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Princess Of Wales Stakes 2017

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  • #1309798
    Avatar photoGingertipster
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    Princess Of Wales:

    At the prices I want to be against the favourite here. For all Frontiersman was second to subsequent Prince Of Wales winner Highland Reel, but he also showed a bit of temperament there. Rolling down the camber and awkward head carriage. I guess that’s why he’s wearing cheek pieces for the first time now. RUK’s preview says Appleby has a great record with cp’s first time out; but I don’t like horses wearing fto cp’s immediately after a personal best. If it was only the track that was the problem will be hard to beat; but 13/8 – not for me.

    Prefer the second string Hawksbill, who was 3 1/2 lengths behind his stable companion at Epsom. Looking to be travelling best around Tattenham Corner, argueably went after Highland Reel too soon. Running well enough to suggest he acts on a sound surface. Looks the most likely to set the pace here and dictating a slow pace to suit his kick/speed could give a considerale advantage. 2016 Eclipse winner. Ran poorly last time out (in France) only 11 days ago, but am more likely to excuse a poor run abroad. Worth taking a chance at double figure odds.

    My biggest bet is Poet’s Word, who imo may well have gone for the Hardwicke if not for the stable companion favourite for that race being owned by the Queen. Got too far back in a slowly run Huxley. Only going down by a rapidly diminishing neck. All the way winner Deauville only 1 1/2 lengths 3rd in Queen Anne. Way Poet’s Word finished suggests this trip should suit. Hopefully Ryan won’t make the same mistake as Andrea.

    Could be said Wings Of Desire isn’t that consistent. Form figures of 429-5 since the Dante win. But Epsom was too soft for a horse with his action; International too short and 3 1/2 lengths behind Idaho not a bad reappearance. The “2” is when getting closer to Highland Reel in the King George VI than Frontiersman did in the Coronation Cup. Gosden now tries cheek pieces.

    Algometer was a good 1 1/4 lengths second to Autocratic in the Brigadier Gerrard. Coming out the best horse at the weights. This is another step up in grade though and am doubtful he’ll get the run of the race.

    Western Hymn am always happy to oppose, runs far more poor races than good and Mantahaa seems in poor form.

    My 100% Book:
    Frontiersman 9/4, Poet’s Word 11/4, Wings Of Desire 4/1, Hawkbill 8/1, Algometer 12/1, Western Hymn 33/1, Muntahaa 40/1.

    I’ve backed Poet’s Word @ 7/2 and Hawkbill @ 11/1 with a saver on Wings Of Eagles @ 9/2.

    Value Is Everything
    #1309800
    Avatar photoCharlesOlney
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    Yeah, Frontiersman may well win and is clearly progressive but you have to wonder if the Coronation fell apart in front of him and he was flattered by the result. I’ll take him on also at 13/8. I’ll take him on with Wings Of Desire (9/2) and Algometer (10/1). The former reached a mark of 118 in the King George to Frontiersman’s 117 in the Coronation and I feel he can be forgiven his poor run in the Juddmonte when probably over the top for the season and ran a cracker when not all fell right for him in the Hardwicke. I think he can give Frankie a ‘flying’ return to action. Algometer defeated none other than Dartmouth in last year’s Arc Trial after a fair enough run in The Derby. He came back to run a barnstormer at Sandown over a trip to short and ground too quick. Back at a more galloping track and on easier going I feel he too has a massive chance. At the prices, I’m more than happy with these two.

    #1309803
    Avatar photoGingertipster
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    You make a good case for Algometer, Charles. That defeat of Dartmouth did come getting more than weight for age… But on second looking I may have under-estimated his chance. Could easily improve again stepped back up in trip; although still think could find himself too far back.

    Value Is Everything
    #1309805
    Avatar photoviktors89
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    Frontiersman’s the one to beat in this one… I think he will keep progressing and win again, and I’ve done a Straight Forecast with Algometer on 2nd place.

    Good luck to everyone!

    #1309810
    Avatar photoTriptych
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    Really looking forward to this race Ginge and Charles and Frontiersman is my NAP of the day :heart:

    I’ve followed this horse from a 2yo being the son of Ouija Board and her best to date.

    I believe he will battle up that hill and see off his rivals tomorrow and the hood he will be wearing should keep him focused. I saw how disappointed Charlie Appleby looked when Frontiersman went down to Highland Reel at Ascot, tomorrow he will get his winner.

    Both his wins at Newmarket have been on the Rowley Mile G/Firm tomorrow the ground will be good after a certain amount of rain on Tuesday I think he will handle it well.

