Pointers-November

[MrE]

Dave…. sorry mate, I missed your post. It musta come in while I was still writing mine….. I still type with one finger, sometimes, when I’m feeling really adventurous, I start to use two fingers….. :biggrin:  missus says I’m getting really good at giving you lot on here the two fingers…..  :smiley: :smiley:

MrE

[dave jay]

Hey MrE, no problem, if Kersly decides to post a new thread or pursue this line of analysis to the n(th) degree we could compare our selection methodology and staking plan systems.

[dave jay]

Analysis for September October Results.

Total Runners = 125<br>Non Runners = 6<br>Percentages based on 125 – 6 = 119

Abbreviations:<br>SR = Strike Rate<br>LSP = Level Stakes Profit<br>LPLR = Longest Predicted Losing Run<br>NS = Number of Selections from total system selections.

All Results<br>NS = 119<br>SR = 50%<br>LSP = -0.34%<br>LPLR = 10

Scenario One<br>SP is less than evens<br>NS = 50/119 = 42%<br>SR = 74%<br>LSP = +7.18%<br>LPLR = 5

Scenario Two<br>SP is evens or more<br>NS = 63/119 = 53%<br>SR = 31.75%<br>LSP = -6.30%<br>LPLR = 14

Scenario Three<br>SP is evens or more.<br>Omit any race with less than 5 runners.<br>NS = 52/119 = 43.7%<br>SR = 34.62%<br>LSP = +5.11%<br>LPLR = 13

Scenario Four<br>SP is evens or more.<br>Delete any race with less than 9 runners.<br>NS = 35/119 = 29.4%<br>SR = 31.43%<br>LSP = +12.3%<br>LPLR = 14

Scenario Five<br>SP is 6/4 or more.<br>Delete any race with less than 9 runners.<br>NS = 27/119 = 22.6%<br>SR = 29.63%<br>LSP = +21.59%<br>LPLR = 14

I have not done November or December yet. The likely price movements on this system cannot be calculated because I don’t have the F-SP figures.

I’ll amend this post when I have more data done, and add any other scenarios you can come up with, with the limited amount of data I have. It is worth noting that the picture will become much clearer when around 600 – 700 results are collected, this will mean that the NS(x) will be about 100 in each scenario.

Comments please!<br>

[kersly]

Hi Dave,<br>First of all thanks for the analysis,one point that immeadiately springs to mind is that supporting anything Evens or below is going to be a hard slog.There doesnt appear to be a large increase in the predicated LPLR as the prices increase.Surprisingly the larger the field and higher the SP gives better LSP.<br>Two assumptions..(a) would it may be advisable to ignore all selections f/c below 1/1 and only use fields of 9+…(b)would it be advisable to only use selections quoted at 6/4+ in fields of 9+.<br>It will be very interesting to note Novs analysis..you have already got me thinking about selecting horses quoted at less than Evens.Appreciate the effort Dave hopefully with a bit of fine tuning may be able to improve the overall situation.Struggling for winners so far this month but remove the f/c odds on and the damage is less.Hopefully a few winners are on the way.

Cheers-kersly

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