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Ginge, YOU ARE THAT CERTAIN TYPE OF PERSON!!!!!
COME ON DOWN!
You don’t enjoy "gambling" but you still do it.
So it’s a bit like doing a job just because the money is good?!
Colin
Hi all
Just in regard to a couple of things frequently mentioned in the course of the thread – prices and e/w bets.
Firstly, imo, there shouldn’t really be any hard and fast rules as regards a minimum or maximum price. We’re lucky to be punting with almost infinitely (if that’s possible?!) more information readily available than ever before. Everything has a price, and everything has a price at which it ‘should’ be backed and a price at which it ‘should’ be layed.
Take the recent Gold Cup – I think everyone here would have been happy to lay Kauto at 1/6, and equally happy to back him at 6/1. I’m just using that as an extreme case to get the point across, but the same principle applies to each and every contender in each and every market that is open for betting.
If something can be assessed accurately as being 90% likely to occur, and one can place a bet on it at odds of 1/3 – why on earth would anyone turn that down?
Also, looking at the frequent advice towards solely placing win singles rather than e/w bets – I really think that’s poor advice.
Every case should be analysed on its merits, and frankly there are a lot of situations where an e/w bet is a good option to take. If the place portion of the bet can be assessed as having a greater profit % than the win part – again, why would anyone want to turn this down?
Looking at the first race in Kempton today this morning, Greenbridge was 2.38 to win and 1.14 to place (I don’t know what the Betfair SP was).
Taking the betfair prices as the most accurate assessment of the horse’s true chances to win and to place; at the 5/4 morning price with bookmakers, a 1pt e/w bet would result in a theoretical 5.4% loss on the win bet but a 9.6% profit on the place bet
Can someone explain to me why, if one thought that Greenbridge was a good bet to win, he should not have been backed e/w?
I think you have to be a certain type of person to have the patience to study form and wait for the value price, to be a pro. I enjoy studying form and pitting my wits against the other exchange players or bookmakers.
agree that i get more satisfaction when putting in the study and time and collecting afterwards also if my selection does get beat i feel i have still found the correct horse and do not blame myself.
Dice Man,
Neat mathematical argument that stumbles up against reality – where are you going to find a bookmaker stupid enough to accept an each way bet in an 8 runner novice hurdle where they bet 33/1 bar three?
AP
Dice Man,
Neat mathematical argument that stumbles up against reality – where are you going to find a bookmaker stupid enough to accept an each way bet in an 8 runner novice hurdle where they bet 33/1 bar three?
AP
1/2 mile down the road from where I live!
also that example was more to illustrate a point, which was that confining one’s bets to win singles means ruling out potentially profitable opportunities. Betting e/w is an option, and neglecting to ever look at it is a mistake imo.
What are your "rules" that determine whether you will bet on a race. Do you always do singles, how many races do you bet on, do you do antepost bets. I’m clearly nowhere near this level yet but i’m interested to see how people do it as several rules seem to be prevailent in all lists. Thanks to anyone willing to answer.<br>
(Edited by FlatSeasonLover at 11:37 pm on Mar. 22, 2006)
I thinks the rulkes have changed since Betfair came along.
I’m not a pro and would never want to be but lets just say I have a few quid on now and then.
First rule is study 6 days a week and bet the equivelant of one day a week………the odds against the every day punter no matter what sytem he uses are massive…….I on average would bet 1 to 6 horses in a month.
Finding the right ones is never easy but always worth the wait I find. More fun when they win and less risky.Use form books less and learn to use your eyes and most importantly how to read a race…..e.g look out for horses you can eliminate from a race…….a classic example was the QMCC…..T/bleu’s form stank to the high heavens..go and look at his previous races and his price and whatb he beat before beating Twist Magic who didn’t stay…and Twist Magic doesn’t get two miles on a stiff track…..betting was a four horse race in reality it was a two horse race……ended up a 1 horse race
If you can latch on to something like that you can get real value and the odds are more in your favour………all down to being patient…..you want tobet in races like the Lincoln even EW…pack it in now or you will end up flat broke.
If you really fancy a class horse to win a big race look at his future entries scan newspapers internet site and if you are sure he is going to run in say the Guineas but you are betting him to win a race a month before hand…….bet him in both..if it wins as you expected you will probably be on at twice to four times the odds he startsat…….you then have the choice of laying the horse nearer the time and either way you can’t lose.
Some say you should bet over the jumps and not on the flat….with Betfair around you can now do that……….going by your name I guess that wouldn’t appeal though
Ginge, YOU ARE THAT CERTAIN TYPE OF PERSON!!!!!
COME ON DOWN!
You don’t enjoy "gambling" but you still do it.
So it’s a bit like doing a job just because the money is good?!
Colin
I think ‘Gambling’ is somewhat different from betting. For me, gambling is playing the National Lottery or Roulette and betting is where you make an informed choice and take a calculated risk when you think the odds are in your favour and do not rely on random chance factors. I also, like Gingertipster, do not like gambling. I love to bet though.
David Brady
The majority of the time in 8 runner races where the second fav just gets placed the winnings will be very low.However there are actually winnings to come.
As the old saying goes ‘Its not about what you win but what you do not lose!
Basically the ew doubles (8 runner races) are bets that no bookmaker will ever promote. The reason is that overall they can never win from them over a decent period of time.
So not really clever to concentrate on types of races bookmakers know can only do them damage overall.
Seagull, I was watching the first at Kempton and thinking of your post.
The first and second favourites were very close in the betting there must have been doubt about which would actually start favourite. In this instance should the race be left alone?
Colin
For many years an increasing proportion of the UK workforce has been employed in the public sector where, mostly, revenue is guaranteed. Those so employed don’t have the same first hand experience of entrepreneurship that those who are self-employed, or run small shops or commercial firms, acquire on a day by day basis.
