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Hi GT, great to see you back in form. Any chance you may start a dedicated thread again for your selections with points staked etc.
Thanks mate.
You’re the only one who likes my “points” staking, Mtoto. :lol:New thread a distinct possibility, although wouldn’t be able to do as many write ups in a proper dedicated DLAP thread.
Value Is EverythingJohn Gosden throws 3 darts at this and has the last 3 home. Add to that he trained 2 out of the last 3 in the Bahrain Trophy and you have to start thinking this is a stable to avoid for the time being.
Look at the prices of those horses Charles.
Apart from Wings Of Eagles I don’t think any of them could be expected to do much better.
Crowned Eagle was 13/2 but imo far too short considering his form. Also usually a prominent rcer and pulled too hard. Tricorn’s race was totally different to the strongly run Ascot handicap last time. All the rest today were double figures, some rank outsiders. Before today 4 winners and 2 beaten less than a length from 12 runners in the last 5 days.I think Gosden is at least in his usual form, if not a little better. Nothing that would worry me yet.
Value Is EverythingWell done Ginge and Middle of March, great shout for Hawkbill, he looked very well in the paddock albeit awash with sweat but that is probably by nature as it was a very warm day and there were record crowds at Newmarket today.
Can’t say I’m not disappointed with Frontiersman’s run but that’s racing and as Voleur says he certainly has some temperament issues to sort out.
I seem to be backing all the naughty boys at the moment first Eminent and now Frontiersman.Not one favourite won at Newmarket today and only one even made the frame and that was actually Frontiersman, it was tough going. Ryan Moore drew a blank and so did Frankie while Jim Crowley was on fire today.
Good luck for the next couple of days..Jac
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Congratulations GT and MOM. Ginger, you’re not related to the Braham Seer are you
by any chance? you couldn’t have described the race any better if you were commenting
on it whilst it was happening. Top notchI’ve followed this horse from a 2yo being the son of Ouija Board and her best to date.
A bit harsh on a certain Australia, don’t you think Jac 😉
But I agree, Frontiersman is the one for me. Contrary to popular belief I think Hawkbill was rather flattered by his defeat at the hands of Highland Reel. Much is being made of him trying to go with the Ballydoyle horse, but at the end of the day he simply wasn’t good enough. Highland Reel is one tough horse, but he’s not quite Giant’s Causeway.
Frontiersman 11/10.
Just seen this Voleur, Apologies to yourself, Ouija Board and Australia…blushes all round
Australia completely slipped my mind as I’ve been so taken with Frontiersman lately while himself has been busy at stud. I guess we might be seeing some of his progeny soon, that’s going to be exciting.Thank you for putting me right and let’s hope Frontiersman can gather himself together and get back to winning ways. Maybe they should take him back to the Rowley Mile course he seems to like it better there..Jac
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Go on my son! 9s in a place was bonkers. Rightfully backed into 9/2.
Well I’m Ginge as well.
Hi GT, great to see you back in form. Any chance you may start a dedicated thread again for your selections with points staked etc.
Thanks mate.
You’re the only one who likes my “points” staking, Mtoto. 😆New thread a distinct possibility, although wouldn’t be able to do as many write ups in a proper dedicated DLAP thread.
Hi GT, great to see you back in form. Any chance you may start a dedicated thread again for your selections with points staked etc.
Thanks mate.
You’re the only one who likes my “points” staking, Mtoto. 😆New thread a distinct possibility, although wouldn’t be able to do as many write ups in a proper dedicated DLAP thread.
