Pointers-November

[kersly]

Sunday 17th Nov Nat Hunt Non Hcp<br>1.10 Chelt-Taming(5)……………………..Won 100/30<br>3.45 Hayd-Russian Gigolo(6)…………..Lost

kersly

(Edited by kersly at 7:51 pm on Nov. 17, 2002)

[kersly]

Monday 18yh Nov<br>Flat Non Hcp(AW)<br>12.35 Wolvs-Bond Royale(6)….Won 2/1

Nat Hunt Non Hcp<br>1.15 Folk-Kosamet(5)…………….Lost<br>1,55 Leic-Sunridge Fairy(7)……..Won 13/8<br>2.25 Leic-Bow Strada(6)…………Won 4/9

kersly

(Edited by kersly at 3:55 pm on Nov. 18, 2002)

[kersly]

Tuesday 19th Nov<br>Nat Hunt Non Hcp<br>1.30 Kelso-Interdit(5 no p/d)2m6.5f D Nov Ch…Lost<br>2.00 Kelso-Lady Lap Dancer(4 no p/d no adj TS)2m.5f G Sell H…Won 1/1<br>1.40 N.Abb-Joly Bey(7)2m5.5f C Nov Ch…Won 5/4<br>_____________________________________________<br>Flat Hcp-reference only<br>1.50 Ling-Looking Down(5)..Lost

kersly<br>

(Edited by kersly at 2:53 pm on Nov. 19, 2002)

[kersly]

November so far up to and including Tuesday 19th Nov

NON HCP FLAT<br>Selections…………………………..17<br>Wins………………………………….. 8<br>Staked………………………………..17.00 points<br>Returned……………………………..25.97 Points<br>Profit/Loss……………………………(+8.97)

NAT HUNT NON HCP<br>Selections……………………………..33<br>Wins……………………………………..14<br>Staked…………………………………..33.00 points<br>Returned………………………………..38.29 points<br>Profit/Loss………………………………(+5.29)

Combined………………………………..(+14.26)<br>_____________________________________________<br>Monitoring Hcps only;<br>Flat Hcp<br>Selections…………………………………2<br>Win…………………………………………..1<br>Staked………………………………………2.00 points<br>Returned……………………………………6.50 points<br>Profit/Loss………………………………….(+4.50)

Nat Hunt Hcp<br>Selections……………………………………8<br>Wins……………………………………………1<br>Staked…………………………………………8.00 points<br>Returned………………………………………3.00 points<br>Profit/Loss…………………………………….(-5.00)

Combined………………………………………(-0.50)

From this years results using this idea and from a period studied some while ago if a horse is quoted at 7/1 + the strike rate is very low this would have eliminated a few losers,also I question the worth of backing f/c odds on.<br>Ill follow as per original idea for the time being.

kersly

(Edited by kersly at 3:21 pm on Nov. 19, 2002)

[kersly]

Wednesday 20th Nov

2.15 Southwell-Indian Steppes(6)..Lost(2nd)

kersly

(Edited by kersly at 8:29 pm on Nov. 20, 2002)

[kersly]

Thursday 21st Nov<br>Non Hcp Nat Hunt<br>12.25 M.Rasen-Domenico(6)…Non Runner<br>12.45 Winc-Orangerie(6)……..Lost<br>1.20 Winc-Janiture(6)………….Lost<br>____________________________________________<br>Nat Hunt Hcp-reference only<br>1.10 Hereford-Nick The Jewel(7)…Won<br>1.40 Hereford-Smart Lord(5)…Lost<br>2.00 M.Rasen-Juracon II(7)…Lost<br>3.20 Winc-Chief Cashier(7)…Lost

kersly

(Edited by kersly at 12:23 am on Nov. 22, 2002)

[kersly]

