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On reflection a couple of things worth bearing in mind that I would not necessarily regard as a rule are that regarding all-weather form, in the main if a horse has shown improved form at Southwell, I wouldn’t take it at face value that it would be capable of repeating it away from there. Also I tend to tread very carefully in amateur handicaps and to be honest I usually aviod those bad staying events for amateur riders on all-weather througout the winter.
Interesting comments. I agree with the watching racing stuff….it seems obvious but I made my profit last year while I lived in Denmark and saw very few races. In fairness- i assume it was a blip.
The other thing I would say is to watch out for your own personal trends within betting. For example I have an appalling record when it comes to the citreon supreme novices at chelters and an extremely good one when it comes to the staying novices race the following day. I assume that I just understand better whats required for a horse to win this.
I have noticed some people are really good with analysing 2 year old form but Im hopeless and wouldnt touch a race like that now. Sprinters also, i keep away from.
Others have also touched on one really important aspect here. Being a small time mug punter is in some ways perhaps more enjoyable then being a serious measured better. It allows you embrace almost all the races at cheltenham and may highten your enjoyment. Once you become serious, I would imagine that it would all be completely different since youll be consigned to a watching brief only
SHL
Intersting SirHarry what you say about 2yo form becuase that’s what I was going to have a good crack at this year as being realtively new, no-one will have a form advantage over me. Last year i tended to best at these races, but I understand what you mean because of the improving aspect involved and form difficulties. About the only races i did do well in though.
DJ agreeing with me…. there really must be something in the water! I put it down to post-Chelenham fatigue!
Im not a pro, and i dont think i will ever be in that line of business.
Id advise anyone who is interested in betting to read Barney Curley’s autobiography, which someone has already mentioned on here. Not only does it give some sound advice but its also a very good read.
Im only 21 but been into racing for many years at different levels. Im only just starting to become familiar with jump form and horses to watch for/be wary of.
I will have a bet most days, but there has to be some value……. which their rarely is during the week.
With many friends working in yards across the country (mainly flat yards) i do recieve my fair share of ‘inside info’ – however, ive learnt to listen to the inside info and then most of the time ignore it unless you think the horse has a chance yourself, fairly obvious you would think, but it is so easy to get drawn in.
Its just like market movers, very tempting, i know especially when the money comes for a Barney Curley, Stuart Williams or Ian Williams trained horse, unless you are there at the start of the gamble you are more than likely to lose money.
I leave all my big bets for the big(ger) races. At least then you know all the ones with form will be trying for the big prizes. Having said that, i had a terrible Royal Ascot at York last year.
The main thing that i dont think anyone has said yet on this thread is to never back a horse odds on in a handicap.
To help everyone on their way this year, my strongest selection this year is NAKHEEL for the Eclipse……. i really hope Mark Johnston runs him there.
The 2yo’s is something i really specialise in. I know pedigree doesnt win races, but from pedigree you can find out many things, including whether the horse is likely to be an early type, what sort of trip will it want etc etc. I think 2yo races are where i make the most profit form the stake i put on. I do get to hear about the good ones but unless something makes me like them i wont back them (i missed channon’s 2yo winner today) after being told about it the other day. I just didnt like the dam and i thought the race was very competitive.
The figures, which are repeated year in, year out, show conclusively that the’average’ punter loses about 10 per cent of stakes.
I don’t believe these figures, because they don’t make sense.
Lok at betfair, it’s a 100% market with a comission of 5% or less.
That means, if you were on 5% comm. and just stuck a pin in the racecard, you should only lose 5%.
That’s only a 5% loss with zero skill.
If someone is losing more than that on betfair, they’re less capable of turning a profit than a pinsticker.
Let’s assume that backing all favourites on betfair breaks even before commission.
So, of the 140 or so favourites a week, an average punter is surely going to have some ideas about some of them being too long or too short and, just betting on the ones they have an opinion on, should be enough to make up this 5%.
The problem with the average punter is that he’s too loose with his cash.
If he made a point of making sure every bet counts (i.e. placed for the right reasons and only at value odds) and set a target of an annual profit, he’d probably place far fewer bets, but with a higher quality.
And, if he did that, he’d probably be able to turn a profit.
Steve
from Steve – So, of the 140 or so favourites a week, an average punter is surely going to have some ideas about some of them being too long or too short and, just betting on the ones they have an opinion on, should be enough to make up this 5%.
Only if their opinion enables them to assess those horses chance more accurately than the market. Not as easy as it sounds.
Only if their opinion enables them to assess those horses chance more accurately than the market. Not as easy as it sounds.
Not "these" horses, "one or more of these 140 horses".
Steve
My rules that I have learned since starting as a 11 year old clock-bag runner would include:
learn your trade first;<br>if you have a family and a mortgage keep the day job;<br>specialise;<br>simplify to what really matters – the rest is noise;<br>0-2 races per day, in depth, with a reasoned case and value price against each contender;<br>around 80% of winners are in the first five of betting forecast;<br>there is NO useful inside information – you are the best informed specialist in your kind of races;<br>the fastest horse on the day (not yesterday) wins the race.
robert
Steve – I meant ‘those horses’ out of the 140 which you had an opinion on, not all of them. Narrowing it down to a few horses, or even one,  doesn’t necessarily make it easy to be ahead. Your selection criteria and ability to accurately guage the correct price still have to be better than the market no matter how few horses you focus on. Your staking plans and bank management also have to be spot on.
I would suggest that making up the ‘missing’ 5% by focusing on the 140 favourites and identifying where yuou think the market has it wrong is not necessarily a straightforward task.
