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Hi Kersly and MrE,<br>I have been watching this debate with interest and may be able to assist.<br>I have written a program for assessing systems which would analyse all of the factors debated. If you wish I can run your system through it.
For the analysis to work I would need the following data:<br>1. Date<br>2. Race<br>3. Selection<br>4. No. of runners in race<br>5. SP<br>6. F-SP (optional)<br>7. Result<br>For example:<br>Date   Race  Selection  No. Run   SP   F-SP   Result<br>23/11  2.30     1       15    3/1   4/1     L<br>       3.00     2        8     7/1   9/1    L<br>24/11  1.00     3        5     2/1   6/4   W2/1 ÂÂÂ
To get a true picture a minimum of 100 races will be required, I normally build this over a period of time. I also have a program which will calculate the optimum staking plan against a series of results, this will also calculate your typical longest losing run. ÂÂÂ
At your disposal.   ÂÂÂ
Hi DJ and Kersly, seems like we got us summat to get our teeth into…<br>Kersly…. I dunno if your correct in casting out the longer odds selections, after all, its those sort of prices were looking for. At the end of the day only you can know that cos you have all results to hand. I think that now may be the time to take DJ up on his kind offer, this could save you time and put you straight on any doubts that you may have. You can only make so many revisions before you start to lose the original and, judging by your results, you must be almost there. The SR is pretty good and the longest losing sequence (9 in Oct and 5 in Nov) is far from frightening, in fact, if you get rid of all those odds on shots, I cant see you suffering because of it. If DJ can also sort out the optimum staking plan (on this I have my doubts… sorry DJ), you have yourself a possible hit I think…… :biggrin:
DJ…. nice to meet you my friend and thanks for your offer. This is down to Kersly though, I’ve only just come back on the board after a long lay off and I aint going to impose on members that dont know me. I stick my oar into Matron or Daz’s boat cos they know me, but to continually stick my face into someone elses thread, especially if I’m taking the pee (which I’m prone to do…. hehehe), this would probably result in me getting my arse kicked…. :biggrin: :biggrin: …. not that I care, but you gotta be polite aintcha…… so its down to K wether he wants to go further, I hope he does cos this is looking promising. I must admit though, I’m looking forward to what staking that you may come up with, I just love playing around with staking plans, but there’s some crap around….. good call Dave, and thanks, if were quick we might even be able to get an extra couple of bottles in for the festive season…:biggrin: …. good thread this aint it…..
MrE
Thursday 28th Nov<br>Nat Hunt Non Hcp <br>2.35 Uttox-Claymore(6)..f/c 9/2……………..7 run…Won 5/1<br>1.50 Carlisle-Harrovian(5)..f/c 11/4…………9 run..Lost-Unp<br>12.35 Taunton-Spring Dawn(7)..f/c 11/4….14 run..Lost-2nd 5/1<br>1.05 Taunton-Gin Palace(7)..f/c 5/4…………14 run..Lost-2nd 1/2
A busy day it could help hopefully to the 20+ points for Nov..;) Famous last words. <br>_____________________________________________<br>Nat Hunt Hcp-reference only<br>2.45 Carlisle-Nemisto(5)..f/c 9/2…Lost-2nd 0/30
Hi Dave,Mr E,<br>Im afraid I dont have all the parameters required for your kind offer of results analysis.Im missing number of runners and f/c SP.<br>Ive tended to look for patterns in the type of races and note if a 4/5/6/7 qualifier made any difference,also was Postdata important.I could research the info required or alternatively start to record the required info each day from now on.It may be better to do that as then the f//c SP could also be recorded.Ill do the last few days over the weekend as I still have RPs.<br>Your interest is appreciated.
kersly <br>
(Edited by kersly at 8:43 pm on Nov. 28, 2002)
No problem Kersly,<br>I’ve just printed off September, October and November threads. I’ll work through the results and see what I can come up with, it seems only fair, as you are putting up the system.<br>I hope you don’t mind?
Hi Kers, I just had another read on the other board. Is it correct that your selections differ between the Racing Post "Copy" and the Racing Post "Online"……
MrE
Hi Mr E,<br>Selections are worked out from the paper version of the RP.After discussions with other posters there is obviously a discrepancy between "paper RP" and "online RP".I havent a clue why but it has been pointed out a few times.The online version seems to leave out certain pieces of information,it makes the idea unworkable.I only use the paper version. I notice there was an odds on loser today Mr E,it was f/c at 5/4 but shortened to 1/2 the only way to have eliminated that was to have access to the live market or place the bet with a local bookie and stipulate "odds on-no bet".That may be a way forward.Just hope the idea can hold its own over the last 2 days of Nov,then an analysis.Thank goodness for Claymore,didnt it look impressive.
