- This topic has 109 replies, 34 voices, and was last updated 18 years, 6 months ago by
.
- Posts
- Total Posts 438
I can recall when the Chepstow meeting featuring the Timeform Free Handicap Hurdle and the Mercedes-Benz Handicap Chase signalled the start of the jumps season, but it looks like there’s a new starting point for "jumps racing proper" now…..
Anyway, that minor trip down memory lane aside, what a cracker we should have on Sunday. Or will we? The ground is likely to play havoc with the best laid of plans; they’re going to be watering on a daily basis at Aintree and any unexpected showers (which have been known to occur in the north-west of England on occasion) could turn the ground very sticky indeed.
Corals are already running a book, apparently, on the race, although it wasn’t visible on their website when I just looked. They make Kauto Star 7-4 favourite, despite top weight and reservations about the ground, followed by Monet’s Garden, at 9-4, Exotic Dancer, at 3s, with My Way de Solzen at 4s. It’s then 9-1 Ashley Brook, 16s Monkerhostin and any price you like the rest. Monkerhostin and Hi Cloy (33s) would have been viable each-way bets in their heyday but seem to be getting a little over the hill now. It really looks as though the winner will come from the top five in the market.
If the weathermen (and women, before I get slapped) are right, though, the first of the major players I’d rule out of the equation is, sadly, my favourite: My Way de Solzen. Aintree simply isn’t his course, as two defeats over hurdles there have shown. Okay, they were both very good efforts (second to Turpins Green as a novice and then to Mighty Man after the World Hurdle), but fell several pounds short of his best. The tight configuration of Aintree is to blame, at least partially, and with the chase track running around the inside of the hurdles course there, I simply can’t see him acting on the course. Alan King said, after his reappearance defeat at Wetherby last season, that he can’t get My Way fit at home, as he does all of his work so easily, so he has to be overlooked in a race where everything will need to go right. If it does rain heavily, however, then he’ll surely have a grand chance…..
Monet’s Garden is the next I would strike off the list. He is clearly top-class on his day, as his wins at Ascot and here at Aintree showed last term, but is prone to the odd inexplicably poor run, as in the King George in December. The ground should hold no fears for him, as his excellent second to Voy Por Ustedes in the previous season’s Arkle was achieved on a similar sort of surface, but he isn’t a horse in which I could have a great deal of faith. He’ll probably win in a hack canter now, but he just isn’t my type.
Ashley Brook could be anything but he’s always been a "nearly" horse for me; capable of some fine performances, such as when runner-up to Kauto Star in the 2005 Tingle Creek, but equally likely to have something go amiss. His fall at the last, when still in with every chance, in the Champion Chase is a case in point; he is reportedly over the soreness which resulted from that mishap. The twenty pounds he’ll be getting from the Gold Cup winner (assuming that the latter runs) will be more than handy and Aintree has always been his type of course, as his demolition of War Of Attrition as a novice demonstrated. If he’s fully primed, he should run well.
The big two from last season, Kauto Star and Exotic Dancer, will obviously set the standard. At the weights, the latter must have every chance of reversing the form and his stable are sounding a bit more optimistic about his state of readiness than are the Nicholls team. It really is very difficult to pick between them, so I’ll leave well alone.
Ashley Brook, each-way, for me.
A nice analysis, yquem.
I’m absolutely wetting myself with excitment over this one! For me the most interesting factor of the whole race will be the weights. Kauto Star will be on top weight of 11-10, then ED on 11-3, Monkerhostin on 10-5 and the rest (including Ashleybrook, MG and MWDS) all on minimum 10-4.
I agree with you on MWDS. It was pointed out to me that inevitably he needs his first run, which if you look at his first time out record could not be more obvious. Tends to run well below his best FTO. So for me he’s a cross off the list right away. Disappointing, as he’d be a mouth-watering prospect off 10-4 in this contest. All that being said, I’m surprised he’s as big as 4/1. Would have anticipated a more tentative approach by the bookies at this point.
ED is an interesting one. At the weights, you’d say him and KS would be going pretty close. However, I think a sharp 2m4 round Aintree will be a little too quick for him, 2m5 round a big galloping track like Cheltenham is his minimum IMO, looking at how much he improved for going further. However, a break-neck pace up front could play into his hands and I wouldn’t right him off completely.
Ashleybrook isn’t good enough against this lot, a place is his best effort. Same for Monkerhostin these days, although he’s surprised us in the past. For my money Hobbs’ charge is the better value for a place.
Monet’s Garden is the horse to beat for me. Last time out he won a Grade 1 over C&D, beating Well Chief, who IIRC was the highest rated horse in the country at the time. On Sunday he’ll be running off a mark of 159, which for a horse with the above form is an absolute steal.
