Produce Your Own Ratings from RP

[Artemis]

Only one qualifier today:

Muss 3.30 Goblin 136(+17) 20pts win unpl 9/4

Stakes 20pts     loss 20pts

Weekly Total<br>Stakes 470pts        loss 11pts

Running Total<br>Stakes 10,377 pts     loss 242pts

(Edited by Artemis at 6:49 pm on Feb. 6, 2005)

[Artemis]

Only one qualifier today, mainly because the quality of racing is below the minimum standard(Flat, top RPR=90+, Jumps 120+).

Sout 3.20 Pawan 104(+18) 20pts ew<br>a fairly steady 6/1. I can’t see it shortening up very much.  3rd 9/1<br>Stakes 40pts   profit 25pts<br><br>I have also rated the rest of the card at Southwell for interest:

1.50 Pawn In LIfe 100(+23) won 3/10

2.20 Newtonian 102(+21)won 6/4

2.50 Dispol Peto 75(+16), Muy Bien 74(+15)<br>2nd 3/1            unpl

3.50 Lady Pekan 74(+13)  won 4/1

4.20 Dark Parade 78(+8), Lazzaz 77(+7).  <br>   won 10/11     unpl

(Edited by Artemis at 7:10 pm on Feb. 7, 2005)

[Artemis]

Two qualifiers:

MRas  2.20 Game On 141(+20) 30pts win  won 2/1

         4.20 Physical Graffiti 135(+23) 40pts win  3rd 7/2

Stakes  70pts     profit 20pts

(Edited by Artemis at 4:30 pm on Feb. 8, 2005)

[Artemis]

One qualifier:

Ling 3.05 Quantum Leap 115(+21) 20pts ew<br>about 6/1, which is disappointing in such a competitive race.<br>3rd 5/1

Stakes 40pts    level

(Edited by Artemis at 6:11 pm on Feb. 9, 2005)

[Artemis]

Three qualifiers:

Sout 1.50 Old Bailey 104(+15) 30pts win<br>-about 7/2  2nd 7/2<br>        3.20 Cloud Dancer 129(+18) 20pts ew<br>- 10/1+  7/1, unpl<br>Winc 3.30 Osiris 138(+16) 20pts win<br>-3/1(might be shorter) won 5/2

Stakes 90pts    loss 20pts<br>      

(Edited by Artemis at 9:36 am on Feb. 11, 2005)

[Artemis]

Three qualifiers:

Bang 5.00 Errol 126(+14) 20pts win<br>-about 4/1+  2nd 13/2<br>Kemp 3.45 Brown Teddy 152(+15) 20pts win<br>-about 11/4  unpl 13/8<br>         4.20 Celtic Son 150(+14) 20pts win         <br>- too short at 1/3.  won 4/11

Stakes  60pts   loss 33pts

(Edited by Artemis at 5:14 pm on Feb. 11, 2005)

[Artemis]

Ten qualifiers:

Newb    2.26 Strong Flow 186(+16) 20pts win<br>   2nd 2/1<br>             3.00  Roman Ark 169(+17) 10pts ew<br>   unpl 7/1<br>             4.10 He’s The Guv’nor 145(+14) 20pts win<br>   unpl 4/1<br>Ayr        3.10 Supreme Developer 157(+19) 30pts win<br>   NR<br>             4.20 Direct Access 155(+17) 20pts win<br>   NR<br>             4.50 Wild Cane Ridge 145(+16) 20pts win<br>   NR<br>Ling       2.05 Eccentric 133(+18) 30pts win<br>   2nd 11/4<br>             3.50 Northern Desert 105(+18) 20pts ew<br>   NR<br>Wolv     7.00 Mandarin Spirit 105(+19) 30pts win<br>   won 5/1<br>             9.00 Fiddler’s Creek 121(+19) 30pts win<br>   unpl 6/1

Stakes 150pts   profit 30pts

(Edited by Artemis at 9:14 am on Feb. 13, 2005)

[Artemis]

Four qualifiers at Exeter. The other meetings are very low standard.

Exet  2.10  All In The Stars 146(+14)  20pts win<br>     unpl,  10/1<br>         2.40 Marcel 155(+14) 20pts win<br>     2nd  1/2<br>         4.10 Oracle Des Mottes 133(+15) 20pts win<br>     unpl 4/1<br>         4.40 There Is No Doubt 121(+15) 20pts win<br>     NR

<br>Stakes 60pts    loss 60pts

Weekly Total<br>Stakes 510pts        loss 38pts

Running Total<br>Stakes 10,877pts    loss 280pts (-2.6%)

(Edited by Artemis at 8:35 am on Feb. 14, 2005)

[Artemis]

Only one qualifier:

Wolv   3.50 Bienheureux 99(+15) 30pts win<br>around 9/4, but doesn’t look good value.<br>2nd 6/4

Stakes 30pts   loss 30pts

(Edited by Artemis at 6:32 pm on Feb. 14, 2005)<br>

(Edited by Artemis at 6:42 pm on Feb. 14, 2005)

[Artemis]

one qualifier amongst very moderate racing:

Folk   3.20 Jair Ohmsford 140(+16) 20pts win<br>  – 9/4 looks a fair price.<br>    2nd 2/1