Hi Dave,<br>Ill look forward to your findings.there is always room for improvement.Lets see if further improvements can be made. <br>Cheers-kersly
(Edited by kersly at 12:39 am on Nov. 29, 2002)<br>
(Edited by kersly at 12:47 am on Nov. 29, 2002)
Friday 29th Nov<br>Flat Non Hcp(AW)<br>12.30 Wolvs-Magenta Rising(6 inc p/d no adj TS)1m.5f 2-y-o F Mdn St..f/c 7/4…12 run…..Won 7/4
Nat Hunt Non Hcp<br>1.20 Newb-Saitensohn(7)2m5f C Nov H…f/c 6/4…10 run….Won 1/1<br>_____________________________________________<br>Flat Hcp-reference only<br>2.05 Wolvs-King Revo(5)…..Lost<br>Nat Hunt Hcp<br>12.45 Bangor-Bold Hunter(6)…Lost(another faller that looked like winning)
kersly<br>
(Edited by kersly at 4:03 pm on Nov. 29, 2002)
Hi Kers… it cant be helped if one or two slip through the net, it shouldn’t worry us too much. Dont be in too much of a hurry to revamp, I think your pretty close. I studied all of Novembers selections but applied my own criteria, these are not further filters, just a sensible application of form. Remember, this is from your system selections and your results so if you’ve dropped a goolie anywhere, the whole lots in the scrap bin, but so far for November only, I have 25 winners from 46 selections… a level stake profit of 27 points….
MrE
Kers, I dunno, I must be getting thick in my old age (shut yer face Matron….:biggrin: ), but in explaining your system to Dave (Page 1), you said that each selection must have 3 outa 4 votes. Where d’ya get the 4 from, you have ADJUSTED, LATEST and BEST, tis only 3, where’s the fourth….. todays bet Saitensohn you rate at 7, I can only find 6….. hehehe…. perhaps the beads have fallen off my abacus…… also checked with the RP Online for todays and they aint even close, have they always been this far out…… Magenta Rising they have as Top Rated on both Postmark and Topspeed Adjusted but there 2nd on both in the Latest figures and third rated on both in the Best figures…. a terrible discrepancy if anyone is using RP Online….. anyway, back to the rules, where does the fourth point for each selection come from, I’ll have to read back now and see if I can find it…… :biggrin: <br>Congratulations on a nice double today… 7/4 and 1/1…. well done……
MrE
Hi Mr E,<br>A horse can record a figure of 4-5-6 or 7 to qualify.I am monitoring these to see if a 4 selection has a lower strike rate than any other.In fact I can compare where the winners are coming from be it 4-5-6-7.I need to know does Postdata have an influence etc,etc.All qualify
If a horse has 7 it has the top rating in "latest" "best" and"adjusted" in both PM and TS plus Postdata.
If a horse qualifies with 6 any combination of PM/TS/PD
If a horse qualifies on 5 it again can have any combination of PM/TS/PD
If a horse qualifies on 4 it has top rated "latest and "adjusted" in both PM and TS<br>It can also qualify on 4 if it has all three in PM or TS plus the "best" figure in the other.(very rare)
The most important figures are the "latest and "adjusted" in PM and TS.
However it qualifies- it must not be bettered by any other rating.It still qualifies if ratings are equal.
You add the qualifying ratings together eg Today-<br>1.20 Newb-Saitensohn-top rated "latest" "best" and "adjusted" in both PM and TS hence 6 positives plus it was the Postdata selection making it a 7 selection
12.30 Wolvs-Magenta Rising-was top rated "latest" "best" and "adjusted" by Postmark(3)It was only top rated "latest" and "best"(2) by Topspeed it was also Postdata(1) giving a total of (6)
Note an exception<br>As long as the selection is top rated in" latest" and "adjusted" PM and TS areas it qualifies,despite what the "best" figure may be.
Not sure I think Ive confused myself.:o <br>Hope this makes sense.
kersly
Duh!!!…. what a freaking dipstick I turned out to be…. :biggrin: … I’d forgot all about Postdata…. I’ve just nipped out to buy a RP paper and I just cannot believe that the "Online" version is so far out. So, a warning to others, if your following this and you only use RP Online, forget it, just get your tips from Kersly.
