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with Notre Pere out weights going up 12 lbs; money going on Bella Mana Mou and Skip Two with rain forecast over the weekend….my bet on Niche Market not looking so good now.
with Notre Pere out weights going up 12 lbs;
Do you know something we don’t? Last I heard Jim Dreaper was declaring him and having a look at the ground on Monday.
(3:55) 67D Powers Whiskey Irish Grand National S’ch
(Grade A) €141,500.00 ( 3m 5f – 5yo+ )
1 Notre Pere (FR)(161) (JTRDreaper) – AELynch(C) ……………..11,12
2 Wichita Lineman(149) (JO’Neill (in GB)) – APMcCoy…………………11,00
3 Chelsea Harbour(147) (TMullins) – EMullins(3)……………….10,12
4 One Cool Cookie(147) (CFSwan) – DNRussell(C)(T)……….10,12
5 Casey Jones(145) (NMeade) – PCarberry(T)…………….10,10
6 Royal County Star(145) (AJMartin) – DJCasey ………………….10,10
7 Vic Venturi(144) (DTHughes) – DFO’Regan………………10,09
8 Garde Champetre (FR)(141) (EBolger) – MissNCarberry………….10,06
9 Arbor Supreme(140) (WPMullins) – NPMadden……………….10,05
10 Rare Bob(140) (DTHughes) – PWFlood ……10,05
11 Drumconvis(139) (AJMartin) – BJGeraghty 10,04
12 Himalayan Trail (GB)(136) (JJMangan) – RMPower(T) …………….10,01
13 Niche Market(136) (RHBuckler (in GB)) – HarrySkelton(3) ………..10,01
14 Ambobo (USA)(134) (MBrassil) – APCrowe(T)……………… 9,13
15 Church Island(134) (MHourigan) – LMcNiff(7)(B) ……………. 9,13
16 Emma Jane(133) (WPMullins) – PTownend. 9,12
17 Justpourit(133) (DTHughes) – RLoughran(C)…………… 9,12
18 Pomme Tiepy (FR)(133) (WPMullins) – RWalsh……………………. 9,12
19 Breaking Silence(132) (TJTaaffe) – MPWalsh …………………. 9,11
20 A New Story(130) (MHourigan) – APCawley(3)…………….. 9,10
21 Oulart (GB)(130) (DTHughes) – IJMcCarthy(5) …………… 9,10
22 Poker De Sivola (FR)(130) (FMurphy (inGB)) – KJMercer ……….. 9,10
23 Rebel Chief(130) (MissMMO’Sullivan) – PACarberry………………. 9,10
24 Skip Two(130) (DEFitzgerald) – DJCondon.. 9,10
25 Forest Leaves(129) (EJO’Grady) – TGMRyan ………………… 9,10
26 Newbay Prop(129) (AJMartin) – RCColgan(B) ……………. 9,10
27 Selection Box(127) (CAMcBratney) – MJBolger(3) ……………… 9,10
28 Washington Lad(127) (PAFahy) – CO’Farrell(7)(B) ………… 9,10
29 Bella Mana Mou(126) (MCullen) – SWFlanagan(3) ………… 9,10
30 Operation Houdini(125) (DEFitzgerald) – PTEnright(3)(C)…………. 9,10Notre Pere has been declared but you couldn’t really have a bet here unless we know for certain that he runs. The ground at the moment is Good to Yielding and I’d say they’d probably run him on that but there was no rain around this morning and I don’t know if there’s much rain forecast for the weekend. My own three initial selections would be very dependent on Notre Pere running. I had Arbor Supreme in my head for this race for a long time but his stable companions Pomme Tiepy and Emma Jane have been all the rage in the market and the jockey bookings would suggest he’s the least fancied of Willie’s three. The more I look at One Cool Cookie’s form and pedigree the more I like him for this race. I think he’s a great chance of staying and he’s classy enough to go close if the top weight runs. Paul Carberry’s return is a big positive for Casey Jones’ chances, but again much his hopes will depend on the participation of Notre Pere. I could see Casey Jones and Rare Bob shortening up in the market if Trafford Lad wins the Powers Gold Cup on Sunday so that is something to keep in mind though.
I read on another forum that he was very unlikely to run, so was surprised to see that he had been declared….
IC, adding on to your comments about Arbor Supreme, I think the fact that AP McCoy has also swerved this one in favour of Wichita Lineman is a pretty big sign.
