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Hi gang
I am amazed that data figures for "the pace of the race" is such a neglected area. Sectional times seem to have bited the dust. From my point of view…. i would like to see at least a snapshot of the race tempo.
For example, using the follow guide figures–>
****************************************************7 very fast
6 fast
5 above average
4 average
3 below average
2 slow
1 very slowTherefore a muddling mile race might display this pattern……..
1-2-4-3-4-5-6-7 (not a true test of a eight furlong contest)
I am hoping someone can tell me that this "type" of data is available. <!– s8) –>
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BUT I DOUBT IT…….. even a rough estimate or a fiendish contrivance would be useful.Hmmmmmm
byefrom
carlisleCarlisle,
It is one of the conundrum’s of UK and Irish racing that if any data is "useful", for analysis or profitwise, it is not readily available. If the proles lap up the "turn of foot", "travelled well", "head carriage", "Hawk Wind rated at 137" etc garbage that passes for intelligent commentary, then what else can you expect? You are mostly on your own and thankfully it takes considerable effort and skill. Prufrock posted recently about combining resources for the very same pace/ sectional data as you are asking.
Conundrum is the correct word.
The value of this type of data is that it’s not readily available – the type of data that might lead to having an ‘edge’ is the type of data that is not readily available.
However, the reason that it’s not there for all and sundry is that either there is no way of collecting the data or it is time consuming and difficult to gather/collate.
Like anything else it is the people prepared to work hard it it who will benefit. Those waiting to grab it ‘off the shelf’ will find that, by that stage, it’s no longer of any value because everyone will know it.
Carlisle – if you’re interested in exploring this avenue I’d suggest dropping Prufrock an email.
There is a web-site somewhere that shows you how to compile your own pace figures .. but I can’t think for the life of me where it is. If I can find it I will drop you a PM carlilse.
Pace is the new draw bias.
Agree that if your data collection and processing isnt original your pissing against the wind over the long term.
Pace is the new draw bias.
Agree that if your data collection and processing isnt original your pissing against the wind over the long term.
**Sorry internet connection playing up
Regarding pace figures – I know Jon Gibby, ‘Betting on Flat Handicaps’ detailed part of his approach when analysing pace. He awarded points for a horse’s position in its last three races. For example, horses making all, leading etc were given the highest number of points, down to those held-up.
However, he identified the American ‘handicappers’ (punters, not horses) as being the originators of this method. Obviously in the US there is a lot more information regarding sectional times and horses positions in the race at the 2,4,6F mark etc.
For those interested in the pace points analysis, I’m sure a simple Google search will unearth the material. Or get Gibby’s book – it’s an enjoyable read.
Such data would have to take into account the going,the weather,and the contours of the course and finally whether a straight course or with some bends.Then the next time you have exactly the same circumstances you could extrapolate from the data!!!!!!!!!!If the course is not adjusted to give the horses fresh ground.
- Total Posts 17716
I do my own figures using the comparison on the results page of the RP. I will then use my own class pars to give the times there value and this will be converted into a figure that I can use to represent the run. I can tell the ground conditions with impressive accuracy and you’d be suprised what your actually reading on the RP. Lets say Newmarket’s card by distance was;
6f
7f
10f
14f
6f
10f
8fWell we would split the round course up and the straight up so theres a more accurate result. Very profitable are speed figures and also if you want to judge the pace your self then get your self a stop watch and do it yourself furlong by furlong. You dont get nothing in this life without working for it.
I think it is extremely difficult to get an edge in this department. Trouble is unlike US tracks ours are all different. Right handed, left handed undulating, flat etc. Then there is getting a good reading of ground conditions and (often neglected) wind speed and direction.
What can quite easily be done is, instead of breaking each race down in to furlongs or two furlongs, just do early pace, middle pace and last quarter. It is usually quite easy to spot a falsely run race when viewing. And is often fairly straightforward to spot one that will be slowly run or truly run before the race.
When studying a race I usually note down those who need to lead to show their best form, those who usually front run, front run / race prominently, track the pace, race mid div, held up or dropped out.
If there is only one horse who is in any of the first 3 or 4 groupings the race is likely to favour him. Getting an easy lead. Unless that likely front runner needs a test of stamina at the trip anyway, then there is no point to go slow early as he’d get outpaced. Races with slowly run early sections usually favour those who race prominently.
Where as if there are several who like racing up with the pace, a good pace is likely to favour those held up. However, when going up in trip horses rarely make it a test of stamina.
In the Timeform Perspective they usually tell you more about this than other form books I have seen. Also, they have a form rating for the first six home with a time rating to say how many pounds below (or sometimes ahead) the time performance is of the form rating. This can be invaluable. Though there are times when too fast early fractions can result in a slow time, usually with those dropped out the back coming through.
It must be remembered that a slow over all time does not mean a horse is poor, but a good time does mean the horse is a good one.
It is getting very difficult to judge times with clerks dolling out parts of racecourses seemingly at will. With races over different distances than advirtised.
Mark
Value Is EverythingHi gang
WOW…intelligent replies (guess i will have to read them hahahhaha)
something to look forward to…..
Monday morning and i am already running late… gym, tennis, college, etc
i definitely couldn’t cope if i had a job!.byefrom
GaryCarlisle .. it’s Patternform that does pace figures.
You might get some ideas reading through his site. He uses figures derived from comments in running and then combines this with the actual in-running betting on betfair. Interesting stuff.
Interesting stuff , indeed I agree with most , thing is the variance factors in going and fresh ground make it very intricate to say the least
whereas Wolves , great leighs , Lingfield are much easier
Southwell and Kempton are Jungle material
cheers
Ricky
Hi everyone
thanks for the interesting information and views. I will checkout the website…. cheers dave.
I think the going correction & the standard times iron out all of the data difficulities. The pace figures i had in mind would illuminate only the race in question. Furthermore…. super accuracy isn’t necessary IMO… a useful indictation of the pace within a race is enough for me.
Plenty of food for thought atm…..hmmmm
byefrom
carlisleTimeform give a guide in their comments as well as the speed figure:
Strong pace, fair pace, slow pace, pace slowed mid-race. Proved difficult to come from behind, favoured those held up. etc.
Mark
Value Is EverythingAs a matter of interest, Gingertipster, do you think it would be useful if Timeform were to express the pace of the race numerically, such as could be derived from fairly basic sectionals?
As a matter of interest, Gingertipster, do you think it would be useful if Timeform were to express the pace of the race numerically, such as could be derived from fairly basic sectionals?
Don’t really see much point Prufrock. How would you put numbers to “the pace was stop start until 3f out”? In a 1m4f race, 2, 4, 2, 2, 4, 4, 2, 4, 2, 5, 6, 5? And what if the pace quickened 2 1/2f out, how would you express those two half furlongs? I think the way they do it now is quite sufficient. With a comment plus a form figure and timefigure. Unless they state “leaders went off too fast for their own good”, we know if the timefigure is significantly lower than form figure, then early pace must’ve been slow anyway.
Mark
Value Is Everything
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