    Hawkbill had a hard race in France last time out after running third to Highland Reel and Frontiersman and I think this race might have come too soon for him.

    Running in a Grade lower race than last time out and with William Buick favouring him Frontiersman fits the bill. :good:

    Great write up as always Ginge but only one horse for me Frontiersman all the way . Good luck :yahoo: Jac

    Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...
    #1309830
    Avatar photoVoleur
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    ve followed this horse from a 2yo being the son of Ouija Board and her best to date.

    A bit harsh on a certain Australia, don’t you think Jac ;-)

    But I agree, Frontiersman is the one for me. Contrary to popular belief I think Hawkbill was rather flattered by his defeat at the hands of Highland Reel. Much is being made of him trying to go with the Ballydoyle horse, but at the end of the day he simply wasn’t good enough. Highland Reel is one tough horse, but he’s not quite Giant’s Causeway.

    Frontiersman 11/10.

    #1309833
    Avatar photoNathan Hughes
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    Frontiersman for me too but be careful if Hawkbill gets to dictate the pace

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    #1309834
    Avatar photoMiddle_Of_March
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    Princess Of Wales:

    At the prices I want to be against the favourite here. For all Frontiersman was second to subsequent Prince Of Wales winner Highland Reel, but he also showed a bit of temperament there. Rolling down the camber and awkward head carriage. I guess that’s why he’s wearing cheek pieces for the first time now. RUK’s preview says Appleby has a great record with cp’s first time out; but I don’t like horses wearing fto cp’s immediately after a personal best. If it was only the track that was the problem will be hard to beat; but 13/8 – not for me.

    Prefer the second string Hawksbill, who was 3 1/2 lengths behind his stable companion at Epsom. Looking to be travelling best around Tattenham Corner, argueably went after Highland Reel too soon. Running well enough to suggest he acts on a sound surface. Looks the most likely to set the pace here and dictating a slow pace to suit his kick/speed could give a considerale advantage. 2016 Eclipse winner. Ran poorly last time out (in France) only 11 days ago, but am more likely to excuse a poor run abroad. Worth taking a chance at double figure odds.

    My biggest bet is Poet’s Word, who imo may well have gone for the Hardwicke if not for the stable companion favourite for that race being owned by the Queen. Got too far back in a slowly run Huxley. Only going down by a rapidly diminishing neck. All the way winner Deauville only 1 1/2 lengths 3rd in Queen Anne. Way Poet’s Word finished suggests this trip should suit. Hopefully Ryan won’t make the same mistake as Andrea.

    Could be said Wings Of Desire isn’t that consistent. Form figures of 429-5 since the Dante win. But Epsom was too soft for a horse with his action; International too short and 3 1/2 lengths behind Idaho not a bad reappearance. The “2” is when getting closer to Highland Reel in the King George VI than Frontiersman did in the Coronation Cup. Gosden now tries cheek pieces.

    Algometer was a good 1 1/4 lengths second to Autocratic in the Brigadier Gerrard. Coming out the best horse at the weights. This is another step up in grade though and am doubtful he’ll get the run of the race.

    Western Hymn am always happy to oppose, runs far more poor races than good and Mantahaa seems in poor form.

    My 100% Book:
    Frontiersman 9/4, Poet’s Word 11/4, Wings Of Desire 4/1, Hawkbill 8/1, Algometer 12/1, Western Hymn 33/1, Muntahaa 40/1.

    I’ve backed Poet’s Word @ 7/2 and Hawkbill @ 11/1 with a saver on Wings Of Eagles @ 9/2.

    I’m on Hawkbill at 9/1

    Love the horse and have backed him virtually every time he’s run (in this country) including that Eclipse win.

    Went for Journey in the Coronation Cup last time but spent the entire race thinking Hawkbill was travelling beautifully.

    There was something in that run that, to me, suggests he’s heading back to his best. And his best is better than any of these. Frontiersman is the obvious danger if progressing again but I think things fell into place for him at Epsom when he ran a close second that day. At the prices, Hawkbill is a value bet at 9s I think

    #1309840
    Avatar photoGingertipster
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    ve followed this horse from a 2yo being the son of Ouija Board and her best to date.

    A bit harsh on a certain Australia, don’t you think Jac 😉

    But I agree, Frontiersman is the one for me. Contrary to popular belief I think Hawkbill was rather flattered by his defeat at the hands of Highland Reel. Much is being made of him trying to go with the Ballydoyle horse, but at the end of the day he simply wasn’t good enough. Highland Reel is one tough horse, but he’s not quite Giant’s Causeway.

