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Impossible race to bet in. The easiest play is a lay. Pomme Tieppy gets beaten when she cant get bowl along in front at her own pace and have enough in hand to see off speedier types towards the finish. Plenty to take her on for the lead today, she’s not guaranteed to get the trip and looks better in smaller fields. The Mullins/Walsh combo is overfactored into the price imo. A small lay at 9/1 on BF looks like good business.
I shall watch with the intent of laying Pomme in running, hopefully getting
around 4/1 to lay if she can get her head in front Cav!Gosh Moehat, well done. We should go into partnership. I put a fiver on it just because you tipped it. Have broken even I think. Would much have preferred the 2nd or 3rd to win though . . .
What was going on with Wichita Lineman on betfair during the race? It didn’t go out to 1000 until Emma Jane fell a couple of fences later. Was there some doubt as to which McManus horse had fallen at the first? I listened on my sickbed to Timefair Radio, and there was no doubt the WL had gone at the first.
What a strange market that was! Pomme starts the race at 12 to lay
then with a full circuit to run you could back and lay at 4.8 and yet Pomme was never near the front, Church island starts at 60 to back
and with a circuit to run you could still get 36 weird! with 4 fences to jump
Church is 6 to back and Pomme goes 3.6 to back! I ended up not bothering after all that!I don’t know whether to laugh or cry because my 33/1 ante post on Niche Market was 25 pence each way; I’d just worked out that if he was placed I would make a profit of @ 4 pence. I spent 4 months studying the Grand National and made a profit of @ £1.25 and just transferred my ballotted out bet on Niche Market to the Irish version…..
with Notre Pere out weights going up 12 lbs; money going on Bella Mana Mou and Skip Two with rain forecast over the weekend….my bet on Niche Market not looking so good now.
Well done yet again Moe!
Well done Moe, you were right about mullins record in the Irish National Carv, Emma Janes performance, falling at the 3rd fence, was pathetic.
I don’t know whether to laugh or cry because my 33/1 ante post on Niche Market was 25 pence each way; I’d just worked out that if he was placed I would make a profit of @ 4 pence. I spent 4 months studying the Grand National and made a profit of @ £1.25 and just transferred my ballotted out bet on Niche Market to the Irish version…..
The Ante-post Queen! it must be Ashbourne water!
Well, that was a bit of a non event with so many (as is so often the case in this race) failing to get into it. Two fences omitted, carnage, and Selection Box illustrating that every fence doesn’t have to be jumped at Fairyhouse but merely ploughed through.
What happened to One Cool Cookie because I saw him jump (what was) the last but when they crossed the line I couldn’t see him? He was the only one I could see that made progress from a long way back only then to disappear.
I won’t be backing the winner for Aintree next year that’s for certain (Presenting’s are accumulating an appalling record over four miles – yet to have a winner) but I would love to see Church Island take his chance in it.
Gerald; I just need Sea Diva to place in the Scottish National next week; put that bet on with the money I got back from Companero withdrawing from the Midlands..this is like an ante post version of Diceman! They’ll be quaking in their boots when I get to Market Rasen tomorrow……
Oh dear, both Wichita Lineman and Drumconvis gone.
KC, would you be wanting Church Island to run at Aintree, just so that you could oppose it? Having Kalaglow as a damsire would go against the statistic I discovered a couple of months ago, that 15 of the past 16 winners comply with.
Kalaglow is an interesting influence for me. He was in two of the first four home today and is himself sire of Hot Weld’s sire, Weld, (a winner twice and placed once over four miles) so it would take quite a lot to put me off from a stat angle I have to say.
——–edit———–
Plus Church Islands sire is by Busted – who has produced three stallions responsible for Grand National winners. Nice! 1991, 1996 and 2007.
Great minds – I put £2 on Sea Diva at lunchtime, but the 75 disappeared as I was putting it on, so I’ve left £2 @ 75 for someone to accept, and have put another £2 on at 65.
Thankfully, I’ve now done all my Scottish National bets, as I’m far clearer about it than the Irish National, and consequently have only bet 1/3 the amount.
I can now relax and recuperate for a week, and then have a go at the bet365 from next Monday.
KC; what actually happened at the last fence?
One Cool Cookie all but jumped onto a stricken horse that had only just got to it’s feet..it was horrible to watch [as was most of the race, unfortunately].
Have just checked, and I actually made a loss of £18.67 on the race, but I’m actually pleased/relieved with that, considering how much I bet on the race without having a clear idea of what the winner would be. I’m pleased from a kudos point of view that I mentioned both Church Island and A New Story in first posting, and they would both have been substantial winners for me.
I’m sure I’ve read somewhere on betfair that when there is an Ante-post market on a race, and a day-of-the-race market, that they add the two together before making the commission charge, but that doesn’t seem to be the case . . .
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