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My 100% book for good or good-firm going:
Paco Boy 11/4
, Gladiatorus 3/1,
Main Aim 4/1
,
Alexandros 7/1
, Aqlaam 18/1, Cesare 20/1, Arabian Gleam 25/1, Dream Eater 40/1, Mac Love 800/1.
Have backed Paco Boy 7/2 and Main Aim 5/1 yesterday nrnb bog at Stan James. Will probably be putting a saver on Alexandros too. Hopefully Ascot will miss most of the rain.
Mark
Equi, after looking at all the form of the race. I considered Paco Boy and Gladiatorus to have roughly the same chance of winning. With Paco Boy just shading it and with the two coupled a slightly better chance than all the others combined (who would I rather have running for me? Paco and Gladis or the field?). Therefore, Paco Boy must have a 26% (11/4) chance and Gladiatorus 25% (3/1). Main Aim (imo) has just less than 4 times the chance of Aqlaam and just a little more than Cesare. Alexandros has half the chance of Gladis. Arabian Gleam a shade less than Cesare. Dream Eater a shade less than half Aqlaam’s chance. Mac Love needs a certain type of race to produce his best which is nowhere near good enough even at his best, to beat the three favs. When doing my first workings out of the race it came to something like 107%, then I gradually reduce the figures until it works out to 100% and everything looks right. As in I would not back or lay any of the horses at those prices. I also check the percentages by adding a mythical bookies mark up to the 100% book and ask myself if I’d be prepared to lay any of those. If yes then something is wrong.
I now see percentages as prices and vice versa. It helps a great deal when looking at any bookies board, even in races I have not worked out a 100% book for.
Value Is EverythingI don’t find this a race of great interest, unfortunately. Too many ???s over the leading candidates makes it a tricky contest, but does open some doors to longer-priced fancies.
The three queries for Gladiatorus are:
1) First attempt on a track rated good-to-firm. It’s disputable that he has run on going of that nature before, though.
2) Ahmed Ajtebi retains. I would feel safer (as a wagering punter) if Dettori were riding, from the front, in a race Godolphin knows how to win too well with this combination.
3) The uncertainty of the Godolphin yard these days.
What struck me about Main Aim in his Newbury win, was being ridden along early into proceedings.
He holds Golden Jubilee and July Cup entries, and prior to the Group 3 boasted a Class 2 Handicap win as his strongest achievement so far.
I understand SMS would not supplement him for nothing, but his profile into this 1m Group 1 is largely unappealing.
As for Aqlaam, there’s too much in doubt.
He seemed OK in the soft going in the Lockinge but, it was a first start for 11 months in the highest class. Ruling a line through the race leaves me with little form to work with, and 8/1 doesn’t enthuse as such.
That leaves me with Dream Eater. Perennial loser but splitting Paco Boy and Virtual in the bet365.com Mile on good ground. 6-1-1-2 good-to-firm and three sound efforts at Ascot are all positive.
33-1 each-way if I’ve loosened up for the night ahead.
My 100% book for good or good-firm going:
Paco Boy 11/4
, Gladiatorus 3/1,
Main Aim 4/1
,
Alexandros 7/1
, Aqlaam 18/1, Cesare 20/1, Arabian Gleam 25/1, Dream Eater 40/1, Mac Love 800/1.
Have backed Paco Boy 7/2 and Main Aim 5/1 yesterday nrnb bog at Stan James. Will probably be putting a saver on Alexandros too. Hopefully Ascot will miss most of the rain.
Mark
Equi, after looking at all the form of the race. I considered Paco Boy and Gladiatorus to have roughly the same chance of winning. With Paco Boy just shading it and with the two coupled a slightly better chance than all the others combined (who would I rather have running for me? Paco and Gladis or the field?). Therefore, Paco Boy must have a 26% (11/4) chance and Gladiatorus 25% (3/1). Main Aim (imo) has just less than 4 times the chance of Aqlaam and just a little more than Cesare. Alexandros has half the chance of Gladis. Arabian Gleam a shade less than Cesare. Dream Eater a shade less than half Aqlaam’s chance. Mac Love needs a certain type of race to produce his best which is nowhere near good enough even at his best, to beat the three favs. When doing my first workings out of the race it came to something like 107%, then I gradually reduce the figures until it works out to 100% and everything looks right. As in I would not back or lay any of the horses at those prices. I also check the percentages by adding a mythical bookies mark up to the 100% book and ask myself if I’d be prepared to lay any of those. If yes then something is wrong.
I now see percentages as prices and vice versa. It helps a great deal when looking at any bookies board, even in races I have not worked out a 100% book for.
