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Artemis,
As you conclude, with publicly available figures you have to be a little more discerning about your selections to obtain the value.
Best of luck.
Only one rateable race today:
<br>Lingfield 4.10
Quantum Leap     114  8th 9/1<br>Les Arcs          113  DH 3rd 11/4<br>Cheese N’ Buscuits  112  NR<br>Peruvian Style      112  9th 16/1<br>Cloud Dancer       111  last 16/1
<br>At the likely odds, I am going for Peruvian Dancer at around 20/1 (22 Betfair, 9.00am)<br>10pts ew.
A loss of 20pts, so 16pts down on the week.<br>(Edited by Artemis at 7:05 pm on Feb. 22, 2005)
<br>(Edited by Artemis at 7:06 pm on Feb. 22, 2005)<br>
(Edited by Artemis at 8:54 am on Feb. 23, 2005)
Yes, it did cross my mind. If Cloud Dancer had been a bit bigger this morning, I would have probably have included it.
Three races to consider at Lingfield:
1.30 Gulchina 87(+15) is clear top and will be worth a bet(10pts win) in the unlikely event you can get around 3/1, otherwise I’ll leave it.<br>  unpl 9/4 -no bet
3.05  Kathology 102(+19) is well clear on my ratings and is attractive at 7/2+, despite the fact that he may not have a going day. I think you are paying to find out – if he puts it in, he should win. 30pts win@7/2+<br>  unpl  7/2  loss 30pts<br>4.45
Bridge Loan     101 won 11/10<br>Boracy Dream     99 unpl<br>Alessano         98 unpl
At current odds, I’d suggest a small bet on Alessano.<br>10pts win@8/1+
unpl  8/1  loss 10pts  Not making excuses, but jockey change made 3 points difference to rating for Alessano.
A loss on the day of 40pts bringing the week’s tally to  minus 56pts
(Edited by Artemis at 5:09 pm on Feb. 23, 2005)<br>
(Edited by Artemis at 5:13 pm on Feb. 23, 2005)
You didn’t have much chance with Gulchina Artemis, it lost the race on the way down to the start, keep with it mate. :)
phunter, I think all three of yesterday’s top-rated horses are not in love with racing, but that’s often the case with producing ratings. Often, horse run to decent figures and perhaps because they are quirky, they don’t repeat the form. Or else, they return good ratings to be placed, but haven’t got the will to stick their necks out and win unless everything drops right.
For some reason, this morning’s posting hasn’t appeared on the thread. The recommended qualifiers were;
Haydock 2.20 Schuh Shine 136(+13) 20pts win@9/4+<br>   won 4/6 -3NRs in race<br>        3.20 Indalo 160(+24)  40pts win@3/1+(7/4 if Tanterani is a NR) <br>   won 7/2 (op10/3)<br>        5.00 Foly Pleasant 142(+13) 20pts win@4/1+<br>   NR<br>Sout    1.40 Attorney 107(+21) 30pts win@3/1+<br>   unpl 5/1<br>Sout    3.45 very close
Pawan          102  2nd 6/1<br>Old Bailey        102  5th 7/1<br>Sundried Tomato  102  9th 9/1 (op16/1)<br>Wainwright       100  3rd 4/1<br>Blue Knight       100  8th 5/1<br>Massey           98  6th 16/1
The obvious value bet at morning prices is Sundried Tomato. 10pts ew@16/1+ ÂÂÂ
A profit of 96 points on the day from stakes of 110pts. 40pts up on the week.
(Edited by Artemis at 6:44 pm on Feb. 24, 2005)
Three possible bets today:
Wolv 1.35 Buscador 102(+13) 10pts ew@5/1+<br> 2nd 11/2, 6/1 available +2pts <br>     4.55 Midshipman 100(+16) 20pts ew@6/1+<br> won 9/2, 11/2 best, price acceptable as there were 2 NRs + 132pts <br>Warw 1.25 Woodlands Genpower 1359+13) 20pts @6/4+ <br>unplaced 11/10, but 6/4 was easily available earlier on the exchanges -20pts
profit on the day of 114pts.<br> <br>Rest of Warwick top-rated:
2.00 Kalca Mome 152(+10) won 11/4<br>2.35 Auburn Spirit 149((+11) won 13/8<br>3.10 Miss Academy 131(+7) fell 7/4<br>3.40 Ross River 137(+11) unseated rider 13/8<br>4.15 Bob Bob Bobbiin 143(+11) won 2/5<br>4.45 Montifault 134(+11) unpl 4/6
None of the above reached the minimum level of (+13, for jump racing) to be considered as a possible bet.