I see betting professionally as entrepreneurship akin to all other forms of self-employment and running small scale enterprises dependent for income on meeting market requirements: there is no guaranteed revenue from the taxpayers’ pockets, and income is dependent on performance. None of these enterprises is without risk, but none is, in any useful sense of the word, a matter of gambling. All are attempts to apply capital and capability to good effect.
As is clear from earlier posts, those who bet professionally do so in a variety of ways, but a common feature seems to be that the endeavour is treated as work – as with any other trade, profession or job one has to put in the hours. So the real issue, it seems to me, is whether the work involved engages the individual and, in his or her personal circumstances, is how they prefer to spend their time.
And of course the work involved in betting professionally is as varied as the strategies that are employed. For me, the actual betting is, in a use of time sense, utterly peripheral – though I can see that for an exchange trader, for example, it would be central. The core work is maintaining my databases and analysing races. I neither love gambling (if I did I think it would be very destructive) nor betting (for me a straightforward mechanical process that takes a minute or two a couple of times a week). I enjoy the core work, especially the race analysis part as the database maintenance is undemanding routine (which is not to say that is can be done carelessly), and regard the returns as appropriate for that work.
Presuming he or she had already found an approach to betting which had proved robust enough to give good grounds for thinking it a realistic basis for making a living, my advice to anyone considering betting professionally is to think first and foremost about what, for them, that is going to mean on a day to day basis. And are they going to be happy doing that, compared with the other options open to them?
Agreed excellent post.
I’ve just come to the end of my third year full-time. The main attractions for me are:
a) as George says, it’s a more fulfilling way of spending my time than the years I spent stuck in soulless hotel rooms; the years I wasted stood at flipcharts talking corporate lingo bingo I’d long since stopped taking seriously; the death of a thousand meetings; the eternal commmuting; the sense of not belonging and of being caught up in a wheel of life you never asked for nor believed in, (and other Reggie Perrin woes!)
b) I find it incredibly difficult, and hence challenging. Every other job I’ve had I’ve either been 100% useless at, or found drearily easy.
c) The feedback is instant and in black and white. I used to earn far more but never felt I’d really earned it. It was just a payslip.
I wouldn’t have thought it would suit very many people though. Misanthropes and geeks mainly.
FSL,
If the opportunity arises, I would exercise my passion for racing in the punting scene as well.
Discipline will always be the key. Concentrate all your effort and punting expertise into two or three major bets for the day and the loss will not be such a deadly impact over a long period.
Although I will not help myself but play with $100 on the exotics
Ante-post is great for those longshot horses where you have the advantage against the bookie – reasons being inside information, or just top performances that were not on the premier stage as an outlook into the future.
GeorgeJ wrote :
"The core work is maintaining my databases….. "
Keeping you databases updated should only take seconds per day.
Export ( two days ago – as Raceform are still finalising the results !!!! )results and today’s declarations from, say Raceform ( no SP available yet ). Costs a few pounds per day but saves you years of data crunching – leaving you more time to analysis.
Ginge, YOU ARE THAT CERTAIN TYPE OF PERSON!!!!!
COME ON DOWN!
You don’t enjoy "gambling" but you still do it.
So it’s a bit like doing a job just because the money is good?!
Colin
Colin,
I NEVER GAMBLE!!!
I INVEST INSTEAD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Only if THE PRICE IS RIGHT!!!!!!
Ginge
Value Is EverythingFor many years an increasing proportion of the UK workforce has been employed in the public sector where, mostly, revenue is guaranteed.
The vast majority of people who work in this country are employees rather than employers. I often hear people from the private sector talk as though they are living life on the edge, ducking and diving to earn their money. In reality, private sector and public sector mostly amounts to the same thing for most people: staring at a computer screen all day for an average wage whilst putting up with managers who are either incompetent or malicious. I have worked in public and private sector areas and the two are virtually identical – the same meaningless management speak that Tooting referred to, the same soulless grinding down of talent, the same obsession with cost/targets at the expense of everything else, the same cutting of corners at the expense of employees physical and mental health, the same disregard for genuine customer service. I could go on, but I won’t.
The attraction of being self-employed is that you answer to fewer people, but ultimately, no-one is an island. We all ultimately are working for someone else, whether it’s our bank, credit card company, landlord, utility provider, family and we all depend on other people – we depend on the person driving that big lorry to stop at the pelican crossing as they should, we rely on the person making our lunchtime sandwich to wash their hands, we (even if we go private) depend on the dedication and concentration of the surgeon. The belief in the individual standing on their own is a false and deluding one.
In that context, being a professional punter is a job, no more, no less. You have to weigh up the pros and cons. The comments about temperament and many different styles are crucial. I don’t have the patience or the knowledge to be a full-time punter but if I did, the idea of staring at databases all day would drive me potty. I would need the excitement of the racecourse to give the day structure.
"Andrew Hughes wrote: The attraction of being self-employed is that you answer to fewer people, but ultimately, no-one is an island. We all ultimately are working for someone else, whether it’s our bank, credit card company, landlord, utility provider, family and we all depend on other people – we depend on the person driving that big lorry to stop at the pelican crossing as they should, we rely on the person making our lunchtime sandwich to wash their hands, we (even if we go private) depend on the dedication and concentration of the surgeon. The belief in the individual standing on their own is a false and deluding one.
Sorry, but that’s absolutely not true.If you choose to have Sky TV, you are not working for them. You are working for your own money, and you CHOOSE to buy or not buy that product. Same with water, electricty. If you CHOOSE to have a family, you are not working for them, you are working for yourself (if you are self-employed), and you CHOOSE to spend your money feeding, sheltering and caring for them. I could go on.
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