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Surely Baaeeds race to lose
More of a question at finding what will chase him home in what looks a pretty poor group of older milers bar him
Five-day confirmations for Tuesday now made – Baaeed heads ten confirmed entries.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"I predict an easy Baaeed win, followed by more comparisons to Frankel, conveniently ignoring the fact Baaeed has a closer OR (125) to Excelebration (OR 129) who you’d have fancied to win Tuesday’s race as easily as he won the QEII on a rare day off from barely seeing Frankel’s a**e for dust in the final furlong.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Hopefully they run B and desert crown in the juddmonte, he might trouble him getting 7lbs
Baaeed by about 5 lengths.
Chindit for the forecast
Accidental Agent for the tricastGaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
Sounds plausible on drying ground.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"If Baaeed is 1/5 for the win, what price should he be to be in the first two?
Value Is EverythingBaaeed may be 125 on the official ratings but is Timeform 134.
Frankel was a best 147.I remember 10 years ago me and Jonibake backing Frankel think it was @ 9/1 to win the Queen Anne by 10+ lengths.
Won by 11.
Value Is EverythingA 1/5 favourite would be 1/20 to be placed at a quarter the odds in an each-way bet with the bookmakers, but he is actually available at 1/11 at Betfair Exchange.
The lack of an eighth runner will be vexing each-way thieves up and down the land.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Baaeed looks a moral certainty, but he’s OR 125 and needs to improve 4lb just to equal Excelebration, pulverised by Frankel numerous times.
No OR 125 horse, even a progressive one, is entirely invincible in a Group 1 and Order Of Australia has form on a road and the going stick readings suggest it will be quick.
Real World should run well too.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"That’s roughly what I thought, Ian; re Baaeed in the first two. Along with the basic odds difference also got to consider how much more Baaeed will need to be below form not to be in the first two.
On the face of it 7 runners isn’t great for each way purposes, however when five of those seven are actually 33/1+ to win (in the win only market) and four of the five at 31/1+ even in the each way market… Then the chances of most of the field actually being second is pretty slim too. Where as Real World is only 21/20 to win in the “betting without” market. So the chance of Real World finishing in the first two is pretty big for something available @ around 8/1 each way. Always the chance of Tudhope getting in a battle with Baaeed and being beaten by one ridden for second, but it didn’t happen in the Lockinge and I’ll take a chance it won’t here.
My main bet is Real World each way at an average price of 8.2/1, with a bit on Baaeed @ 1/10 to finish in the first two, and the very small profit that Baaeed bet would bring is on Real World in the win market @ 13/1…
Why just complicate things when you can over-complicate them.
Value Is EverythingAlways liked Sir Busker, and he was my first bet for the meeting a couple of weeks back.
Impossible to see him troubling Baeed, but hoping he can sneak a place, and he does run well here.
Sir Busker 66’s EW 3pls
For a bit of fun I did the following roll up of short priced or potential short priced favourites…
4 fold with insurance (3 of the 4 to win) – Baeed/Coroebus/Reach For The Moon/Hurricane Lane.
I know a lot are running scared of Baaeed but this line up is most disappointing for a G1 at Royal Ascot.
The only unknown in this race is Order of Australia, who on his Moulin form (giving Baaeed 4 lbs and beaten 1.25L) is now 4 lbs better off but the down side is that he is having his first race since last October and he doesn win that often (4 wins in 15 lifetime starts).
As I have said previously comparing Baaeed to Frankel at this stage is laughable as his OR of 125 (going into the Lockinge) was still 1 lb below what Frankel was rated at the end of his 2yr old season!
Baaeed badly needs a 130+ performance before he can even be mentioned in the same breath and it might not be until the Sussex or probably the Juddmonte that we see if he is really capable of reaching that level.
Baaeed would need to beat this lot by 10+ lengths to get to 130
His chance of achieving that rating will come in the juddmonte you’d think
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