(Edited by Artemis at 6:24 pm on Feb. 25, 2005)
A lot of the value has been hoovered up from my original list. No point putting up horses at prices which are unobtainable. The remains:
Ling 3.00 Saviours Spirit 106(+16), clear top-rated<br>30 pts ew @ 11/2+(6/1 now available)<br> unpl 9/2(op 11/2) -40pts<br>    3.35 Eccentric 140(+17) top-rated, but not fav yet<br>30pts @5/2 (avalable, but going quickly)<br> won 5/2 +75pts<br>    4.10 Chantico 110(+18) jt top-rated with fav, so worth a bet at around 6/1. 30pts win<br> unpl 11/2(tchd 6/1) -30pts<br>Kemp 3.45
Farmer Jack        175 won 5/1<br>Tikram            173 4th 14/1<br>Banker Count       172 3rd 12/1<br>Colonel Frank       171 fell 4/1<br>Gunther Mcbride     171 unpl 10/1
Recommend: Farmer Jack 20pts @6/1 won 5/1(plenty of 6/1 available) +120pts<br>           Banker Count 10pts ew @14/1+<br> 3rd 12/1, 14/1 available early +25pts
<br>A profit on the day of 150pts.      <br>
(Edited by Artemis at 5:54 pm on Feb. 26, 2005)
No recommended bets today. I was tempted by Golden Odyssey 134(+21) who is 12pts clear of market rival, Diamond Sal in the 2.50 at Musselburgh, but the price (5/4) is about right.
Just for interest, on a quiet day, the top-rated horses are:
Musselburgh
1.50   Rehearsal  131(+13)  won 6/4<br>2.20   Relix 114(+6)  unpl 12/1<br>2.50   Golden Odyssey 134(+31)  3rd 11/8<br>3.20   Nameless Wonder 117(+11)  unpl 7/2<br>3.50   Bodfari Signet 124(+9)  unpl 15/2<br>4.20   The Weaver 111(+13)  UR 9/4<br>4.50   Lennon 125(+18)  won 1/5
<br>Wolverhampton
2.10 Loaded Fun 37(+12)  unpl 9/2<br>2.40 Sweetwater 76(+8)  Won 9/2<br>3.10 Mr Dip 72(+10)      unpl 3/1<br>3.40 Blue Moon Hitman 59(+8)  3rd 5/1<br>4.10 Fraternity 80(+17)  won 7/2<br>4.40 Dundonald and Tiny Tim 67(+9) <br>  won 6/1, unpl 9/4
<br>Weekly Total
Stakes 410pts profit 304pts<br>(Edited by Artemis at 6:29 pm on Feb. 27, 2005)<br>
(Edited by Artemis at 9:23 am on Feb. 28, 2005)
Only one race rated for betting purposes today:
Wolv  3.50
Bubbling Fun         99(+16) 4th 9/2<br>Lennel              96 6th<br>Nantucket Sound     91 3rd<br>Kavi                90 won 15/8
Bubbling Fun  30pts @4/1 seems a decent bet. If it opened at 5/1+, then 20pts ew would be the bet.<br> took the 4/1, although it ended up bigger<br> lose 30pts
<br>Adjusting prices for Non-runners and Withdrawals
All recommended prices for horses are subject to a reduction when there are NRs and/or withdrawals.<br>There is a formula that can be used to work out what the revised price should be. The only information needed is a notional or actual price for the horse(s) that don’t take part in the race. These prices need to be converted into percentage probabilities before they are used in the formula. Tables of prices and their percentage probabilities are published regularly in the Racing Post.
Using Fractional Odds
New or revised odds  =  old odds X (100- P)/100       <br>                    ÂÂÂ
Where P is the sum of the percentage probabilities of all horses that will not take part in the race.
