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What are everyones thoughts after the derby trials?
Obviously Casual Conquest is the most impressive trial winner we have seen, and with that run only being his second start he is a bit of an unknown quantity but looks top drawer, even in advance of him being supplemented the bookies look to have him well and trully covered.
Curtain Call, was a very good 2yo and has avoided his trial at lingfield due to the ground but still won his race at leicester and looks to be being handled with kid gloves to keep him right.
Kingdom Of Naples has also avoided his trial in the dante (possibly due to the ground also) but we dont know why so his run in the gallinule next week will no doubt answer a few questions. There is also the fairway stakes which has thrown up a leger winner (who ran a very good race from the front at epsom) and a breeders cup turf winner (who avoided epsom) in the last two years, It may well prove to be a good enough trial yet.
Hard to know what to make of the dante form as twice over clearly failed to impress and emptied quite easily, but the winner and runner up were the lowest rated in the field (and not heavily campaigned) are entitled to be open to plenty of improvement, despite not being seperated by much on the day.
Alessandro Volta and King Of Rome at Lingfield werent too bad, and where I personally think King Of Rome may have prevailed with a better run and Murtagh in the saddle, neither really looked hugely impressive that day.
Dr Freemantle won nicely enough in the chester vase, and would have more to give if supplemented, as would Tajaweed but neither of chesters derby trials really looked like great derby form IMO.
Ibn Khaldun won one of the best trials fairly easy last year, and has since been beaten easily enough in the guineas, when you bear in mind that he was only 4-1 over the winter and hasnt really done a great deal wrong in a derby context, his price of 25-1 would look a bit silly really for an impressive enough racing post trophy winner, in a derby where the trials have largely not been that great.
One thing which may prove significant is that all the bigger derby trials in britain have been run on faster conditions than they normally would. This may have lead to the races not being won in as clear cut fashion as usual and so some of those from the trials may have a great deal of improvement on good ground should epsom come up that way. There is also the aspect that running trials on faster ssurface may have taken a bit out of some of them, as plenty of horses in the other races have been badly injured over the trial period. Time will tell on that front…
Looks very open this year and I’m unsure who I will back at this stage. Cumani knows how to win the Derby with a horse having his first run of the season so Curtain Call must have every chance.
I thought that Twice Over failed to stay in the Dante but it has now been stated that his blood count was wrong so there may have been a valid excuse.
The winner of the Dante looks sure to stay the Derby trip and is lightly raced so I’m leaning towards betting on him but I’ll wait until the day as any rain will obviously effect the chances.
Pete
excuse my ignorance about this but how many horses in recent years that have been supplemented for the classics have actually gone on to win?
Curtain Call has run this season, SC, beating Drill Sergeant and Bold Choice in a fairly non-descript event at Nottingham. He’s certainly bred to improve for the step-up in trip, and he looks to have returned as well as ever, but I wonder if others might just have too much speed for him on ground that will likely be good at the very worst.
Casual Conquest was impressive, there can be no denying that, but he’s only (realistically) beaten mid-90s horses in a similar fashion to Curtain Call. One thing he does have is significant potential for improvement, having only seen a racecourse twice, but judging that accurately is difficult. Through Moiqen you would have to think that connections know exactly how good he is compared to Famous Name, so the only question is will he be supplemented?
Of the other half-dozen at the head of the market only Frozen Fire interests me. I think he came out of the Dante with plenty of credit, despite a slightly awkward head carriage, and I’d fancy him to turn the tables on Tartan Bearer quite comfortably (and prove best of the Coolmore platoon).
Frozen Fire is the only horse I have backed to date.
Outside of the leading sextet there don’t appear to be many challengers, but I think I will have a little each-way on Willie Haggas’s Collection at 66/1. He won incredibly well at York, enduring trouble-in-running and a moderate pace to power clear under hands and heels (he made up an astonishing amount of ground in the closing stages). He ran from a mark of only 80 last week, but is clearly a good deal better than that and could surprise upped in trip.
I don’t think any of the recently supplemented horses have done much, but Casual Conquest ought to run IMO as he has the right speed/stamina in his breeding and what he did at Leopardstown was extremely good.
To me his breeding mix is similar to Kris Kin.I like Curtain Call, I think he will run well, IMO he has a similar speed/stamina mix to High Chaparral.
Tartan Bearer should have no problem with the distance, his brother came 2nd and won the King George at Ascot. I know that it is a bit late to be saying this but I thought that Twice Over would not win the Dante as IMO he is an 8-10f horse and the Dante is 88yds further than 10f. On the day I backed Frozen Fire, and didn’t back Tartan Bearer !