Interesting way of looking at it Mark but surely pricing up to 100% based on your knowledge would be a better way than "x has twice the chance of y" and "z has half the chance of n" since you’d only need to have misjudged one horse (IMO in this instance Gladiatorus) in order to mess up the entire race – you can still use the percentages and prices and the 100% book just take each horse on it’s merits in the field.
Alexandros having half the chance of Gladiatorus – if Gladiatorus is really an 11/8 shot (for example) then you’re well out on Alexandros as such probably well out on Paco Boy, who’s chanhce seems to sit alone in terms of you didn’t state his chance relative to Cesare’s, Mac Love etc. within the post – though i’m 90% sure that’s just to keep it relatively short.
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Ummmm NO. I am not backing odds on Fist. Paco Boy 7/2 = 22.2%, Main Aim 5/1 = 16.7% and now Alexandros 9/1 = 10%. 22.2 + 16.7 + 10 = 48.9. 48.9% is around 21/20 that is ODDS AGAINST. If you thought it should be odds on may be you should get on too. I backed something at around 21/20 that I believe has between an 8/11 and 4/6 chance. If you don’t understand why I should back 3 horses at combined odds of 21/20 what about one horse at 21/20, is that wrong?
Nothing if it wins mate.
The thing is you will take forever to make money out of the game if at all.
Anyway the best price I can find are 9/4 9/2 and 9/1 which is just under evens at 5/1 as you say is just over.
Most of the time you post you talk about backing 3 and 4 horses which most likely everytime you bet in a race you are backing at short odds. 1/1 to 2/1 at a guess.
That is the quickest way to an early exit or a vist to poverty street IMO
I know you feel you have more chance backing 3 horses in one race but in truth you are making all 3 horses even money shots to beat a 9/4 fav.
Logic tell me Alexandros is not an even momney shot to win the race in any language but if I do what you are doing that’s all I am going to get.
Even if I eliminate him I am only getting 6/4 on my cash.
it’s your money mate but you will need a lot of patience to make money out of that and IMO your time would be better spent studying videos and trying dig out 5 or 6 single bets a month and adjusting your stake accordingly.
I’m not saying I never back 2 horses in a race. I did this week but no way was I going to get 1/1 money about the horse I fancied most. You have to chose your races better IMO and watch out for the right opportunities
I backed Tartan Bearer AP at 5/1 let’s say my stake was 2000 pts then I bet 700 pts Vision D’etat 3/1. If my main fancy wins I am getting better odds than are available now and making 9300 pts profit if the other wins I make only 100 pts profit…….in other words I am still getting aprox 7/2 about Tartan Bearerer on my outlay.
To ensure an equal return if any of the 2 win I have to fork out another 2300 pts on Vision D’etat and if one of them wins I get 12,000 back for a 5,000 pt outlay, but the odds of 7/5 dont appeal to me and the possible loss is more than I wish to gamble on a race of his description.
I think tht’s where you are going wrong. You are looking for value bets finding them then taking all the value out of them by betting too many in the one race. Even when the odds are longer I’ve seen you chose 5 and 6 horses are very often dont find the winner……….I think I’ve had six conseciutive losers about twice in the last 2 years if that……you can do it in 59.8 seconds
BTW in the interest of the forum you won’t comment on me saying a fictitous book?. Don’t be so self rightoeus and patronising mate. I don’t think that is a slanderous desciption in any way whatsoever. If I make a book up it’s fictitous as I am not a bookie and wouldn’t lay the prices and neither would you lay yours.
3/1 Galdiatorus? You would either be very poor or very rich after laying that price. Be a que from Towester to Thailand
I’ve opted for Gladiatorus. There are legitimate question marks over this horse and rider, but i don’t think they would put the jockey on if they didn’t think he was a capable performer at this course. Frankie will give him some tips and pointers etc…the guys got to be given a chance on this kind of stage. The horse itself has done it over 8f and 9f against very hndy types so i don’t see there being any problem with he trip. I wasn’t going to touch the race, but i will for the hell of it, because i think he’s gonnae run it out of the rest of the field. I don’t subscribe to the theory that Godolphin horses shouldn’t be touched, as nothing should be discounted in this game.
- Total Posts 17716
This downpour could trun this race on it’s head. I’m holding my breath until I see what the ground is going to be like now. The three priciples have all won on soft or heavy but with their their different style of running and trip doubts anything could win if th ground is deperate.
I’d be going 7/2 the field never mind 3/1 if it turns out to be the case
Fist, my parents in Windsor say it’s been a beautiful day today. My Mum’s gonna keep me updated on the weather.
My 100% book for good or good-firm going:
Paco Boy 11/4
, Gladiatorus 3/1,
Main Aim 4/1
,
Alexandros 7/1
, Aqlaam 18/1, Cesare 20/1, Arabian Gleam 25/1, Dream Eater 40/1, Mac Love 800/1.
