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Pointers-November

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  • #43331
    TROTTER
    Member
    • Total Posts 67

    DO YOU REMEMBER ME REPLYING TO YOUR THREAD ON 29 SEPT AND 6 OCT WITH MY SYSTEM WITH A70% STRIKE RATE THERE HAVE BEEN 8 BETS SINCE 6 WNRS 2 LOST NAMES FOLLOW ASHTON VALE W1/4 LOVE EVERLASTING W8/11 IL CAPITANO W2/5 BEAUCHAMP PILOT LOST FIORI LOST ZAMATT W10/11 FAILED TO HIT 5/4 SAITENSOHN EV

    #43332
    kersly
    Member
    • Total Posts 949

    Hi Trotter,<br>I do remember you replying Ill have to go back and remind myself of what was said.You seem to be doing well,patience is a virtue that is an excellent strike rate in a bit of a rush at the moment Ill be looking later

    Sat 30th Nov<br>Non Hcp Flat(AW)<br>8.00 Wolvs-Resplendently-(6)13 run..f/c 15/8…Lost<br>Nat Hunt Non Hcp<br>1.50 Newc-Royal Emperor(6)6 run…f/c 7/4……..Lost<br>2.55 Newc-Marble Arch(7)6 run..f/c 6/4…………..Lost<br>12.25 Hayd-Governor Daniel(7)6 run…f/c 1/1…..Lost<br>1.40 Leic-Benrajah(5)5 run..f/c 10/11……………..Lost

    What a bad day to end the month.<br>____________________________________________<br>Hcp Flat-reference only<br>9.30-Bella Beguine<br>Nat Hunt Hcp<br>3.40 Newb-Mister McGoldrick……………….Lost<br>2.10 Leic-Sir Toby………………………………Won 2/1<br>2.45 Leic-Channahrlie………………………..lost

    kersly

    (Edited by kersly at 9:15 pm on Nov. 30, 2002)

    #43333
    MrE
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2149

    Hi Kers… on my modification I woulda bet only 2 today so it wasn’t too painful for me…. November I woulda had 27 winners from 50 bets. I’m in the middle of checking Octobers and that too looks promising. Before you kick out the odds on shots, which the majority are a waste of time, it may be prudent to keep the close to evens shots in because you may be able to get evens or better if you shop around or take early prices. Dunno for sure cos I’m still checking, but it seems a pity to turn away the chance to get evens. I would suggest that in checking the past results, we keep the selections in that the SP was 10/11… 5/6… 4/5… cos evens was probably available at some time….. just a thought, but hopefully I’ll have a better idea by tomorrow night…… :biggrin:

    MrE

    #43334
    kersly
    Member
    • Total Posts 949

    Here is a breakdown of November results<br>NON Handicap Races only<br>Flat Non HCp

    Selections……………………………………22<br>Wins…………………………………………..10<br>Staked………………………………………..22.00<br>Returned……………………………………..32.22<br>Profit/Loss……………………………………(+10.22)<br>_____________________________________________<br>Nat Hunt Non Hcp

    Selections……………………………………..52<br>Wins……………………………………………..20<br>Staked…………………………………………..52.00<br>Returned……………………………………….57.06<br>Profit/Loss……………………………………..(+5.06)

    Combined Profit………………………………+15.28<br>_____________________________________________<br>Handicap races are ignored

    kersly

    #43335
    dave jay
    Member
    • Total Posts 3386

    Hi Kersly,<br>I’ve been going through your past results and completed September and October (120+) so I’m ready for analysis. I don’t want to just post it up here because there are endless permutations of the data. If you want to frame a few questions I will see what it comes up with. I think you’re in for a few pleasant suprises.<br>It may be a good idea to start a new thread to keep it all separate.