(Edited by cormack15 at 10:20 pm on Mar. 23, 2006)
Proven Punter – long term winner<br>Professional Punter – long term winner whose winnings account for all or the majority of income
Not a lot of difference other than the Pro needs balls of steel, a hefty bank and an understanding family or preferably no family/dependents.
The strategies of both are worthy of respect, it matters not whether you bet in ponies or monkees.
There seemed to be a deal of surprise when Betfair let it be known that less than 1% of their clients made more than 15K per year; it didn’t surprise me at all, what would be far more representative is the percentage who make upto15K.
No wish to be a ‘professional’ myself despite being in the fortunate position of being able to devote as much time as I wish to racing/punting; it would bore me as much as anything and in truth think my punting would suffer with having the added burden of knowing it’s outcome has to put bread on the table (or not). Stress is inversely proportional to success.
Betlarge and Carvillshill have it spot on.
My ‘rules’ also include:<br>Compiling a tissue to determine value (the golden rule)<br>Level stakes adjusted annually to 2% of available bank<br>Win singles only<br>Frequently betting two or more runners in a race, particularly against a weak fav who ‘makes the market'<br>Specialisation – knowing what type of race you’re good/bad at interpreting<br>Eyes open ears closed
AS for the actual methods of race analysis employed by a succesful punter I doubt any one punter works in the same way as another. All that matters is the method that works for you: keep it close to yor chest.
Finally always remember the learning curve is long and hard – twenty years in my case – though those lucky souls entering the fray now have never had it so good.
(Edited by Drone at 11:20 pm on Mar. 23, 2006)
Drone have you priced up any of the Newbury races as i had a go but was a bit adrift of the racing posts… :comp1:
Excellent thread everybody.
As regards specialising, how small a group is a finite group of horses? Are we talking about
1. Finding the optimum conditions for, say, 20 horses and only backing them when everything should be going their way on a particular day, or
2. Concentrate on Group 1 and Group 2 races for all age groups (or maybe limit it to those involving older horses for example), or
3. Pick a distance (a specialisation one like 7f for example) and only bet in these races
I never really know whether I’m being too specialised or not enough or just right.
What I’m hoping to concentrate on this flat season is Group races only in IRL & UK (plus a couple of Gr1s in FR – eg Arc day) broken down as follows:
2yo only<br>15 Gr1 – Gr2 races run over 7f – 8f
3yo only<br>11 Gr1 races run bt 7f – 14.5f
3yo+<br>28 Gr1 races bt 7f – 14f<br>16 Gr2 races bt 7f – 14f<br>11 Gr3 races run over 7f (love those 7f races)
What is the general opinion on this? Is this too specialised or not enough? Am I mad leaving out all the other classes of race? Am I better off concentrating on one country even. All help greatly appreciated!
To make a living on that David it looks like you’ll need a really decent strike-rate or risk a large amount of money. Given that averages out at about 2 a week for 12 months or 4 a week for the flat season.
Good luck with it though.
I plan concentrating on the races where you have ALL the details for ie. US Derby Trials, will be trialling at first but if there’s any success then will definitely carry it on through the season and will post on here
FSL
The last thing I want is my tissue agreeing with the RP forecast. Just as I dislike Pricewise, Trading Post ‘pinching’ my value bets.
Where didya get that pic of me:)
FSL
I keep a job – kids see to that – but I bet every day from March to November and turnover a significant amount.
Some of my main rules are:
a) Never back short priced favourites. Fastest way to the poor house. If you cannot get the favourite beat on form, then leave the race alone. However, do not take the forecasts as gospel. Be around for the race just in case a form horse is strangely ignored in the market. (I.e. Vanderlin today).
b) Have an average stake and stick to a deviation of about 20% either way. This was my worst failing; having peanuts on a winner and a mortgage payment on a loser. I’ve sorted that out this year. But a deviation of some kind is necessary; level stakes is not my bag.
c) Be comfortable with the size of your bets. Try to avoid the adrenalin rush of a well staked winner. Enjoy it by all means, but think if it had lost. How would you feel? A bank is no comfort if you reach for the Stella after a bad day. Take the attitude that if a horse loses, then so what? You’ll get a winner soon. Excellent advice all over this thread on long term thinking.
d) Always bet when wet! I lost loads of winning bets following the Farmer’s Almanac advice to the opposite when I first started. Fewer horses act well on the soft; spot them and you can get big prices, particularly in late season.
e) Keep a close eye on winning front runners/prominent racers. They get into less trouble. They take less jockeyship to ride. Modern training techniques, (Mark Johnston is particularly adept), mean horses are fitter than they were. As Mordin points out, horses are herd animals by and large and like to follow the pack, (something of an occupational hazard for a racehorse). Previously winning front runners have a small advantage in that they have shown the will to win.
If you can get a copy of Stewart Simpson’s 1980 potboiler "Always Back Winners", (and if you think AP’s book is out of date, wait till you see THIS classic), then it contains some wonderful stuff about picking horses with the will to win. (Like Sir Per…oh dear, Ive mentioned him again!! LOL).
f) Pay your bills first. Never bet with rent/utility/maintenance/fines money and remember; you NEVER win when you NEED to;)
g) And a personal thing. Look for the form figures 20, or 200. Why did the horse run unplaced last time out when all the signs are that the animal was running into form? Was it favourite on the unplaced run? Investigate. Doesn’t work all the time, but often enough to fill the account.
Oh, how late is this?:o
Good luck
Max
Specialising is the key. I stick to jumps and political betting. Politics if you follow the twists and turns, can be a good money spinner eg David cameron and Ming Campbell leadership elections, and the recent Lib Dem by-election victory.
Watching racing without having a bet is vital.
On the jumps I found the Irish racing on ATR enabled me to have a succesful Cheltenham with WOA and Nicanor.<br>
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