Post Trial Derby Thoughts?

[davidjohnson]

Also Frozen Fire got himself pretty warm by the start of the Dante. It would be anyone’s guess how well he’d handle the preliminaries at Epsom which will be far more drawn out than at York.

[Aidan]

Kingdom Of Naples will not be running on Sunday.

As for Frozen Fire, he was having his first run of the season, Tartan Bearer already had a run. FF wouldn’t be the first Ballydoyle to improve significantly for a run. Weither that’s good enough to win a Derby I do not know.

[scallywag76]

Based on my own analysis, the post-Guineas Derby trials this year have produced the following time ratings (expressed on a 0-140 scale) for the respective winners:

Chester Vase – Doctor Fremantle 115

Dee Stakes – Tajaweed 107

Dante Stakes – Tartan Bearer 104

Derrinstown Stud Stakes – Casual Conquest 101

Lingfield Derby Trial – Allesandro Volta 93

Additional to the above, Henrythenavigator posted a figure of 113 in the 2,000, whilst the best winning figures for New Approach and Ibn Khaldun last year were 123 & 118 respectively.

I don’t have a rating for Curtain Call’s win this year but he recorded 103 behind Ibn Khaldun at Doncaster last season, whilst the form of his Beresford Stakes win has not really stood up to scrutiny.

Doctor Fremantle’s rating stands up well to those of last year for Authorized & Soldier of Fortune in their warm-up races and although, on the face of it, further improvement is required to measure up to a Derby-winning standard, who’s to say that he won’t find it. I’m slightly concerned that his seasonal debut came in a handicap but if supplemented he will be going into the race with every chance. Anyone wish to lay me 20/1 with a run?

Putting last year’s figures to one-side, the rest of the performances are much of a muchness – Tartan Bearer needs to find significant improvement and this could just be a bridge too far.

I notice that Kingdom of Naples, yet to see a racecourse this year, has been given a positive mention by some but a couple of points for discussion here:

1. There’s quite a bit of speed on the dam’s side of his pedigree – cause for concern perhaps?
2. He may have won impressively at Navan last year but those finishing closest to him have failed to frank the form so far – 2nd horse beaten in an AW maiden this year, 3rd beaten twice since, ditto for the 4th.

[LetsGetRacing]

Deadly Silence didn’t do Tartan Bearer’s Leicester form any harm in hacking up at Southwell this afternoon, beating a fairly decent looking maiden field without any fuss whatsoever (if anything he was inconvenienced by the slow pace).

I’ve got Connection at 66/1 now as my long-price option, but Frozen Fire is beginning to look more and more attractive.

[davidjohnson]

Surely Tartan Bearer’s Leicester form now is completely irrelevant. He must have shown form bordering on 2 stone better in the Dante.

[Running Rein]

interesting post scally’
I think Alessabdro Volta can run a fair bit faster than the slow Lingfield effort and he would be my pick if he gets the nod for Epsom.

[Author]

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