I am sure that many of your followers appreciate your points staked approach as it shows the strength and value of your opinion. You do have a unique approach to your betting and your staking is crucial to maximising profits ie Lord Yeats (you stated was your far larger stake despite being biggest odds – unfortunately, I missed this as I wasn’t aware of your thread). Good luck
I am sure that many of your followers appreciate your points staked approach as it shows the strength and value of your opinion. You do have a unique approach to your betting and your staking is crucial to maximising profits ie Lord Yeats (you stated was your far larger stake despite being biggest odds – unfortunately, I missed this as I wasn’t aware of your thread). Good luck
I’ll unfortunately have to put you right on that one, Mtoto. What I actually said in that DLAP Newmarket thread was, “to win by far most money”. ie Of my two “main bets” in the race Midterm had most money staked @ 5/2, but Lord Yeats @ 14/1 would (and did
) win me a lot more than Midterm would’ve done.Here’s the quote:
2:05
I’ve backed three in the first at Newmarket (you know me). I backed Second Step when a non-runner at Royal Ascot, Stable in excellent form and possible Charlton can pull a bit more to get right back to his best. However, has been held up in most recent races and with Spencer on board those may also be the tactics here – @ 100/30 just a saver in a race that might be slowly run. Midterm doesn’t always race prominently but led in France – running perfectly well – and wasn’t very far behind the leader at Newbury; main bet @ 5/2. Red Verden will perhaps be the most inconvenienced by a slowish pace, Mount Logan doesn’t seem to have much of a change of speed either. Not convinced of Platitude‘s temperament. However, my other main bet (to win by far most money) is the outsider Lord Yeats @ 14/1. May only be a handicpper at this point but is improving, goes well on a soft surface, may get an easy lead and trainer Jed O’Keeffe is in the form of his life!Reminder of my staking system, which allows for putting more money on horses with a bigger chance of winning and how much value is in the bet:
My idea of the horse’s chance (in percentaage terms), minus available odds (in percentge terms), multiplied by 7, plus my idea of the horse’s chance.So today I believe Nyaleti has a fair 34.5% (fair 15/8 chance) and is available @ 9/4 (30.8%).
34.5 – 30.8 = 3.7
3.7 X 7 = 25.9
25.9 + 30.8 = 56.7 (rounded up 57)
My stake is 57 points @ 9/4.
Whatever each “point” is worth should depend on the punter’s finances.
Hope that helps, Mtoto.Congratulations GT and MOM. Ginger, you’re not related to the Braham Seer are you
by any chance? you couldn’t have described the race any better if you were commenting
on it whilst it was happening. Top notchWho?
Thanks BigG.
As you can see from the above quote, probable/possible pace in the race is something I pay particular attention to in every race. Something I believe is not fully allowed for in early odds markets which gives me an edge.Hopefully Nyaleti will do the bizz today for the front-runners/pace bias at Newmarket.
Value Is EverythingGT – If both Arabian Hope and Wuheida were both main bets would your stakes be 35pts and 55pts respectively?
I am sure that many of your followers appreciate your points staked approach as it shows the strength and value of your opinion. You do have a unique approach to your betting and your staking is crucial to maximising profits ie Lord Yeats (you stated was your far larger stake despite being biggest odds – unfortunately, I missed this as I wasn’t aware of your thread). Good luck
I’ll unfortunately have to put you right on that one, Mtoto. What I actually said in that DLAP Newmarket thread was, “to win by far most money”. ie Of my two “main bets” in the race Midterm had most money staked @ 5/2, but Lord Yeats @ 14/1 would (and did
) win me a lot more than Midterm would’ve done.Here’s the quote:
2:05
I’ve backed three in the first at Newmarket (you know me). I backed Second Step when a non-runner at Royal Ascot, Stable in excellent form and possible Charlton can pull a bit more to get right back to his best. However, has been held up in most recent races and with Spencer on board those may also be the tactics here – @ 100/30 just a saver in a race that might be slowly run. Midterm doesn’t always race prominently but led in France – running perfectly well – and wasn’t very far behind the leader at Newbury; main bet @ 5/2. Red Verden will perhaps be the most inconvenienced by a slowish pace, Mount Logan doesn’t seem to have much of a change of speed either. Not convinced of Platitude‘s temperament. However, my other main bet (to win by far most money) is the outsider Lord Yeats @ 14/1. May only be a handicpper at this point but is improving, goes well on a soft surface, may get an easy lead and trainer Jed O’Keeffe is in the form of his life!Reminder of my staking system, which allows for putting more money on horses with a bigger chance of winning and how much value is in the bet:
My idea of the horse’s chance (in percentaage terms), minus available odds (in percentge terms), multiplied by 7, plus my idea of the horse’s chance.So today I believe Nyaleti has a fair 34.5% (fair 15/8 chance) and is available @ 9/4 (30.8%).