Stakes 20pts    loss 20pts

(Edited by Artemis at 4:46 pm on Feb. 15, 2005)<br>

(Edited by Artemis at 9:01 am on Feb. 16, 2005)

[Artemis]

One  qualifier:

Muss 4.00 Aleron 147(+15) 20pts win<br>- there may be quite a few backed here, so 6/1+ is possible: if nothing else gets heavy support, it could be as short as 7/2.

unpl 9/2

Stakes 20pts   loss 20pts

(Edited by Artemis at 9:27 am on Feb. 17, 2005)<br>

(Edited by Artemis at 9:28 am on Feb. 17, 2005)

[Artemis]

Five qualifiers:

Sand   3.45 Limited Edition 140(+19) 30pts win<br>     unpl 4/1<br>Sout    2.50 Romil Star 100(+16) 30pts win<br>     unpl 6/4<br>           3.25 Set Alight 102(+19) 30pts win<br>     won 9/4<br>Taun    3.35 Allumee 131(+13) 10pts win<br>     2nd 4/5<br>            5.10 Tanterani 148(+26)  40pts win <br>      won 4/9  

Stakes 140pts  profit 16pts

(Edited by Artemis at 10:16 am on Feb. 18, 2005)

[Artemis]

Three qualifiers:

Wolv 3.00 Red Chairman 101(+15) 10pts win<br>3rd 1/1<br>Sand 1.30 Caliban 129(+13) 10pts ew<br>NR<br>         3.40 Come Bye 131(+13) 20pts win<br>unpl 5/1

Stakes 30pts     loss 30pts

(Edited by Artemis at 4:51 pm on Feb. 18, 2005)

[Artemis]

Winc  2.35 Almost Broke 146(+19) 30pts win<br>     won 11/4<br>          3.05 Inglis Drever 178(+19) 30pts win<br>     won 11/10<br>Hayd  2.25 Baron Windrush 171(+16) 20pts win<br>     unpl 7/2<br>Wolv  3.15 Wessex 104(+19) 30pts win<br>     won 3/1<br>The list may be incomplete due to pressure of time, will update later.  

Additional qualifiers:

Wolv 4.15 Rock Music 109(+17) 30pts win<br>     unpl 4/9<br>Ling   1.40 Distant Thunder 161(+13) 20pts win<br>     won 6/4<br>Uttox  1.50 Always Waining 132(+13) 20pts win<br>     won 11/8<br>Hayd  2.25 Island Faith 164(+14) 20pts win<br>     unpl 7/4

Stakes 200pts   profit 193pts

Weekly Total    <br>Stakes 440pts    profit 109pts

Running Total Final Total<br>Stakes 11,327pts       loss 171pts(-1.5%)   <br>(Edited by Artemis at 10:21 am on Feb. 20, 2005)

<br>(Edited by Artemis at 6:13 pm on Feb. 20, 2005)<br>

(Edited by Artemis at 7:38 pm on Feb. 20, 2005)

[Artemis]

No qualifiers today(Sunday).

[Artemis]

Same Ratings Method, Different Approach

I think I’ve probably taken this thread as far as I can using my present approach.

The method is showing a slight loss at SP since I started posting, and records prior to that follow a very similar pattern. It’s not really a bad effort considering the large number of qualifying bets the method throws up.

I firmly believe that it would be possible to achieve profits of around 5 to 10 per cent by making use of early exchange prices and bookmaker’s morning prices, because the qualifiers are definitely overbet. I’ve mentioned before that a lot of syndicates and professionals use more sophisticated versions of the method I use, and often come up with the same selections backing them fairly close to the off. I do keep an eye on some tipping lines that almost certainly use a similar method,  possibly supplemented by some inside information. Their selections are invariably those horses that figure highly in the combined RP ratings/Topspeed figures.<br> <br>Although they emphasise winners and profitable days, overall they are not doing so well because the horses are overbet at SP.

So, a change of tack. I will now post only those horses which are highly rated(within 5 points of the top-rated horse) AND are likely to start at a decent price relative to this rating. Of course, this is much more subjective than the previous approach, but the ratings method is exactly the same. I will have to rely on my judgement of likely odds whereas the previous approach ignored prices completely. So, thankfully, a lot fewer short priced favourites, (which I’m pretty sure anyone looking at the thread gets fed up with), unless of course, they represent value.

The Staking is between 10pts(maidens) and 50 points(maximum) Win and 10 or 20pts each-way depending on level of confidence and perceived value.

Only races where the top-rated is 90+ flat(120+, jumps) are rated for betting purposes, although I sometimes look at lesser rated races for interest.

AS with the previous approach the starting bank is 30x my maximum stake, or 1,500pts.

<br>(Edited by Artemis at 7:41 pm on Feb. 20, 2005)<br>

(Edited by Artemis at 7:42 pm on Feb. 20, 2005)

[Artemis]

Only one rateable race:

Lingield 4.30

Zalkani             111  3rd 8/1<br>Dower House   110  4th 8/1<br>Karaoke           109  2nd 5/1<br>Kew Green       108  won 3/1

Recommended: Zalkani 10pts ew@ around 13/2<br>– would probably have taken the early 7/1, so a small profit of 4 pts.<br>

(Edited by Artemis at 7:10 pm on Feb. 21, 2005)

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