    #43336
    MrE
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2149

    Jeeeez Kers, you move about a bit, you must spend ages on the ‘puter writing all the stuff on the boards, I’ve just bumped into you on 3 of ’em….. hehehe….. getting plenty of advise too I notice……  :biggrin: <br>OK, I’ve been through October (the worst month) and used a bit of common sense and form study. I came out the other end with a profit of 22pts from a total outlay of 61pts…. November proved even better with a profit of 39pts from a 50pt outlay….. I did not use level stakes, I very rarely do these days cos I wanna win money and although level stakes may be safe they’re also slow, anyhow, I digress. Using your results I kicked out all the odds on selections with the exception of the ones that had the SP returns of 10/11… 5/6… 4/5… and calculated those at evens because I would have thought that evens would have been available sometime during the betting. This isn’t really important cos it only makes a couple of points difference….. If you want level stake comparisons, they are….<br>October…   Bets = 40… Winners = 16…   L/S =   +  7pts.<br>November.  Bets = 45..  Winners = 17…  L/S =   + 34pts.<br>LLS (Oct)… 6 (Twice)..      LWS…  3 (Twice)…<br>LLS (Nov)… 5 (Once)..      LWS…  4 (Once)….<br>Ok, my style of betting doesnt suit everybody (see Matrons thread of "Favourites" ) but I’m happy with it and if it aint broke dont fix it……. I dont think there’s a lot more you can filter out Kers, if you apply too many filters you’ll end up with no bets. The system looks strong mate, you just need to prove it over time now and there’s no reason why you cant enjoy beting ’em whilst your watching…….. congratulations K, I think you’ve got yourself a good "consensus" system here…..<br>:smiley: :smiley:

    MrE

    #43337
    MrE
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2149

    Dave…. sorry mate, I missed your post. It musta come in while I was still writing mine….. I still type with one finger, sometimes, when I’m feeling really adventurous, I start to use two fingers….. :biggrin:  missus says I’m getting really good at giving you lot on here the two fingers…..  :smiley: :smiley:

    MrE

    #43338
    dave jay
    Member
    • Total Posts 3386

    Hey MrE, no problem, if Kersly decides to post a new thread or pursue this line of analysis to the n(th) degree we could compare our selection methodology and staking plan systems.

    #43339
    dave jay
    Member
    • Total Posts 3386

    Analysis for September October Results.

    Total Runners = 125<br>Non Runners = 6<br>Percentages based on 125 – 6 = 119

    Abbreviations:<br>SR = Strike Rate<br>LSP = Level Stakes Profit<br>LPLR = Longest Predicted Losing Run<br>NS = Number of Selections from total system selections.

    All Results<br>NS = 119<br>SR = 50%<br>LSP = -0.34%<br>LPLR = 10

    Scenario One<br>SP is less than evens<br>NS = 50/119 = 42%<br>SR = 74%<br>LSP = +7.18%<br>LPLR = 5

    Scenario Two<br>SP is evens or more<br>NS = 63/119 = 53%<br>SR = 31.75%<br>LSP = -6.30%<br>LPLR = 14

    Scenario Three<br>SP is evens or more.<br>Omit any race with less than 5 runners.<br>NS = 52/119 = 43.7%<br>SR = 34.62%<br>LSP = +5.11%<br>LPLR = 13

    Scenario Four<br>SP is evens or more.<br>Delete any race with less than 9 runners.<br>NS = 35/119 = 29.4%<br>SR = 31.43%<br>LSP = +12.3%<br>LPLR = 14

    Scenario Five<br>SP is 6/4 or more.<br>Delete any race with less than 9 runners.<br>NS = 27/119 = 22.6%<br>SR = 29.63%<br>LSP = +21.59%<br>LPLR = 14

    I have not done November or December yet. The likely price movements on this system cannot be calculated because I don’t have the F-SP figures.

    I’ll amend this post when I have more data done, and add any other scenarios you can come up with, with the limited amount of data I have. It is worth noting that the picture will become much clearer when around 600 – 700 results are collected, this will mean that the NS(x) will be about 100 in each scenario.

    Comments please!<br>

    #43340
    kersly
    Member
    • Total Posts 949

    Hi Dave,<br>First of all thanks for the analysis,one point that immeadiately springs to mind is that supporting anything Evens or below is going to be a hard slog.There doesnt appear to be a large increase in the predicated LPLR as the prices increase.Surprisingly the larger the field and higher the SP gives better LSP.<br>Two assumptions..(a) would it may be advisable to ignore all selections f/c below 1/1 and only use fields of 9+…(b)would it be advisable to only use selections quoted at 6/4+ in fields of 9+.<br>It will be very interesting to note Novs analysis..you have already got me thinking about selecting horses quoted at less than Evens.Appreciate the effort Dave hopefully with a bit of fine tuning may be able to improve the overall situation.Struggling for winners so far this month but remove the f/c odds on and the damage is less.Hopefully a few winners are on the way.

    Cheers-kersly

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