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I’ve had a little bit EW on him as well Darren. Had such a good run in the Lockhinge considering he wasn’t anywhere near fit apparently. Obviously loves Ascot, I think he’s an outstanding EW price in another suspect Queen Anne quality wise. I still hope that Barney Roy is going to be the comeback king though!
I think we may be over complicating this race.
LAURENS will break handy and will outstay them in this ground 7/1 each way is huge as personally I think there is only one danger Mushtashry and these two will be too good for this lot!!
I personally think people look at Laurens through a bit of rose tinted glasses. Good for the sport but not quite good enough to win this especially at 6/1. If you fancy Laurens you have to fancy Accidental Agent at twice the price who was publically said to be needing the run in the lockhinge. Le brivido is expected to improve and mushtashry slammed her. 6/1 is a rubbish price for me.
To be fair Frenchy, Burke said she would improve too + his horses were running under a cloud at that stage.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Yeah he might, but it’s a tad harsh to disregard his comments about her, and take Eve Houghton’s to the bank and believe her?? Especially since his weren’t running great at the time…
Not that i fancy her or anything!
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!I love the filly & backed her myself at 8s straight after the Lockinge. She travelled very well, almost too well, in that before getting tired in the final furlong. Rain is a plus for her, as is the stiff mile track.
Burke still isn’t going overly well, 47% RTF & 11% win rate, but it’s better than how it was at Lockinge time.I also backed Barney Roy at 20s after his comeback at Ascot. Thought that was a cracking run after such a long absence from the track and circumstances for being off also. Not sure how this rain will affect his changes, think he’d prefer a sounder surface but hopefully it doesn’t get too bad for Tuesday.
I definitely can’t have Le Brivido at the price, he should be closer to 10s than Fav.
No real standouts for me so looking for a potential improver
And came down on hazapour
Has to improve a few pounds but is still unexposed and has only run once at a mile. May also have the services of frankie dettori which would be a bonus and is why I backed him a week or so ago as the price will be cut if it does happen.
So hazapour 16/1 e/w for me
Was going to back I can fly but looks like she may be going elsewhere
I will most likely go for one at big odds.
Stormy Antarctic could be the one. At 33s on a going day more than capable to get a place (and who knows what else).Not ignoring what he said Jack, but Accidental Agent is twice the price though. Won it last year as well. Laurens needs a career best. Not saying AA will win either, the race last year worked out very well for him and he got a great ride but if people fancy Laurens they have to fancy AA as well at those odds surely?
If I was going to back one of the ones near the top of the betting it would be mustashry tbh
He powered away from Laurens in the lockinge and of turning up in the same form it’s hard to see any of the horses from that race reversing the form
Maybe Lauren’s could if she badly needed the run or le brevido who’s exaggerated hold up tactics will be suited better by the stiff finish at ascot
But both have a lot of ground to make up
That’s one of the reasons I went for hazapour as I don’t think any of these miles are that good and something unexposed could easily improve enough to get into the frame
Barney Roy is obviously the big unknown, he showed a very good turn of foot to win despite getting badly impeded last time
But I’d have doubts if mustashry will even run if the ground is soft
Hes raced an ground softer than good 3 times and run terribly every time
In as much as connections being confident the horses will do better: Laurens has a wonderful 2018 in Group 1’s of course they’ll be confident. Accidental Agent surprised everyone @ 33/1 in this race in 2018 after a poor run in the Lockinge. Ran much better at Newbury this year; so of course they’ll be confident of a good run.
tbh Not many trainers wouldn’t say their horse will come on for reappearance. What’s more significant is the horse’s record fresh.
Although Laurens came on for her 2yo debut she was backed in to 9/2 fav and won. So she was pretty ready. Again as a three year old came on a little for reappearance, but that reappearance was a close 2nd in the 1000 Guineas @ 7/1… And about as well as could be expected from her two year old best.
But although that may suggest she might improve a little from this season’s reappearance/Lockinge, improvement shown from first to second start at both two and three more than likely due to natural progression rather than needing reappearance… Also progressing from second to third start etc… Until imo finding her established 3yo level of ability by the time of the Matron. ie She’s now found her level of ability.
Yes, connections did say she might need her 4yo reappearance and Burke wasn’t in full swing in mid-May; but started 5/1 fav for the Lockinge in a field that on paper beforehand had little between the lot of them… Odds did not suggest she needed it… And imo importantly seemed to show the level of ability expected from 3 year old form. Of course it’s possible she might come on for the run; but imo not much and seems to me less likely than the likes of Mustashry who produced a career best and Le Brivido who hasn’t been at Ballydoyle long and didn’t have the run of the race.Accidental Agent has never really performed to his best after a break and @ 33/1 odds suggest wasn’t expected to be anywhere near 2018 Queen Anne form. (The horse he beat in last year’s QA started 13/2 for the Lockinge). Improved a good deal from Newbury (that one not his reappearance) to Royal Ascot last year. However, although can expect him to come on a bit and/or run to 2018 Queen Anne levels… we are talking about a five year old here. imo Unlikely to be any better than he was last year, or if so only by a pound or two at most… And although it’s not a great field on ratings, some (in particular Mustashry and Le Brivido) are less exposed and (at his pre-stud duties form) Barney Roy would be better than all of them. ie Accidental Agent’s form shouldn’t be good enough even if coming on for the run. That said, at 12/1 might be worth taking the chance others are below their best.
I’ve got 9/1 Le Brivido, but I agree his current price of 9/2 is awful, especially as softer ground is likely to place emphasis on stamina.
Took 5/1+ Mustashry and although Stoutey is not quite in the excellent form he was before the Lockinge; older horses are imo a little less affected by trainer form and has plenty of other positives. 5/1 still worth taking.Value Is EverythingI have Mushtashry as the danger to Laurens and I can see the two of them coming clear in this.
The race doesn’t look like it is going to take a lot of winning TBH and these two look as though they would stay further and that could be what is needed come next Tuesday.My only concern with Mushtashry would be the as he has run three times on soft ground and disappointed every time albeit before he was gelded.
Mustashry was weak in the market on this year’s reappearance/166 days off and disappointed – however that run was not on a soft surface. Mustashry was off almost a year before the soft surface 2017 Betfred Mile, suggesting an interupted preperation/problem. Despite that, would’ve gone very close to winning had he not been stopped in his run and coming wide. Ended up 10th of 17 but only beaten around 3 3/4 lengths.
After a dissapointing run in the soft surface 2017 Joel Stakes Mustashry was off the course from September 2017 to July 2018. Suggesting probably something more wrong than going.
Without running to form on a soft surface – and not seen on it for some time – there’s always a chance it doesn’t suit him; but had probable excuses those two cases.
Value Is EverythingNeed ascot to start now
I’m looking at the races too much
Beginning to talk myself into backing Barney Roy
From the angle that if he retains his ability he will be much better than these and 6/1 is a perfectly good price to find out
If I have any winners today may invest some of the returns
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