Friday 22nd Nov

Nat Hunt Non Hcp<br>2.05 Ascot-Master George……..Won 9/4<br>2.40 Ascot-Baracouda……………Won 2/5<br>_____________________________________________<br>Nat Hunt Hcp-reference only<br>1.10 Exeter-Wartorn……Meeting Abandoned

kersly

(Edited by kersly at 4:52 pm on Nov. 22, 2002)<br>

(Edited by kersly at 11:21 am on Dec. 1, 2002)

[kersly]

Sat 23rd Nov<br>Nat Hunt Non Hcp<br>1.35 Hunt-Krabloonik(7)…………Lost<br>_____________________________________________<br>Flat Hcp-reference only<br>11.50 Ling-Coffee Time(7)……Lost<br>1.50 Ling-Marnie(7)….Lost

kersly

(Edited by kersly at 4:37 pm on Nov. 23, 2002)<br>

(Edited by kersly at 9:02 pm on Nov. 24, 2002)

[kersly]

Sunday 24th Nov<br>Nat Hunt Non Hcp<br>1.45 Fakenham-Mark It…….Won 5/2<br>_____________________________________________<br>Nat Hunt Hcp-reference only<br>2.15 Fakenham-Strong Magic……Lost<br>3.20 Fakenham-Take Heed………Lost<br>_____________________________________________<br>In the 12.25 Aintree-Jupiter De Bussy qualifies apart from f/c SP may well relent and make this an each way selection but wont include in records whatever the outcome……Won 11/2

kersly

(Edited by kersly at 8:49 pm on Nov. 24, 2002)

[kersly]

Monday 25th Nov<br>Nat Hunt Non Hcp<br>2.00 Newcastle-Valereux……Lost<br>3.20 Ludlow-Ballycassidy……Lost<br>_____________________________________________<br>Nat Hunt Hcp-reference only<br>12.45 Ludlow Sadlers Secret……Lost<br>3.30 Newcastle-Trooper………….Lost

kersly<br>

(Edited by kersly at 1:15 pm on Nov. 26, 2002)

[MrE]

Hi Kers, seems like you might have a good "consensus" system building up here, the results look very promising. I just thought that you might save a weary pair of eyes (mine) from scanning back months of postings, and tell me when your last modification was. The results achieved prior to that would be irrelevant because of that change of tactics….. I have a plan…. :biggrin: :biggrin: …. I gotta few good staking methods going back years (believe me mate, there aint many good ‘uns), and the method I fancy on this would do us proud….. I just wanna quick furkle through since your last change over, to see how it fits in its present form……..

MrE

[kersly]

Hi Mr E-Ill reply soon.

Tuesday 26th Nov<br>Flat (AW) Non Hcp<br>12.05 Southwell-Blue Trojan………..Lost<br>1.05 Southwell-Surdoue………………Won 5/2

kersly

(Edited by kersly at 4:03 pm on Nov. 26, 2002)

[kersly]

Hi Mr E,<br>As stated the only selections I invest on are the Non Hcp Selections both Nat Hunt and Flat(inc AW).There was a change to the selection procedure at the beginning of NOV.The basis of the selection procedure is still there in its present form from NOv 1st the results are as shown.

Sequence of Flat Results……….

6/4,L,L,L,L,5/2,3/1,L,5/2,11/10,3/1,7/2,L,L,L,11/8,L,2/1,L

Selections…………….. 19<br>Wins…………………….   9<br>Staked………………….  19<br>Returned……………….29.47<br>P/L……………………….(+10.47)<br>_____________________________________________<br>Sequence of NH Results for Nov.

L,L,4/1,5/1,L,4/6,L,L,L,L,L,L,4/7,L,9/4,L,L,10/11,2/5,L,<br>11/8,L,L,L,0/30,L,L,13/8,4/9,L,1/1,5/4,L,L,9/4,2/5,L,<br>5/2,L,L.