MrE
DO YOU REMEMBER ME REPLYING TO YOUR THREAD ON 29 SEPT AND 6 OCT WITH MY SYSTEM WITH A70% STRIKE RATE THERE HAVE BEEN 8 BETS SINCE 6 WNRS 2 LOST NAMES FOLLOW ASHTON VALE W1/4 LOVE EVERLASTING W8/11 IL CAPITANO W2/5 BEAUCHAMP PILOT LOST FIORI LOST ZAMATT W10/11 FAILED TO HIT 5/4 SAITENSOHN EV
Hi Trotter,<br>I do remember you replying Ill have to go back and remind myself of what was said.You seem to be doing well,patience is a virtue that is an excellent strike rate in a bit of a rush at the moment Ill be looking later
Sat 30th Nov<br>Non Hcp Flat(AW)<br>8.00 Wolvs-Resplendently-(6)13 run..f/c 15/8…Lost<br>Nat Hunt Non Hcp<br>1.50 Newc-Royal Emperor(6)6 run…f/c 7/4……..Lost<br>2.55 Newc-Marble Arch(7)6 run..f/c 6/4…………..Lost<br>12.25 Hayd-Governor Daniel(7)6 run…f/c 1/1…..Lost<br>1.40 Leic-Benrajah(5)5 run..f/c 10/11……………..Lost
What a bad day to end the month.<br>____________________________________________<br>Hcp Flat-reference only<br>9.30-Bella Beguine<br>Nat Hunt Hcp<br>3.40 Newb-Mister McGoldrick……………….Lost<br>2.10 Leic-Sir Toby………………………………Won 2/1<br>2.45 Leic-Channahrlie………………………..lost
kersly
(Edited by kersly at 9:15 pm on Nov. 30, 2002)
Hi Kers… on my modification I woulda bet only 2 today so it wasn’t too painful for me…. November I woulda had 27 winners from 50 bets. I’m in the middle of checking Octobers and that too looks promising. Before you kick out the odds on shots, which the majority are a waste of time, it may be prudent to keep the close to evens shots in because you may be able to get evens or better if you shop around or take early prices. Dunno for sure cos I’m still checking, but it seems a pity to turn away the chance to get evens. I would suggest that in checking the past results, we keep the selections in that the SP was 10/11… 5/6… 4/5… cos evens was probably available at some time….. just a thought, but hopefully I’ll have a better idea by tomorrow night…… :biggrin:
MrE
Here is a breakdown of November results<br>NON Handicap Races only<br>Flat Non HCp
Selections……………………………………22<br>Wins…………………………………………..10<br>Staked………………………………………..22.00<br>Returned……………………………………..32.22<br>Profit/Loss……………………………………(+10.22)<br>_____________________________________________<br>Nat Hunt Non Hcp
Selections……………………………………..52<br>Wins……………………………………………..20<br>Staked…………………………………………..52.00<br>Returned……………………………………….57.06<br>Profit/Loss……………………………………..(+5.06)
Combined Profit………………………………+15.28<br>_____________________________________________<br>Handicap races are ignored
kersly
Hi Kersly,<br>I’ve been going through your past results and completed September and October (120+) so I’m ready for analysis. I don’t want to just post it up here because there are endless permutations of the data. If you want to frame a few questions I will see what it comes up with. I think you’re in for a few pleasant suprises.<br>It may be a good idea to start a new thread to keep it all separate.
Jeeeez Kers, you move about a bit, you must spend ages on the ‘puter writing all the stuff on the boards, I’ve just bumped into you on 3 of ’em….. hehehe….. getting plenty of advise too I notice……  :biggrin: <br>OK, I’ve been through October (the worst month) and used a bit of common sense and form study. I came out the other end with a profit of 22pts from a total outlay of 61pts…. November proved even better with a profit of 39pts from a 50pt outlay….. I did not use level stakes, I very rarely do these days cos I wanna win money and although level stakes may be safe they’re also slow, anyhow, I digress. Using your results I kicked out all the odds on selections with the exception of the ones that had the SP returns of 10/11… 5/6… 4/5… and calculated those at evens because I would have thought that evens would have been available sometime during the betting. This isn’t really important cos it only makes a couple of points difference….. If you want level stake comparisons, they are….<br>October…  Bets = 40… Winners = 16…  L/S =  +  7pts.<br>November.  Bets = 45..  Winners = 17…  L/S =  + 34pts.<br>LLS (Oct)… 6 (Twice)..    LWS…  3 (Twice)…<br>LLS (Nov)… 5 (Once)..    LWS…  4 (Once)….<br>Ok, my style of betting doesnt suit everybody (see Matrons thread of "Favourites" ) but I’m happy with it and if it aint broke dont fix it……. I dont think there’s a lot more you can filter out Kers, if you apply too many filters you’ll end up with no bets. The system looks strong mate, you just need to prove it over time now and there’s no reason why you cant enjoy beting ’em whilst your watching…….. congratulations K, I think you’ve got yourself a good "consensus" system here…..<br>:smiley: :smiley:
MrE
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