Example <br>The recommended odds are 5/2, and there are two NRs which were expected to be 8/1 and 5/1(forecast odds in RP). The probabilities for these odds are 11 and 17. Therefore P = 11+17 = 28
New odds  =  2.5   X    (100 – 28)/100  =  1.8 (or 9/5)
Using Decimal Odds
New or revised odds  =  [(recommended odds – 1) X  (100 – P/100)]  + 1
Using the same data as in the fractional  odds example<br>5/2 = 3.5 in decimal odds                   ÂÂÂ
new odds   =   [(3.5 – 1) X (100 – 28/100)] +1   = 2.8 (9/5 in decimal odds)
<br>
(Edited by Artemis at 6:32 pm on Feb. 28, 2005)
Today’s value bets:
Ling 3.30
Mandarin Spirit        105 3rd 10/1<br>Winhill House         104 5th 7/1<br>Smokin Joe           101 7th 10/3<br>Katiypour             101 won 10/1<br>Il Pranzo             101 10th 7/1
Mandarin Spirit 10pts ew@ 8/1+ +10pts
Ling 4.00
Steely Dan           117 7th 4/1<br>Sri Diamond           113 won 7/2
Steely Dan 20pts win@ 3/1+ -20pts
<br>Ling 4.30
Fiveoclock Express         101 5th 9/2<br>Cormorant Wharf          101 2nd 7/2<br>Barton Sands              98 4th 9/1
Fiveoclock Express 20pts win@5/1+ -20pts
<br>Leic  3.20 ÂÂÂ
Young Lorcan 133(+19), clear top- rated, 30pts win@5/2+ unseated rider, 2/1 -30pts
Leic  4.20
Advance East              125 pulled up, 20/1<br>Jordan’s Lad               123 fell 7/2<br>Ibal                      121  won 7/4              ÂÂÂ
Advance East 10pts ew@ 6/1+ -20pts
<br>80pts down on the day.
(Edited by Artemis at 8:50 am on Mar. 2, 2005)
Wetherby looks very doubtful, but if it gets the go-ahead there’s one recommended bet:
3.45 Meeting Abandoned<br>Roobihoo           135(+13)<br>After Me Boys       131<br>Julius Caesar        131
Two races were rated at Southwell:
3.35<br>Golden Dixie          97(+12) 2nd 5/1<br>Massey              97 unpl 12/1<br>Sir Sandrovitch        96 unpl 6/1<br>Queen Of Night       94 lRefused to race<br>Henry Tun           93 unpl 12/1
Massey 10pts ew@14/1+ price unavailable no bet
4.45<br>Orpen Wide         100(+10) unpl 11/4(op7/2 tchd 4/1)<br>Pianoforte            99 2nd 5/2<br>River Biscuit           96 unpl 12/1<br>Simply St Lucia        96 unpl 9/1
Orpen Wide 20pts @5/1+ one NR, 20/1,price unavailable no bet
No bets today<br>
(Edited by Artemis at 9:02 am on Mar. 3, 2005)
In the 2.40 at Lingfield, Island Rapture 102(+19) is clear top-rated, but looks too short at around 6/4.<br> 2nd 5/4 fav
Ling 3.10
The Violin Player         109(+15) won 3/1f<br>WinnersDelight          108 5th 11/1(op 12/1<br>Golano                 108 7th 10/3<br>High Point              106 8th 14/1
Winners Delight 10pts ew @12/1+ -20pts
3.40
Cheese N’ Biscuits            109(+14)<br> 3rd 2/1jf<br>Minimum Bid                 109<br> 4th 2/1jf
No value at around 2/1 for both.
4.40<br>Burgundy                    95(+12)<br> NR<br>Gold Guest                   94<br> 11th 20/1<br>Eijaz                        93<br> 4th 25/1<br>Bobby Charles                93<br> 2nd 7/2<br>Fisby                       92<br> won 15/8f<br>Bishops Finger                91<br> 10th 16/1<br>Resonate                    91<br> 5th 12/1<br>
Burgundy 10pts ew@9/1+ NR
loss on the day 20pts<br>
(Edited by Artemis at 9:05 am on Mar. 4, 2005)
Wolv 1.20
Roman Maze        110(+19) 3rd 7/2jf<br>Russian Symphony    109 2nd 7/2jf<br>Mistral Sky          106 4th 7/1
No recommended bet
Wolv 4.05
Cold Turkey         125(+15)2nd 3/1<br>Gig Harbor          124 won 11/4f<br>Mi Odds            121 5th of 7 16/1<br>Cruise Director       121 4th 9/2
Mi Odds 10pts win@14/1+ -20pts
Wolv 5.10
Zoom Zoom          106(+16) 2nd 2/1f<br>Les Arcs             104 NR<br>Il Pranzo             102 5th of 9, 6/1<br>
No recommended bet
<br>
(Edited by Artemis at 6:31 pm on Mar. 4, 2005)
It seems likely that Newbury will go ahead, so I’ve identified what I consider are two value bets:
Newb  3.05 Figaro Du Rocher 157(+21), clear top-rated by 9 points, so worth a bet. 30pts @ 3/1 generally available. NR
    5.20 Silence Reigns 139(+14) 20pts @6/4 if any<br> becomes available. 2nd 13/8 -20pts
40pts down on the day.<br>
(Edited by Artemis at 6:32 pm on Mar. 4, 2005)
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