It’s said he has the odd inexplicable bad run, but for me these runs (King George & Ryanair) have just been too stiff for him. He’s a 2 miler for me, and the sharp 2m4 at his favourite course should suit him down to the ground.Kauto Star is the really contentious one here. He is the undesputed champion over 3m, has previous over this C&D, as well as top-class 2m form, which is always something I look out for over 20f at Aintree. The big question is- can he give all this weight away? I ask the question with respect to all his main rivals individually:
vs. MWDS – I don’t think MWDS will turn up, so yes.
vs. ED- Probably around about 7lbs between them, but over this C&D I think ED is a few pounds below his best, so yes.
vs. MG- Can any horse give 20lbs to a G1 C&D winner? If any horse can it’s KS, but when it’s a home fixture for MG then I’d say this time no.Anyway, that’s my take on the Old Roan Chase. Monet’s Garden to win at 9/4.
Very good preview there yquem.
I’m really looking forward to this race.
I agree with Friggo as I think Monets Garden will take all the beating on Sunday. However I disagree with his optimum trip as I think he is the best 20f chaser in training. He won both British Gr1s at this trip last season and he loves it at Aintree.
If all the big guns turn up, then Kauto Star will be a place lay for me!
not sure if I’m looking forward to it or dreading it! the course terrifies me anyway and both Kauto Star and Exotic Dancer put in the occasional dreadful jump [although Exotic Dancer doesn’t save his till the last fence]. Think I’d go with Monets Garden, likes the track, seems to be more of a 2.5 mile horse and I think someone told me that Nicky Richards horses wern’t 100% last year….was great to see a grey horse trained by Nicky Richards win at Aintree last season, and maybe One Man will be looking down on him again this time. Anyway, come back safe, all of them! heck, I’m so nervous!
Some very good analysis here.
I must admit I am siding with Friggo on this one and I am thinking / hoping Monets Garden will pull it off.
However you can never discount Kauto Star …. every race last season I made what I considered a reasonable argument as to why he would not win the particular race and we all know what he went on to do. I still have the scorch marks from laying him in the Gold Cup!!!
I’m making the trek to Aintree on Sunday so I hope the field does hold up – looking at the weather forecast though I have a feeling the field will not hold up – I just hope I am wrong.
As it stands now I am looking forward to a cracking race – something to look forward to and get me through the days racing at Folkestone and Fakenham this week .
Would have to agree with all of the above. Looks like a top quality renewal fingers crossed they all turn up. I too would be keen on Monet’s Garden. Wasn’t the reason given for his too poor runs that he stayed overnight at the venues? Well, he won’t have far to travel doen the road to Aintree, he has a good record when fresh and this trip could be his optimum.
I’d be against Exotic Dancer on grounds of the trip (Monet’s wiped the floor with him 1st time out last season), MWDS on his first time out record and the other two would have to run better than either showed last year.
And that leaves Kauto. Well, he’ll fall won’t he…?
Kauto Star will find Monet’s Garden a tough nut to crack given the race conditions. One to watch.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
Kauto will sneer at him when he goes past at the last fence.. Monet’s garden will be a sitting duck to the greatest chaser since Arkle…
The accolades will be pouring in afterwards.. I’ll be watching from the bar in towcester!!!
Monet’s Garden loves Aintree, and is a decent jumped.
Kauto Star is giving too much away i think.
Will be a very exciting race, shame as i dont think my favourite horse (My Way De Solzen) will run well.
For me the most interesting factor of the whole race will be the weights. Kauto Star will be on top weight of 11-10, then ED on 11-3, Monkerhostin on 10-5 and the rest (including Ashleybrook, MG and MWDS) all on minimum 10-4.
Looking at the Aintree website, the race seems to be in racecard order with Monets Garden No.3 and Ashleybrook No.4. Given that Monkerhostin is No.5 with 10-5, I think both MG & AB will both carry at least that weight, if not more. I’d say probably 10-8 & 10-7 respectively.
MG will carry 10-10 while AB will carry 10-8
MWDS is a non-runner
edited to delete the link to ATR cos it was distorting the page!
Ashley Brook was a big favourite of mine and I would have loved to have seen him aimed at the King George in his prime. Unfortunately, the trainer never took the chance to find out if he would stay. It is hard to get away from the way Well Chief picked him up so easily at Newbury and although he may be more effective at this trip I have a suspicion he is on a downward slope.
"My Way a non-runner? ? ?
Where does it say that mate? ? ?"
Racing Post site.
Colin
Thanks Colin.
what a cracker we should have on Sunday. Or will we? The ground is likely to play havoc with the best laid of plans; they’re going to be watering on a daily basis at Aintree and any unexpected showers (which have been known to occur in the north-west of England on occasion) could turn the ground very sticky indeed.
I do hope Aintree are aware of the revised weather forecast for the weekend: the met office pressure chart for Saturday would suggest rain and strong winds.
With Sunday’s decs being made on Friday a spate of non-runners come post time would seem quite likely.
something to look forward to and get me through the days racing at Folkestone and Fakenham this week .
"Get through" a days racing at God’s own Fakenham?
Pah!
gc
Jeremy Grayson. Son of immigrant. Adoptive father of two. Metadata librarian. Freelance point-to-point / horse racing writer, analyst and commentator wonk. Loves music, buses, cats, the BBC Micro, ale. Advocate of CBT, PACE and therapeutic parenting. Aspergers.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.