Tajaaweed should have no problem with the distance, and Alessandro Volta will have no problem with the distance, but he did seem to have a lot of problems with the downhill run and the bend at Lingfield, but if he can be kept in control at Epsom, who knows?
Its quite open this year.
Kris Kin was a suplemenatary having been entered as a yearling but taken out early in the season of his 3yo campaign.
suplemenatary ?
Mr Davidjohnson, Have you been drinking more wine than me this afternoon !!
Yes I forgot about Kris Kin .
Has someone put up the dosage for this race anywhere so I can delve a bit deeper
have fun
Believe it or nor I’m actually sober. Just terrible for not actually reading what I type.
I don’t think any Trial winners have been impressive if you are taking into account whom they beat. It’s really down to the visual standout and Casual Conquest was nothing short of that.
Anything out of the 2,000 Guineas?
I think it’s safe to say this season’s Derby winner didn’t run in the guineas.
I wasn’t very impressed by Curtain call the other two were under severe pressure and although he has gone past them esily he didn’t pick up like a Derby horse IMO.
Tartan Bearer ? the Epsom Derby ? Pitman’s more likely. Very bad Dante IMO and nothing from that race will be winning
Watcing Casual Conquest winning ws much more like the thing. The 3rd horse is cantering turning for home and is just about to be challenged by the 2nd. CC is being pushed to get into the race and running quite green.
The 2nd and 3rd are just starting to really race when Caual Conquest gets the message and takes off like a rocket…..I’m pretty sure "What the hell" went through the mind of the jockey on the 3rd who must have been counting his percentage just before CC went past him like he was a tree. he did tighten up a little in the last 1/2 furlong but that is only to be expected from an inexperienced horse.
I thik he is what Derby winners are made of and he has obviously come on an absolute ton since last season. He will have benefitted greatly for that run and looks the type to handleTattenham Corner…his amazing turn of foot sets him above anything I have seen this season.
I wont be looking any further and 4/1 is a very big price IMO.
You just need to hope that he has matured enough from Leopardstown to Epsom – as I am always a little unsure about those inexperienced types swinging downhill past Tattenham Corner.
This is really where a superior jockey would be of the greatest effect, no?
Would need to see Thewayyouare’s Poulains performance again, but he would be a definite to bypass Epsom and head for Chantilly. Same for Tamayuz but he has his own relaxing issues to overcome first.
As far as the "Blues" are concerned – Ballydoyle must train their staying two and three year olds with one goal of the Epsom Classics. If the expected one doesn’t step up on the day, another couple probably will. A horse like Frozen Fire could really give the Derby a shake but I think Kingdom Of Naples should become the Coolmore protagonist with a basic cleaning up of the Gallinule this week.
Godolphin don’t win these Classics and I think both of Rio De La Plata and Ibn Khaldun have too much brilliance to stay. McCartney and Campanologist were disappointing. Sheikh Mo will have other races and plans in mind. Keep them reserved for Royal Ascot is my tip.
A couple of speculative bets will do on the Ballydoyle horses. The circa 16-1 about Kingdom Of Naples MUST be wound in to half that quote or less after the Gallinule. Besides Casual Conquest, the others really don’t stand a chance.
I felt quite underwhelmed by the Dante too. Professional performances rather than sparkling
Just cant weigh this race up at all this year… Pretty ordinary looking bunch really and this makes the absense of New Approach seem stranger by the day
Coolmore have a big influence on the race should they run their usual half dozen because they very often try to control the pace. It may depend on whether their first choice is a speed horse or an out and out stayer.
Personally would be against Casual Conquest. He didn’t travel at all in the Leopardstown race- perhaps through greenness, but if he repeats that at Epsom he can’t win. Haven’t seen all the trials yet but feel there must be a bet lurking somewhere if he’s favourite. Frozen Fire looked the one from the Dante for me, again looking very green but more so when he was first asked to quicken- he’ll know more next time. Looks like a Kris Kin year to me where something comes out of the woodwork to win…
You should have it covered with the seven you’ve backed Bulwark!Beware mistaking greeness with temperament with these Montjeus. Frozen Fire barely picked the bridle up as a juvenile for what I took to be be greeness, but his head carriage and the way he hung suggests to me he has his own ideas. I think he may be more of a Leger type too looking at his pedigree. On fastish ground, I’d be disappointed if something didn’t have a bit too much toe for him and I see no reason for him to reverse the Dante form.
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