and point.
Master of Hounds fits most of the trends, was very close to Dunboyne Express and allowed Roddy O to get too much of an easy lead, 14s with Ladbrokes has got my e/w fiver!
BlueSky @pghenn.bsky.social
So don't run, just like the others always do
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Master of the Dance is Johnny Murtagh who was seen yesterday wearing jodhpurs in preperation to lead te march on Saturday
As I thought he has been confirmed to ride Master of the Hounds and he’s been backed from 14/1 to 11/2 when the news got out.
Rain forcast at Donny lessens the chances of Native Khan but if he runs there’s still a remote chance he’ll go on it.
Eddie Ahern did say he had no chnace of keepiing the mount after he won on the horse at Sandown and that Fallon would be back on him. The fact he isn’t is just another pointer that the horse can’t win/
Really nice horse I like but everything has gone against him no disrespect to Paul Hanagan.
Fallon chsoing Titus Mills I can understand because he’s mor likley to go on the ground but he looks a mie behind the Irish horses who look as if the first three places are already booked for.
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Poor field, in my view, and unlikely there’ll be a Epsom Derby winner amongst them.
Couldn’t have Casamento, personally. Both he and Pathfork seem to be rated on their defeat of Zoffany, yet the latter clearly didn’t run his race, and the modest Samuel Morse finished less than 6l behind them (prev btn 8l by Dunboyne Express). T’would be unusual, also, for 2 really high class 2yo colts to fight for a full furlong before one gained the upper hand.
Native Khan’s form’s nothing to write home about, either; has much to find and his trainer was quick to swerve the Dewhurst when he saw the strength of the opposition. KF could probably have ridden him too, but chose Titus Mills instead.
Not sure about the O’Brien horses, though most of the evidence suggests this year’s 2yo aren’t any better than last year’s. All of their RPR’s show them not to be within a stone of last year’s stable star – SNA – at the same stage, and they’ll have to show much more than they have thus far, to win this.
Dunboyne Express looks to be the answer. Showed he stayed 7f well when pipping Master Of Horse on his debut, and improved on his next run – even though droppng back in trip – and beat Samuel Morse further than plenty of other good horses managed (Up until the Dewhurst, which was probably a much better race than this anyway).
Won’t get rich on the 7/2 available, but looks a definite runner, and certainly shouldn’t go any longer.I was looking at this a bit differnetly Reet. Last year there were too many would be Derby horses in it and St Nicholas Abbey stood out. This time there seems to be more speed in the race and it’s harder to work out.
If something wins this impressively he could be a Guineas horse this time round. I wouldn’t underestimate the chances of that.
"Not sure about the O’Brien horses, though most of the evidence suggests this year’s 2yo aren’t any better than last year’s. All of their RPR’s show them not to be within a stone of last year’s stable star – SNA – at the same stage, and they’ll have to show much more than they have thus far, to win this."
Since the other O’Brien two year olds won the major races in England last year this statement is difficult to fathom.- Total Posts 17716
92.35 Toolain
91.09 Casamento
89.78 Dunboyne Express
86.34 Seville
85.02 Native Khan
84.92 Dubawi Gold
84.04 Zaidan
83.49 Karam Albaari
83.05 Master of Hounds
81.65 Titus MillsThat is how i’ve marked the cards up on ratings so far.
Toolain looks the value for me but would need a very strong run race.
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Yes Andy, with the likes of Beethoven, Alfred Nobel and Jan Vermeer?
I know you’re convinced they have a virus, just about the rest of Western Europe now believes they’re not very good,(and, for my money, Johnny Murtagh’s choice in this race just confirms it).Very tough race to access….I want to rule Master of Hounds out…purely on his breeding
Very tough race to access….I want to rule Master of Hounds out…purely on his breeding
Out of curiosity, why would you say that? What’s in his pedigree you don’t like?
BlueSky @pghenn.bsky.social
So don't run, just like the others always do
Kingmambo a american sire and while he ran in europe and was a multiple group 1 winner his produce seem to act better on a sounder surface.
He was a miler so for a 2yr old to be streched this far from this sire is very unusual…couple the fact that his best son Henrythenavigtor run a stone below his best on soft ground and the likelyhood but not fact that all his horses rather a decent surface i take him on.
He doesn’t look genuine either….their pushing him because of the mare and the fact he has a stallion pedigree. Be very surprised if he beat stablemate
Hi Reet hard I agree that the first two that you mentioned were always average. However I don’t believe that JanVermeer was average.He will be back again next year and that says more than I can about what Aidan thinks of him.Neither was Cape Blanco average.St.Nicholas Abbey was an extraordinary horseand may get a chance next year also to prove it as a4yo.Midas Touch finished second in the Irish Derby and the Leger, not bad for an ordinary horse either.The fellown that finished second in the Epsom derby was certainly ordinary if his subsequent running is to be believed yet that day he beat Rewilding by half a length.So it is hard to be absolute in judging the ballydoyle three yos this year.Some went on and some did not. I still believe that the barn was in disarray with a bug most of this year.
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"Not sure about the O’Brien horses, though most of the evidence suggests this year’s 2yo aren’t any better than last year’s. All of their RPR’s show them not to be within a stone of last year’s stable star – SNA – at the same stage, and they’ll have to show much more than they have thus far, to win this."
Since the other O’Brien two year olds won the major races in England last year this statement is difficult to fathom.I actually agree Andy but the man is full of surprises
We could hardly have expected Roderic to be placed in the Dewhurst but it didn’t stop people lumping on ew. knowing what AOB’s like
The way I look at it is if MOTH is better than Roderic who ran so well behing Frankel then he must have a chance of winning this. I wouldn’t advise him now though as the place value has gone.
I don’t fancy anything to win outright really. It looks very competitive with any one of 8 with a chance of winning.
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But if you’re basing that MOTH has a big chance on ROC run in the Dewhurst then the Prendergast runner Dunboyne Express would have a massive chance too given the way he’s been trained with Kevin not keen to rush him in any old race and has waited for the perfect opportunity – it wouldn’t surprise me if he was withdrawn if the ground got too bad as he’s a very nice talent.
I can’t see past Dunboyne Express myself who has everything in his locker to win and showed himself a Group 2/1 horse with his winning time at Leopardstown which has been well franked now and duly hacked up by 8 lengths with a monsterous turn of foot to beat Samuel Morse and Glor Na Mara supposed Bolgers best.
He’s already given me one good pay day Dunboyne Express and can give another as I am on to the right lines, not sure if Casamento can fullfil the hype although at a price Toolain could run a big race but would need things to fall his way.
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Still think Dubawi Gold’s a cracker at the 25’s, liked the look of Titus Mills 8’s but the way the former beat Big Issue in comparison makes him a much better bet at the price and the ground will suit.
But if you’re basing that MOTH has a big chance on ROC run in the Dewhurst then the Prendergast runner Dunboyne Express would have a massive chance too
given the way he’s been trained with Kevin not keen to rush him in any old race and has waited for the perfect opportunity
– it wouldn’t surprise me if he was withdrawn if the ground got too bad as he’s a very nice talent.
He had a setback after the Anglesey. They had planned to run him in the Phoenix & National/Beresford but those plans had to be shelved. It’s not as if KP put him away specifically for this race.
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