- This topic has 244 replies, 40 voices, and was last updated 5 years, 1 month ago by
.
-
Posts
-
Waldgeist and Fierement for me.
I think Fierement was done by the shorter straight at Nakayama but won nicely next time. Provided he’s not boxed in and has time to find stride then should run well.
Waldgeist had just two lengths to find and it wasn’t the greatest of rides at Ascot.Treve and enable are worlds apart potato, not the same scenario atall and its no secret enable had a very tough time getting 100% last season, different proposition this year
Japans group 1 juddmonte win is about as bad a group 1 form about, up there with ghaiyaaths, CO absolutely did not run any rating in the 120s, 3rd and 4th are not proper group 1 animals, elarqam was extremely flattered by how bad this race was, japan a big big place lay for me in this, ill be surprised if he can get in the 4
Its very easy to rule out ghaiyaath also on his last run, hammered by an unfit waldgeist, bar that last run (against nothing) he doesnt even deserve to be in the lineup, jac has the only price worth taking on him
Will be interesting to see who moore rides, id suspect japan just because it would be unlikely magical beats enable, but that would be the only reason, shes a better horse than japan. She will finish infront of him
Waldgeist is pretty fresh for this, if everything runs there race he cant beat enable but he could very very easily get in the 3
When Ghaiyyath lost to Waldegeist it was over a shorter trip. Ghaiyyath was sent off 1/2fav to win but ran flat.
Was there a reason he ran flat?
It was his 2nd run back from a break and the race came too soon. Its easy to forget this form.
The horse has improved immensely since then and comes into the arc as the most devestating winner of the Grossee Preis Van Baden in history.
Its easy to say the rivals werent all that but you cant ignore the manner that he despatched them. Also 3 previous winners of the Arc won off the back of the win in the Baden Baden race including godolphins arc winner Marienbard and none of those were anywhere near as impressive as Ghaiyyath.Buicks comments on the horse were ‘Hes a monster an absolute monster’. Buick has ridden many group 1 winners but I have never heard him so excited about a horse. When a jockey as level headed and experienced as Buick starts sounding like a potato then perhaps the horse is somewhat more talented than you realise.
Would love to see Enable do it but it’s Sottsass for me, with a bit each-way on Mehdaayih if she gets a decent draw (and runs!).
I was going to wait but have convinced myself that now is the time to attack as the field becomes 16 at the first forefeit stage. Played on betfair win market for a similar return on either though slightly more back if Godolphin do it.
JAPAN win 7.8 (2/3 of my stake)
GHAIYYATH win 16.0 (1/3 of my stake)THE KARATE KID vs THE MONSTER
You would think that only a bad draw and/or traffic problems will stop her as most of the field she has dealt with before and is not the strongest – Sottsass is the dark horse but his run style (coming from off the pace) may mean he will be giving Enable a headstart, which simply won’t work.
Japan will need to improve massively as none of his form looks good enough (lets not get started on how bad the Juddmonte looks now) – the Mehdaayih call at a big price is a good shout as she acts well with some give underfoot and she really should have won the Nassau (she was a bit too free early on) and in retrospect Dettori probably would have held onto her a little bit longer up the straight.
Heading over to Paris on Saturday, very excited for this!
Enable for me is a very worthy 8/11 shot. I’d have her around 4/6, she definitely has a 58-60% chance IMO. Really hope she does it, the atmosphere will be incredible and i’m planning on buying some fancy bottles of beer in Paris to celebrate her.
Sottsass is the one for me that is a bit of value. 7/1 with Denise looks generous. Has shown an incredible change of gear in his last two starts and the only question mark i have is if he will stay the 12F well, but i’m happy to take that on at the price and have had a swing each way on him.
Japan is a horse i loved all spring, had a hefty go on him e/w for the Derby around April time
but his form doesn’t mount up. France performance was very workmanlike and then the Juddmonte win for all that he won nicely over an inadequate 10F, is poor form on reflection. I’d have him nearer 8s and Magical nearer him at 8-10s. Mehdaayih is an interesting runner if she goes, 3YO fillies have a great record and she’s no mug. Chester win was incredibly impressive and she looked good in France last run also. Think i’ll play her e/w if/when books go 4 places on the day.
