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I’m not exactly sure when this trend started, or why. I certainly don’t remember it happening a few years ago with the regularity that it does now. I’m not complaining, or talking through my pocket either, I just don’t understand why the stables runners give away so much ground, so often. I backed Topofthegame today. Widest of all runners, all of the way round, it suited on soft ground around Sandown today. It does not suit all of the time though (like the same horses previous run in the Lanzarote at Kempton).
Why are all Nicholls runners, ridden so wide these days? What exactly started this change in the riding style of the stables runners?
It must be orders from the boss himself, because all of the stables used jockeys, seem to stick to the same modus operandi.
Good point Nause, have been thinking the same myself recently.
Similarly I have noticed Harry Skelton being especially keen to race wide, especially in big fields. Not sure whether it’s a case of self-preservation from his perspective or a deliberate ploy to find better ground and get a good view of the obstacles.
Good point Nausered.
I think this is a tactic overlooked by many trainers. Probably stems from where horses are suited by running. Some show their best form front running, tracking the pace (let’s call those first two types “racing prominently”), mid-div, held up or dropped out the back. I’ve noticed over the years when a horse that usually races prominently can’t (because there’s too many of his type in a race) – when needing to race back in the field these do far better when racing on the outer… Because – like when racing prominently – they have a clear view of obsticles (jumping better) and/or are not surrounded/cramped for room. Can sulk and/or not give their running, some are even claustrophobic. Obviously for some that run prominently it may have nothing to do with a clear view/cramped, but for a lot of horses I believe it’s important.
Topofthegame has run 6 times and his penultimate start in the Lanzarote was the first time he’d faced a field of over 10 runners. He was also held up there; the first time he’d been ridden any other way than racing prominently. I actually think it’s probable a horse of his type will be raced wide when back in the field; because although it gives away ground it also makes the probability of showing his form far greater than when racing on the inner/crowded.
Harry Skelton’s Captain Chaos’s best form (on his previous two starts) came when front running. There were a lot of front runners in yesterday’s Townton, so again – he was raced wider in order to get a clear view and/or a position where he wasn’t crowded.
Value Is EverythingIt’s 100% been becoming more and more the theme LS. It’s not just the novices, that you could think he is just looking after, through their novice hurdle year, looking forward to fences. They all seem to get ridden wide in handicaps now from the stable, young and old alike. Keep you eyes out, you will notice it far more too. It started first at Cheltenham I’m sure, not just the festival either. He does not seem to like his horses going down the inside anymore, in double figure field sizes, his horses are now almost always running wide… Even when the ground does not suit to employ these tactics.
I totally get the certain nervous horses, not wanting to be crowded point GT, but I honestly think it’s something more than that at play here. Maybe where he has not quite got the horses that he did have, he’s being over protective of his better ones. Even when I’ve not had a bet on his horse in a certain race, over the past year or so I’ve noticed more and more that his will be stuck on the outside, giving often a ton of ground away. It happens far to much, with a host of different jockeys to be anything other than Nicholls orders.
Harry Skelton has unquestionably still got some Nicholls orders running through his head.
Interesting observation, Nausered, and a factor I hadn’t picked up. He’s a demon for detail and I wonder if he’s taking the view that galloping on the same ground gouged by dozens of hooves makes little sense.
Maybe the fresh ground on the outer is the percentage call. I’d say that over the past 5 or 6 seasons the ground has been deep throughout the whole winter, almost without fail. Far from the old days when you’d get some bad seasons and some good in reasonably spaced rhythm. Night Nurse once went through a whole season winning nine races, every single one on good ground.
Maybe he has just done his homework. Perhaps he, or one of his assistants, watched a couple of hundred re-runs of races at a quiet time of year. Maybe they assessed how much energy is wasted by running in the pack; the constant adjustments left/right to avoid other horses whose jockey wants to move in or out; the constant adjustment to hold the horse back or move it forward as other horses crowd around or change position; how much energy is wasted especially at the hurdles or fences by having other horses getting in the way of seeing and achieving a take-off on a perfect stride. Around Newbury, if a horse is running five metres wide of the rail it costs about 16 metres per lap compared to scraping the rail, obviously that only applies round the bends because there is no loss on the straights. Even then, not all of your opponents are scraping the rail, many are often one or two wide anyway, so the loss might be less than that. So the expertise comes from assessing how much a horses gains by maintaining an ideal rhythm and having good sight of the obstacles and possibly better ground, against how much it loses by travelling further. Maybe he has actually calculated the probabilities and possibilities at every course.
Has anyone got any stats about the proportion of NH races won by horses running most of a race on the rail, compared to what might be expected from its SP, ranking in the market, or other measure of its prior probability of winning?
I remember Martin Pipe eventually being praised for measuring how fit a horse is, how to get a horse to the required level of fitness, and then ensuring that a race was run to take advantage of his horse’s fitness, and minimising the occurance of mishaps by getting out in front. Perhaps Paul Nicholls is another trainer to have done his homework and has found a different edge.
I think Steeplechasing and Marginal Value have pretty much given the most plausible reasons. As Ginge also mentioned, he obviously sees some advantage to it.
Me personally, I think since Ruby left, he’s over thinking things a little to much, and probably going slightly overboard with the riding instructions. Even though I won a nice bet on Sat with TOTG… I’ve seen far far more cases, where his runner has been given little chance, by lining up at the back of the field, on the wide outside. For a while I thought it was Twiston-Davis, but I was wrong, it’s unquestionably orders from above.
He’s such a competitive man/trainer, so it puzzles me. I was trying to think back over the past couple of years… Did he lose a good horse in a fall anywhere? Maybe it’s left a mark if so. Maybe as you lot have said, he’s seen an edge in it, but to my untrained eye, it’s not really working out that way.
Was listening to racing radio today and it was mentioned several times that horses were racing wide; certainly one of Richard Johnsons was but I’m afraid I can’t recall which one.
Maybe some of the time it’s to find the better ground and the rest of the time he’s accepted he doesn’t have the top Graded horses that he used to so it’s a tactic to keep the horses marks down for the Cheltenham (and other) handicaps
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