    Frontiersman 11/10.

    Of course, “at the end of the day he (Hawkbill) simply wasn’t good enough”, Voleur. I don’t think anyone is saying he’d have beaten Highland Reel, or Frontiersman for that matter. What I mean is Hawkbill barely stays 1m4f; so by going “after Highland Reel too soon”, the jockey is placing more emphsis on his own horse’s stamina. Had the effort been delayed imo Hawkbill would’ve finished closer to Frontiersman than the 3 1/2 lengths margin. In today’s race I can see no other horse that likes to lead, so (although an enterprising jockey might change usual tactics) there’s a good chance Doyle will be able to dictate a slowish pace – placing more emphasis on speed at the trip – which is Hawkbill’s strength.

    There’s no denying Frontiersman has by far the best chance of all the runners, a much better chance than Hawkbill. But to be a good bet @ 11/10 a punter needs to believe Frontiersman has a better than 47% chance (imo he doesn’t). To be a good bet @ 7/1 a punter only needs to believe he has a better than 12.5% chance (imo he does).

    Value Is Everything
    #1309846
    Avatar photoCharlesOlney
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    Poet’s Word is a non-runner unfortunately. I don’t know what the reason is.

    Bet365 are showing a 20p deduction.

    #1309847
    LostSoldier3
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    Poet’s Word is a non-runner unfortunately. I don’t know what the reason is.

    Bet365 are showing a 20p deduction.

    Self cert (temperature)

    #1309853
    Avatar photoGingertipster
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    Could not have planned it better. B-)

    Value Is Everything
    #1309854
    Avatar photoVoleur
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    Congrats GT you called that one right. :good:

    An intelligent ride from James Doyle, a pity Muntahaa didn’t get in his face a bit more for us Frontiersman backers. He kicked off his own fractions and Frontiersman had ran his race playing catch up.

    The first time cheekpieces didn’t do anything for this nutcase of a horse, it’s hard to know if his violent swerve to the left was a race losing move, but he certainly would have finished closer. Once again he’s the one to take out of the race, but I won’t be backing him again at such prohibitive odds until they’ve sorted out his temperament.

    #1309856
    Avatar photoCharlesOlney
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    Well punted in the end the winner but then I suppose with the non-runner he became the obvious alternative for many on course.

    Those shrewd operators (like you Ginge) who managed to nab the 8/1 before Poet’s Word came out more than bettered SP despite the 20p deduction, so well done!

    John Gosden throws 3 darts at this and has the last 3 home. Add to that he trained 2 out of the last 3 in the Bahrain Trophy and you have to start thinking this is a stable to avoid for the time being.

    #1309857
    Avatar photoGingertipster
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    Well punted in the end the winner but then I suppose with the non-runner he became the obvious alternative for many on course.

    Those shrewd operators (like you Ginge) who managed to nab the 8/1 before Poet’s Word came out more than bettered SP despite the 20p deduction, so well done!

    John Gosden throws 3 darts at this and has the last 3 home. Add to that he trained 2 out of the last 3 in the Bahrain Trophy and you have to start thinking this is a stable to avoid for the time being.

    “More than bettered (7/2) SP”; by a mile, Charles! More than doubled! :good:
    I actually took 11.5/1 before Poet’s Word came out – on betfair – so with the reduction factor that’s reduced to 8.6/1. Also took 7/1 after Poet’s Word came out. B-)

    Value Is Everything
    #1309859
    MTOTO88
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    Hi GT, great to see you back in form. Any chance you may start a dedicated thread again for your selections with points staked etc. :good:

    #1309860
    Avatar photoGingertipster
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    Congrats GT you called that one right. :good:

    An intelligent ride from James Doyle, a pity Muntahaa didn’t get in his face a bit more for us Frontiersman backers. He kicked off his own fractions and Frontiersman had ran his race playing catch up.

    The first time cheekpieces didn’t do anything for this nutcase of a horse, it’s hard to know if his violent swerve to the left was a race losing move, but he certainly would have finished closer. Once again he’s the one to take out of the race, but I won’t be backing him again at such prohibitive odds until they’ve sorted out his temperament.

    Thanks Voleur,
    tbh Did tink it was fairly evident at Epsom there’s quite a bit of temperament in Frontiersman. You’re right, not one to take a short price about. Not sure “he’s the one to take out of the race”though, given what happened; that said… Hawkbill’s chance in a big one will usually be ruined by Coolmore “spoilers”… I mean pacemakers. Had his conditions today.

    P.S. Well done MOM too.

    Value Is Everything
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