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Point Lonsdale 2- 1 for me, hopefully trip will suit. His wins have come with a bit of ease but he’s Broome’s brother and does travel OK on quicker.
I’m finding it hard to believe Arrest is running here. I know he won here last year but the going was soft and is quick enough today, drawn in stall 6 not ideal but the longer race not so significant but a negative nonetheless for a horse that likes to go forward.
I’m not sure I can trust Point Lonsdale at the price although I do love him..
Blackbeard to conquer the World
If Point Lonsdale can get the lead and not be hassled for the lead, then he has a great chance. But both Asset and the rank outsider Wynter Wildes also like to be up there. PL has been prominent on all of his 15 starts. Last time out even coming under the whip out of the gate in order to fulfil his pace making duties. Ran well enough but did tie up in the closing stages in a race that was not truly run / should have suited a prominent racer. Possibly outclassed in a Group 1 but will probably need to do better than that here.
If the ground is still GOOD then Asset should be ok, but some of the times yesterday came within 3 seconds of breaking standard and is bound to be firmer today. If I were connections I’d seriously be thinking of pulling a horse with such a round action out. If so it will greatly help Point Lonsdale. The way Arrest was kept out wide early last time out strongly suggests connections believe he needs a clear view of the front too. He’s probably at his very best on softer than GOOD anyway.
Wynter Wildes does not need to front run, but at other courses is usually ridden prominently and often kept 3 or 4 wide for a clear view of the front. Surely they won’t want to be kept that wide at Chester and – drawn 3, on the inner of Point Lonsdale – may decide they need to lead in order to get that clear view. In contrast to Point Lonsdale, Wynter Wildes seems very quick out of the gate too. That’s if this is not just a jolly day out for connections. Massively outclassed.
But it is possible there will be more pace on than usual at Chester…
My three against the field should all be further back in the field.2022 Voltigeur winner Deaville Legend ran a great race to be placed in the Melbourne Cup that year. Didn’t seem to be bringing his A game last season, and didn’t run after August. But first time blinkers here suggest this has been a target race. His 2022 form arguably better than Lonsdale or Arrest.
Alsakib’s reappearance was probably needed at a time when Andrew Balding was not in anywhere near the sort of form he is now. Needs to improve but was progressive last season, culminating in winning a couple of Heritage Handicaps, latter off a mark of 96. Not absolutely sure he’ll stay, but it is only a furlong and a bit.
My other bet is Enemy. Came agonisingly close to a big pay day for connections in the Middle East on penultimate start. A run that gives him a chance here. Stays well and usually dropped out the back. If they go too fast early…Backed:
Deaville Legend at an average price of 5, Alsakib 8.75 and Enemy 14.
Small Lay Arrest @ 3.45 and backed a third of that back @ 4.9Value Is EverythingCan’t have arrest on the drying ground. Will be much quicker as warm already in chester and sun due soon. Just don’t know what to expect from deauville Legend. If he’s back to his best the one to beat IMHO. No wonder bookies make money.
Point Lonsdale is a rogue and looks too short
Arrest won’t like the ground, be surprised if he’s not a non runner
Deauville legend didn’t look the same horse last season after his big run in the Melbourne Cup. He’d be interesting if he came back to his 2022 form.
Alsakib has a lot to find on figures and should be 10/1+ imo
That leaves the rock solid enemy, who’s second to tower of london (finished ahead of giavelloto and Al nayyir) is up there with the best recent form in the race and he is 12/1 I’d have him plenty shorter for all he will need them to go a good gallop.
Enemy with a saver on deauville legend for me
“If Point Lonsdale can get the lead and not be hassled for the lead, then he has a great chance. ”
Not sure he has to lead as he took a lead when winning the Alleged last year and disputed it a lot of the way for the Huxley Stakes. But agree he has to be prominent as he does not exactly have a blistering turn of foot.
I didn’t say PL “has to lead” Green’.
In the Alleged he was drawn widest so was always going to have a clear view of the front, did not matter if not leading.
In last year’s Huxley he was vigorously pushed along from the start, in order to get a clear view of the front and again ended up on the outer. Helped no end by nothing on his outer wanting to race prominently. There is one today on his outer who will want to race prominently and may even want to lead… that could come across him and… If another rival goes upsides; keeping PL without a clear view of the front. Therefore as I said, if not “leading” he could get in behind… Not saying it will happen, just a possibility.
Might be easier now, with the known prominent runner on the inner now a non-runner.
Value Is EverythingI hope Captain Robbo was watching. When Point Lonsdale won at Royal Ascot as a two year old, he told us all he would become the best horse in the history of racing. 😉
Put up Point Lonsdale 5/1 in Meydan Thursday thread on May 4th
Very happy with him and Capulet today
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