34.5 – 30.8 = 3.7
3.7 X 7 = 25.9
25.9 + 30.8 = 56.7 (rounded up 57)
My stake is 57 points @ 9/4.
Whatever each “point” is worth should depend on the punter’s finances.
Hope that helps, Mtoto.Congratulations GT and MOM. Ginger, you’re not related to the Braham Seer are you
by any chance? you couldn’t have described the race any better if you were commenting
on it whilst it was happening. Top notchWho?
Thanks BigG.
As you can see from the above quote, probable/possible pace in the race is something I pay particular attention to in every race. Something I believe is not fully allowed for in early odds markets which gives me an edge.Hopefully Nyaleti will do the bizz today for the front-runners/pace bias at Newmarket. 😉
Ginge, The Brahan Seer is a 17th century Scottish version of Nostradamus…..I thought you might have
blood ties to him after your foresight as to how the race would unfold
GT – If both Arabian Hope and Wuheida were both main bets would your stakes be 35pts and 55pts respectively?
Myself, I wouldn’t back Wuheida yet, Mtoto – I want to see a more positive market move to make him worth a main bet. I’ve only done Arabian Hope with a saver on Wuheida so far.
But if I was backing both as main bets it would be:My price for both horses is now 4/1 (20%)
Wuheida is available @ 11/2 (15.4%)
So 20 – 15.4 = 4.6
4.6 X 7 = 32.2
32.2 + 20 = 52.252 points @ 11/2 Wuheida.
Arabian Hope now available @ 6/1 (14.3%).
20 – 14.3 = 5.7
5.7 X 7 = 39.9
39.9 + 20 = 59.960 points @ 6/1 Arabian Hope
Value Is EverythingGinge, The Brahan Seer is a 17th century Scottish version of Nostradamus…..I thought you might have
blood ties to him after your foresight as to how the race would unfoldBeing ginger, quite possible I have some Scottish blood. :lol:
Value Is EverythingGinge, The Brahan Seer is a 17th century Scottish version of Nostradamus…..I thought you might have
blood ties to him after your foresight as to how the race would unfoldBeing ginger, quite possible I have some Scottish blood. 😆
I rest my case
GT – If both Arabian Hope and Wuheida were both main bets would your stakes be 35pts and 55pts respectively?
Myself, I wouldn’t back Wuheida yet, Mtoto – I want to see a more positive market move to make him worth a main bet. I’ve only done Arabian Hope with a saver on Wuheida so far.
But if I was backing both as main bets it would be:My price for both horses is now 4/1 (20%)
Wuheida is available @ 11/2 (15.4%)
So 20 – 15.4 = 4.6
4.6 X 7 = 32.2
32.2 + 20 = 52.252 points @ 11/2 Wuheida.
Arabian Hope now available @ 6/1 (14.3%).
20 – 14.3 = 5.7
5.7 X 7 = 39.9
39.9 + 20 = 59.960 points @ 6/1 Arabian Hope
GT, Have you made a mistake in the above calculations.
Wuheida is available @ 11/2 (15.4%)
So 20 – 15.4 = 4.6
4.6 X 7 = 32.2
32.2 + 15.4 = 47.648 points @ 11/2 Wuheida.
Arabian Hope now available @ 6/1 (14.3%).
20 – 14.3 = 5.7
5.7 X 7 = 39.9
39.9 + 14.3 = 54.255 points @ 6/1 Arabian Hope
The final calculation surely adds the betting percentage of the current available odds, not your true odds betting percentage. Is this the correct method as that is how you calculated the stake on Nyaleti?
Also, do you have a staking calculation for lay bets Eg for Caravaggio at 2.12?
Sorry, I made a mistake with Nyaleti Mtoto. Happily for me. :lol:
Idea of the staking system is to include how much chance I believe the horse has got (not what bookies/the market believes) and how much value I believe there is (difference between my assessment and market).Value Is Everything
) win me a lot more than Midterm would’ve done.
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