Selections…………………….40<br>Wins……………………………16<br>Staked…………………………24<br>Return………………………….43.91<br>P/L………………………………(+3.91)<br>_____________________________________________<br>Combined to 1 point level stakes(+14.38)<br>_____________________________________________<br>October finished with a Combined loss of (-0.98)-seemed to coincide with end of Flat season.<br>_____________________________________________<br>September showed a combined Profit of (+30.00)

kersly<br>

[MrE]

Hi Kersly…. I’ve just checked through Octobers results and they were painful, you have far too many odds on winners (27 from 40 were odds on) for any sensible staking method to work, even a steady drip method would be hard pushed to survive that onslaught of bad value. This month the prices have been excellent and is the reason why your bank is looking strong. If you hold your records for October still, it would possibly be a good move to kick out all the odds on selections and then have a look at how October would have fared, I think it might be worth looking at. I’m not trying to interfere mate, just hoping to help, you had a SR of slightly below 50% and those odds on shots were a possible drain on resources…….<br>:biggrin: :biggrin: :cool:

MrE

[kersly]

Hi Mr E,<br>No problem Mr E I appreciate your observations,surely the purpose of the board.<br>My  post of 19-11-02 indicates Ive doubts about f/c odds on selections,they do look a dodgy medium,perhaps the stipulation odds on no bet but thats not possible on the net  when having to  place bets early,sadly no use of Betfair either.Havnt had much time but even a quick scan through results show that leaving odds on selections out would apparently not have reduced the profits it might even had made Oct a + month.I need to analyse further.In reality Ive very little data to prove one way or another.Ill use the idea to the end of the month then take stock.Im also concerned about Chase races but yet again not enough evidence to have any firm conclusions.<br>Lets see how it develops.

kersly

<br>

[MrE]

Hello again… :biggrin: … I have no doubt that to stop betting odds on is the answer with your system. On one of the other boards that you post on, there is a guy that has an 80% strike rate with odds on selections, now THAT we could live with but 50% is a bit low…. your system looks to be a little cracker cos the prices are good overall and it is something to look forward to. For November so far I am 70 points up (paper trading only) against your 14 points at levels but I did stake more. With the odds on taken out, I think there would be a noticable difference. With regards to the betting aspect, most bookies will except your instructions not to place the bet if the selection is any worse than evens (or any other price you stipulate), they’ll bend over backwards to take your money off you….:biggrin: …..  as for Betfair, I dont rate ’em at all, I haven’t paid anybody for the pleasure of having a bet wether its commission or betting tax for many years, and I aint gonna start now. Its hard enough to come out on the good side without having to pay 5%. Just a little while back I had a couple of bets with Flutter, nobody would take my bet so I wasn’t on, I was asking for 5/1. The bet opened at 5/1 and went in to 7/2, I would’ve excepted that but I ended up betless… hehehe…. so now I stick to what I know, for me, conventional bookies are a safer bet and I’ll leave Betfair for those that wanna play "Bookies", that’ll probably stir up a hornets nest but do I care, not a bit….. :biggrin: :biggrin: ….all the best Kersly, a very interesting (and profitable) system……

MrE

[kersly]

Wednesday 27th Nov.<br>Points taken Mr E.Ill go to the end of the month as it is then probably a revision.

Nat Hunt Non Hcp<br>1.45 Weth-Zaffarani…f/c 13/8…………Lost<br>1.55 Chep -No Need For Alarm..f/c 4/6……Won 2/5<br>___________________________________________<br>1.35 Ling-Cill Droichead..f/c 14/1 a high f/c SP Ill probably do as before and make this an each way selection,it wont be recorded in the figs,only other one in Nov like this won at 11/2..aaarrrgh….3rd 9/1<br>____________________________________________<br>Hcps-reference only<br>Flat<br>3.45 Ling-Lara Falana……Lost<br>Nat Hunt<br>12.35 Weth-Interdit………lost

kersly<br> <br>

(Edited by kersly at 3:14 pm on Nov. 29, 2002)

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