Everyone seems to have swerved him! Cant find a reason as to why though other than his last performance…
very open as usual, but notre pere was very impressive, and if he takes part, he must have a big chance. as for snowy morning, he disappointed me a few times last season, but if hes back on song, he should run a big race.
Notre Petre looks to have an impossible task here if he does run but he’s some horse and could run into a place.
Jonjo send WL here in preference to the Whitbread. He was beaming before Cheltenham and you would expect that race would have taken it’s toll. The horse is very tough and apparantly looks even better than he did at the festival. That doesn’t alter the fact he is one of the riskiest bets in training no matter where he runs.
Garde Champetre missed Aintree for this and with10st 6lbs on his back he will take some beating if within striking distance of the leaders turning for home. A lot of these staying horses are very one paced something that can’t be said about him. The ground is right, the weight is right and lacks nothing in confidence from the saddle.
Rare Bob seemed to improve when sent over 3 miles for the first time and this extra 5 furlongs could bring out even more improvement in him. He ran with credit against some decent horses over much shorter distances in his earlier chases. He has been crying out for a trip and although most of his form is on softer ground he has run well on good to yielding in the past. I think he could be absolutely thrown in at 10lb 5lbs and hopfully the weights wont go up.
Casey Jones will find this easier than he did against Cooldine and Co and with what should be a less hectic pace he should run better here.
1. Rare Bob
2. Garde Champetre
3. Casey Jones
4. Wichita LinemanInterview with Jim Dreaper on RTE there and Notre Pere is highly highly highly unlikely to run tomorrow:
Quotes from Jim Dreaper:
"Crazy thing to do to take a chance"
"It’ll take a fair drop of rain to make it safe for my horse"
"Wouldn’t have run in Gold Cup anyway – ground wasn’t suitable"
"He’s in real good form, he’ll be kept going, he’s got an entry at Ayr next weekend, he’s entered at Sandown (although track is wrong way round) and Guinness (GC) at Punchestown – he’ll run in the first of those that are suitable"
"We’ll come back and have a real crack at it next time"Well, I’m not really sure why Drumconvis is the same price as Casey Jones given that CJ trounced him by 20 lengths at Leopardstown on ground that was not ideal and is now only 6lbs worse off. I don’t think CJ was given a very good ride at Cheltenham after Carberry resigned himself to defeat very early on and then when he decided to push him, he absolutely flew home. Hope he does better this time around.
As someone has already alluded to on here One Cool Cookie is tailor made (or bred) for Nationals. I had some very long range nibbles at him for Aintree but alas he wasn’t given the green light but if he’s not staying on powerfully at the end (could all be too late I know) then I would be very much surprised.
On good ground the one I could see running well at a big price is Breaking Silence. His sire produced a Grand National third and he also has Papillon’s damsire in his line plus his dam did win and place over 3 miles on a number of occasions.
Looks a good race.
I’ve just read that they are supposedly watering tonight and there is still heavy rain forecast; tomorrow could be anything.
I’ve been off colour for the past three days, and have had the runs, so I never completed my trends analysis.
As has been stated here and in a few other places, this race is 3m5f, usually run on Good ground, after the contenders have been running all season over 3m or shorter on Soft ground.
Even if I make money on this race, I am going to avoid it in future years – it is too difficult.
I was thinking of using the Punter’s Prerogative of not having a bet, but a couple of days ago came down on Emma Jane and Vic Venturi. Like others, I was very impressed with Emma Jane coming midfield on her seasonal debut in the Paddy Power Cup. Nothing that has happened since has dampened that enthusiasm, and I would feel a traitor to abandon her.
Also in that race, Vic Venturi put up an improved performance to come second, after having several peak performances at a lower plateau, so I was thinking that maybe there would be further improvement to come as well. So I’ve had a couple of bob on that one as well.
Absolute shambles of a race – it’s 1045 and I still have no idea whether the weights are going to rise or not, and in a race where the stats say you really don’t want to be carrying 11st+.
POKER DE SIVOLA, for me, i was a bit dissapointed with the ride he got at Cheltenham and feel this race would suit him perfectly 25/1 e/w
Top weight confirmed non-runner. I think PDS has a cracking e.w chance and i backed him yesterday at 25s…along with Garde at 16s.
Impossible race to bet in. The easiest play is a lay. Pomme Tieppy gets beaten when she cant get bowl along in front at her own pace and have enough in hand to see off speedier types towards the finish. Plenty to take her on for the lead today, she’s not guaranteed to get the trip and looks better in smaller fields. The Mullins/Walsh combo is overfactored into the price imo. A small lay at 9/1 on BF looks like good business.
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