Have backed Paco Boy 7/2 and Main Aim 5/1 yesterday nrnb bog at Stan James. Will probably be putting a saver on Alexandros too. Hopefully Ascot will miss most of the rain.
Mark
Equi, after looking at all the form of the race. I considered Paco Boy and Gladiatorus to have roughly the same chance of winning. With Paco Boy just shading it and with the two coupled a slightly better chance than all the others combined (who would I rather have running for me? Paco and Gladis or the field?). Therefore, Paco Boy must have a 26% (11/4) chance and Gladiatorus 25% (3/1). Main Aim (imo) has just less than 4 times the chance of Aqlaam and just a little more than Cesare. Alexandros has half the chance of Gladis. Arabian Gleam a shade less than Cesare. Dream Eater a shade less than half Aqlaam’s chance. Mac Love needs a certain type of race to produce his best which is nowhere near good enough even at his best, to beat the three favs. When doing my first workings out of the race it came to something like 107%, then I gradually reduce the figures until it works out to 100% and everything looks right. As in I would not back or lay any of the horses at those prices. I also check the percentages by adding a mythical bookies mark up to the 100% book and ask myself if I’d be prepared to lay any of those. If yes then something is wrong.
I now see percentages as prices and vice versa. It helps a great deal when looking at any bookies board, even in races I have not worked out a 100% book for.
Interesting way of looking at it Mark but surely pricing up to 100% based on your knowledge would be a better way than "x has twice the chance of y" and "z has half the chance of n" since you’d only need to have misjudged one horse (IMO in this instance Gladiatorus) in order to mess up the entire race – you can still use the percentages and prices and the 100% book just take each horse on it’s merits in the field.
Alexandros having half the chance of Gladiatorus – if Gladiatorus is really an 11/8 shot (for example) then you’re well out on Alexandros as such probably well out on Paco Boy, who’s chanhce seems to sit alone in terms of you didn’t state his chance relative to Cesare’s, Mac Love etc. within the post – though i’m 90% sure that’s just to keep it relatively short.
In practice Irish, that is exactly what I am doing, using my own knowledge to find each percentage, though I do use comparing prices / percentages to check things. You say if one is wrong then the other will be, which is true. But when this does happen then both will look wrong, compared to the rest.
Paco Boy’s chance does not meed to be judged against others because it can be done by the two favs having slightly more than 50%. Of course sometimes when it is judged this way it can look wrong compared to the other prices; in which case the percentage is changed.
You are right again about keeping the post short, I could go on for hours about what is taken in to account.Mark
Value Is EverythingUmmmm NO. I am not backing odds on Fist. Paco Boy 7/2 = 22.2%, Main Aim 5/1 = 16.7% and now Alexandros 9/1 = 10%. 22.2 + 16.7 + 10 = 48.9. 48.9% is around 21/20 that is ODDS AGAINST. If you thought it should be odds on may be you should get on too. I backed something at around 21/20 that I believe has between an 8/11 and 4/6 chance. If you don’t understand why I should back 3 horses at combined odds of 21/20 what about one horse at 21/20, is that wrong?
Nothing if it wins mate.
The thing is you will take forever to make money out of the game if at all.
Anyway the best price I can find are 9/4 9/2 and 9/1 which is just under evens at 5/1 as you say is just over.
Most of the time you post you talk about backing 3 and 4 horses which most likely everytime you bet in a race you are backing at short odds. 1/1 to 2/1 at a guess.
That is the quickest way to an early exit or a vist to poverty street IMO
I know you feel you have more chance backing 3 horses in one race but in truth you are making all 3 horses even money shots to beat a 9/4 fav.
Logic tell me Alexandros is not an even momney shot to win the race in any language but if I do what you are doing that’s all I am going to get.
Even if I eliminate him I am only getting 6/4 on my cash.
it’s your money mate but you will need a lot of patience to make money out of that and IMO your time would be better spent studying videos and trying dig out 5 or 6 single bets a month and adjusting your stake accordingly.
I’m not saying I never back 2 horses in a race. I did this week but no way was I going to get 1/1 money about the horse I fancied most. You have to chose your races better IMO and watch out for the right opportunities
I backed Tartan Bearer AP at 5/1 let’s say my stake was 2000 pts then I bet 700 pts Vision D’etat 3/1. If my main fancy wins I am getting better odds than are available now and making 9300 pts profit if the other wins I make only 100 pts profit…….in other words I am still getting aprox 7/2 about Tartan Bearerer on my outlay.
To ensure an equal return if any of the 2 win I have to fork out another 2300 pts on Vision D’etat and if one of them wins I get 12,000 back for a 5,000 pt outlay, but the odds of 7/5 dont appeal to me and the possible loss is more than I wish to gamble on a race of his description.
