- This topic has 42 replies, 15 voices, and was last updated 17 years, 7 months ago by
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I do my own figures using the comparison on the results page of the RP. I will then use my own class pars to give the times there value and this will be converted into a figure that I can use to represent the run. I can tell the ground conditions with impressive accuracy and you’d be suprised what your actually reading on the RP. Lets say Newmarket’s card by distance was;
6f
7f
10f
14f
6f
10f
8fWell we would split the round course up and the straight up so theres a more accurate result. Very profitable are speed figures and also if you want to judge the pace your self then get your self a stop watch and do it yourself furlong by furlong. You dont get nothing in this life without working for it.
I’d be interested to see what you (Or anyone else) made of the last race at Kempton today?
Ostensibly the fastest race of the day, I’d broadly agree with the RP analysis that it was a "fairly steady gallop", which must surely corrupt any resultant speed figures, or any attempt at pace analysis on the day without the use of proper sectionals?Did you mean Armures win? If so I thought it was just about run in the fashion of a class 3 time. Ave has run about 3 lengths quicker then its class but the ground got quicker through out the night as figures suggest so not worth following any leads.
There is a good article on Pace Ratings at the following
http://frandsen.com/newsletters/april00brs.htm
There are good pace predictions at Fracsoft (You will need to register, but its free to access their form sheets)
The pace data is scored.
For instance in the 4.20 Goodwood
Tranquil Tiger is described as having a Front Running style and was scored 3.5, The next was Many Volumes scored 2.9 Meydan City and Purple Moon were scored 1.0 and running style Behind
Good Luck
Monster
Prufrock .. surely a horse running a race at a pace line in with it’s ability is it’s speed figure?
Very few horses run races at a pace strictly in line with their ability (as far as we actually know what that ability is). Most performances feature energy expenditure that is not as efficient as it could be. As a result, most accurately calculated timefigures based on overall race time do not truly reflect the horse’s ability. Sectional analysis enables you to amend the overall race time in the light of how that time was achieved.
- Total Posts 17716
There is a good article on Pace Ratings at the following
http://frandsen.com/newsletters/april00brs.htm
There are good pace predictions at Fracsoft (You will need to register, but its free to access their form sheets)
The pace data is scored.
For instance in the 4.20 Goodwood
Tranquil Tiger is described as having a Front Running style and was scored 3.5, The next was Many Volumes scored 2.9 Meydan City and Purple Moon were scored 1.0 and running style Behind
Good Luck
Monster
To my eyes that was an amazing performance by Tom Queally and Tranquil Tiger. They set a searing gallop throughout yet still had enough left to hold on for a dead-heat, and though at a lesser level, very reminiscent of Hawk Wing’s Lockinge.
Once again the speed figures won’t tell the full story, as the modest 5 & 6 furlong races were run only marginally slower. I’d bet good money though that the round course ran appreciably slower than the sprint course, because visually, there was no comparison at all in how the races were run.- Total Posts 17716
Reet,
I have the straight course running good to firm ( 3.58 ) and the round course running on good ( 1.28 ). Apart from Tranquil Tiger who has recorded a group class time the horse to take from the round course would have to be Shimoni and would seriously be thinking of backing him and Spirit of Adjisa next time out on good ground who should be able to take a class 3 race or lower within the rest of the season.
How do you sectional timers allow for dolling out?
Where horses go four or five yards further in "a furlong" than the proper 220yrds.
Does it make a big difference in the time of one furlong against another?
One furlong might look relatively slow but if it is run over further than 220 yards it may be quicker than it seems.
Mark
Value Is EverythingI have only done sectionals on AW tracks – where dolling out is not an issue – in recent years, as those were the only ones provided electronically by TurfTrax until recently and are the only ones I am now prepared to gather by hand as a matter of course. Sectionals on turf are fiddlier anyway, for reasons that have nothing to do with dolling.
As with calculation of timefigures based on overall times, it would be a question of adjusting times/standards in the light of alterations to the course where it is known. A race time is, after all, a sectional: a 100% sectional rather than a fraction thereof.
How do you sectional timers allow for dolling out?
Where horses go four or five yards further in "a furlong" than the proper 220yrds.
Does it make a big difference in the time of one furlong against another?
One furlong might look relatively slow but if it is run over further than 220 yards it may be quicker than it seems.
Mark
For individual horses varying sectional times on turf can be be due not only to longer furlongs due to dolling out, it can also be a combination of where it races relative to the rail, the leader slowing or speeding, being boxed in, variations in going along the length of the course, the energy profile of the individual horse, relative fitness, the wind speed and changing of relative direction and any headwind cover, ability on turns, change of leads etc. This needs the development and use of bespoke automated analysis software and the best fit is found with the various clues and past data of how horse have run. Any difference / cause can then be estimated. By that time you know more about the horses than they do.
- Total Posts 17716
How do you sectional timers allow for dolling out?
Where horses go four or five yards further in "a furlong" than the proper 220yrds.
Does it make a big difference in the time of one furlong against another?
One furlong might look relatively slow but if it is run over further than 220 yards it may be quicker than it seems.
Mark
I put an extra 0.5 onto the distance so say its run over 5f 220yrds ill put 5.5 down. This happens alot at Bath.
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