Mike, where are those comments about Ghaiyyath, do you have them somewhere?
Frenchy, I read it on a racing website at the time cant remember which one.
Only one winner of the arc in the last 15 years was a 3yo who had never raced against there elders prior to the arc. That was Hurricane Run trained by ‘The Master’ Andre Fabre.
Sottass looks horribly underpriced bearing this in mind.
Can’t bet on this one until I see the draw and ground. There’s a stat somewhere I need to dig out, but something like when it’s soft for the Arc, only Treve has won from a stall higher than 8 in the last 15/20 odd years.
I rarely take much notice of stats but agree that Sottass should be a bigger price on what he has achieved so far. I’ll stick with him on that basis alone in the hope that somebody knows something I don’t! Also agree that, on what we know, Enable should win. Too short for me (and I wouldn’t want to put the mockers on by backing her anyway) You do need a bit of luck to win one Arc (never mind three) though, so worth the small time gambler looking elsewhere.
Luck is my concern with Mehdaayih as, even in her short career, she has seemed to attract more than her fair share of the bad sort.
I dug out the stats on the draw. I was confusing a bit with the ground, so ignoring that and taking out the 2 recent Chantilly runs, being a different course, then….
16/20 Drawn no higher than 8
13/20 Drawn no higher than 6Looking at the 4 horses drawn higher than 8…..
4/4 were no higher than 9/2 in the market so very well fancied. 9/2, 9/2, 9/4 & 11/5F
3/4 Had recorded a previous race RPR of at least 126 in a Group1 over distance. (the exception was Treve who came in off winning 2 Group 1s on only her 5th start).Basically that puts all of them, except Enable, Waldgeist & Ghaiyyath majorly up against it should they get drawn higher than 8, so the draw is definitely worth waiting for. There’s a huge draw bias for the Arc.
Mehdaayih interests me a little tbh
Has a great turn of foot and will love the ease in the ground
Paddypower have her 33/1 w/o enable
I most likely wont have a bet as I just want to see enable win but that is tempting me
Or I may back her to place in the first 4 on the exchange if the price is right
One to mull over for a few days
these?
“William felt he hasn’t got the turn of foot on slower ground,” Appleby said. “But personally I feel he’s ready to step up to a mile and a half [from 10 furlongs] now.
“Group One horses generally have a gear change. That’s why they are what they are. I’m not taking away from what he beat last time but he had a soft lead and got a nice distance in front so they had to work hard to pick him up. Today they sat close to him, he was there to be picked up and that’s what happened. We knew coming into the race that it would be a test for him but I’d be hoping to step him up to a mile and a half sooner rather than later.”
Hmmm interesting! Any comments after the German run as that was a significant step up in RPR
All I have;
“We were confident and hopeful the step up to a mile and a half would suit him and it’s always great when a plan comes to fruition,” said the Englishman.
“We were very happy with his first run back this season and while he was beaten in his second start we took the positives out of it.
“I was lucky enough to be able to give him a summer break. Some people might question what he beat, but he did it very well.”
“We will discuss the Arc with his Highness Sheikh Mohammed in the next week to 10 days and see how the horse is.”And these are from earlier in Aprilish after the prix d’harcourt
“From three to four his sire Dubawi has the best stats in the world so I was confident in that, but I was also confident in the horse himself,” said Appleby.
“He’s always been a very powerful traveller. I said to William, ‘Just keep it simple, don’t interfere with him’. William has gone out there and given him a peach of a ride.”
“He’s two from two here so it’s safe to say he’s comfortable here,” said Appleby. “The plan has always been to hopefully step him up to a mile and a half in time.
“I’m not going to get away from it, I feel he’s potentially an Arc horse. We’ve got a lot of water to go under the bridge, but he’s started off on the right foot.”
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.