I think tht’s where you are going wrong. You are looking for value bets finding them then taking all the value out of them by betting too many in the one race. Even when the odds are longer I’ve seen you chose 5 and 6 horses are very often dont find the winner……….I think I’ve had six conseciutive losers about twice in the last 2 years if that……you can do it in 59.8 seconds
BTW in the interest of the forum you won’t comment on me saying a fictitous book?. Don’t be so self rightoeus and patronising mate. I don’t think that is a slanderous desciption in any way whatsoever. If I make a book up it’s fictitous as I am not a bookie and wouldn’t lay the prices and neither would you lay yours.
Fist,
If I back 22.22 points @ 7/2, 16.67 points @ 5/1 and 10 points @ 9/1.
If the 7/2 shot won I’d win 51.1 points on the race.
If the 5/1 shot won I’d win 51.13 points on the race.
If the 9/1 shot won I’d win 51.11 points on the race.Staking 48.89 points to win just over 51 points whichever wins.
By backing all three prices I am taking 1.045/1.
It is just the same as backing one horse at around 1.045/1.Not that most of my bets are at such short combined prices.
However, I prefer to back one or two to win and one or two in savers.
3/1 Galdiatorus? You would either be very poor or very rich after laying that price. Be a que from Towester to Thailand
Read what I said Fist. I would NOT lay Gladiatorus at 3/1. 3/1 does not have a mark up to it.
You should count one bet as one whole race. The race above should be counted as one bet. I either win in the race or not. The profit on the bet equals the profit on the race.
You stick to your way Fist, I’ll stick to mine.
Why not show us how good you are by doing a Lays and Plays thread Fist? I have just started one. Of course if have not got the bottle…..
Then we can see who’s going wrong
Mark
Value Is Everything- Total Posts 17716
http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/story_get.cgi?STORY_NAME=racing/09/06/15/RACING_Anne_Nightlead.html
Godolphin make no bones about which is their first string – or his fitness.
Nothing about this horse or his form suggests he should be anything higher than an even money shot; 5/2 looks an absolute steal.Thanks for clarifying Mark.
If both yourself and Fist are using different methods and both in profit (at least 1.5% interest ie. bank rate) then both are doing it right
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No official bookies here carv only the tote at the racing on a sunday but about 28 million crazy punters who bet on soccer golf racing or whatever.
How much do you reckon finds it way back to wherever everyday? I dont have a personal account with any UK bookies you silly boy. Not what you know it’s who you know as the saying goes.At the risk of looking completely stupid, I cannot get away from
Mac Love
in this as an each way proposition. There are compelling reasons.
a) This is a dreadful Queen Anne and anything can win it. I don’t think I’ve seen a worse Queen Anne. It’s a donkey derby. Isn’t it time to regrade it back to Group Two?
b) Yes, Gladiatorus was impressive in Dubai but it is almost impossible to win from the front on this straight track. Everyone here has also mentioned the Dubai to Great Britain shipping record too. He’s a definite lay.
c) At least the two Godolphin horses are genuine milers. Paco Boy, Arabian Gleam, Dream Eater and possibly the hype horse Main Aim have yet to prove themselves at the distance.They all strike me as Hungerford types – or Beeswing types before the Newcastle executive criminally butchered that race.
d) Aqlaam is supposed to be catching pigeons on the gallops but he was beaten so easily at Newbury you couldn’t back him to win a Yarmouth handicap. He’s another who has to prove himself at a mile.
e) Cesare loves Ascot but the Fanshawe yard is really struggling for winners.
More tenuously…
f) Alflora and Nicolotte are two big outsiders to have won the race.
g) Mac Love’s sire (of the moment) Cape Cross won this same race in 1999.Most importantly, the visual impression Mac Love made at Epsom indicated to me a much improved horse. He loves fast ground, is a certain stayer, acts at Ascot, loves to come from off the likely ferocious pace, and as for class, he once finished a close runner up to Rakti in a Group 1 – a horse who would hack all over this lot in his training shoes.
Yup, Maxilon, I agree with you completely. Been a fan of his in this race since he was supplemented.
No official bookies here carv only the tote at the racing on a sunday but about 28 million crazy punters who bet on soccer golf racing or whatever.
How much do you reckon finds it way back to wherever everyday? I dont have a personal account with any UK bookies you silly boy. Not what you know it’s who you know as the saying goes.You’re getting paranoid Fist- I wasn’t talking about you!
Wouldn’t agree that making the running is a disadvantage over the straight mile- if anything prominent racers are favoured since the renovations. Ramonti made all in 07 and Hardasun was always close up last year.
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