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Hard race to weigh up – the actual form looks strong for Kauto, but I couldn’t help but be a little disappointed with him.
He looked somewhat reluctant and didn’t jump particularly well. The main disappointment though is that for the first time, we have an indication of just how good Kauto Star isn’t…
He is a horse capable of giving away weight to good horses and only just failing, but he is hardly the next Arkle on this showing.
(Amusing seeing what a bad loser Nicholls is though)
Monet’s Garden could be one of the stars of the season if he’s put in the right races. Talk of the TC or Peterborough next. I’m pretty sure the later would suit him a little better, but I’m still adamant he should still be aimed at the Queen Mum this season.
I think today was Monet’s Garden’s Cheltenham, to be honest. Even in the Peterborough Chase, First Ascot Gold Cup, Melling Chase or whichsoever of the best 2m4f contests he may be aimed at hereafter, he’s not going to get any comparable concession of weight from top-class animals.
Bear in mind also than this was the sixth straight year in which he has won on his seasonal bow. He only gets the opportunity to do that once a year.
Bear in mind further that he is also regarded by connections as a horse not always given to travel to races very well – whilst the 3m trip probably didn’t suit him at Kempton, the lather (culminating in dehydration) that he got himself into on the trip down didn’t help a right lot, either. They did well, therefore, to get him down to Ascot happy and contented last season, but that can’t rate as a given.
All in all I’d be treating him with just a little bit of caution until the Melling Chase, particularly if asked to choose between him and one other otherwise very tightly-matched opponent.
gc
Jeremy Grayson. Son of immigrant. Adoptive father of two. Metadata librarian. Freelance point-to-point / horse racing writer, analyst and commentator wonk. Loves music, buses, cats, the BBC Micro, ale. Advocate of CBT, PACE and therapeutic parenting. Aspergers.
The stewards should have a word with McCoy and O’Neill.
I’m not sure I agree entirely with that. For all it was a fairly listless performance by the horse, there is an argument that his debut last season wasn’t a great deal more animated itself – remember that he reappeared in a three-runner graduation chase at Carlisle where they went round in a hack canter playing "after you, Claude" until three out and recorded a time a whole minute slower than standard.
Taking the view that that Carlisle race proved the perfect mask to indolence, I think I’d take the view that Exotic Dancer is a stuffy animal increasingly given to doing two thirds of nish first time out, and McCoy, realising that knocking the horse about wasn’t going to rectify that any, spared him the rod for the greater part. It’s all about next time out for this horse, to my mind.
gc
Jeremy Grayson. Son of immigrant. Adoptive father of two. Metadata librarian. Freelance point-to-point / horse racing writer, analyst and commentator wonk. Loves music, buses, cats, the BBC Micro, ale. Advocate of CBT, PACE and therapeutic parenting. Aspergers.
I dont know what to make of the race.
Monets Garden-Jumped beautifully and will come on for the run.
Kauto Star-I dont know if it was a good run or bad run,it will look good in the form book,but we will know more after his next run,he didnt look like he was traveling as smooth as he usually does.
Exotic Dancer-If he wsnt ”on” today youve got nothing to worry about,if he was i would try and lay him and get your money back for the Gold Cup.
Ashleybrook-Shame to see him fall but i wouldnt give up on him yet seemed to still be going well.
They’re all going to improve a wee bit for the run though GC, so saying this is Monet’s Gardens Cheltenham is being a bit rude to connections, the horse was entitled to win off that weight today. I don’t think winning first time out should be held against him in some way either, after how badly he under-performed at Cheltenham in March i’d take his win today very positively. The only problem for him is the competativness of the division, thats what I think could find him out. The Rynair should be his for the taking if he goes for it.
To clarify for / corrrect you – I neither ruled out the possibility of Monet’s Garden (or the others) improving again, nor knocked him for winning on debut. The latter is, after all, what he is has done six years running now.
If the improvement comes, as it has for the greater part in recent years, what is concerning me now is (a) whether he can improve at the same or better rates than those he is likely to encounter hereafter; (b) which of the subsequent tests he will undertake will suit him as well (both in terms of trip and chance at the weights) as today; and (c) whether he defeats himself in the immediate run-up to those tests.
It’s hardly rude to point out that this may ultimately prove to have been his best chance (and one taken) to beat a Championship aspirant this season (though he could yet record better Timeform ratings / RPRs in defeat elsewhere), much less to point out that there are certain flaws to point out when evaluating him as a potential Championship race aspirant himself.
Out of interest, what, if anything, did you see about this performance that makes the Ryanair Chase any more "his for the taking" than it was last year, a renewal that saw him niggled from two-thirds distance and ultimately held in fourth? Genuine question, incidentally, not an attempt at baiting.
gc
Jeremy Grayson. Son of immigrant. Adoptive father of two. Metadata librarian. Freelance point-to-point / horse racing writer, analyst and commentator wonk. Loves music, buses, cats, the BBC Micro, ale. Advocate of CBT, PACE and therapeutic parenting. Aspergers.
I don’t think KS was that bad and I am in the camp that says the weight concession did him.
He jumping was reasonable – even the last
The only serious doubt I had was coming out of the back straight when both KS and ED looked as though they were not going to see it through.MG’s jumping was very fluent.
For me Tidal Bay was the most impressive winner of the afternoon, winning with plenty in hand. Albertas Run was most disappointing and I think McCoy was lucky to keep the combination in tact. The first two jumps in the back straight on the final circuit were notably poor.
Katchit did enough but not enough to raise too much enthusiasm.
The handicap chase was a complete farce with half the fences being missed out. Why can’t courses time races to avoid the worse effects of the sun – or do they not expect it to be sunny in October?
I thought that this was going to be Monet’s Garden’s race, and was surprised to see him looking a bit tubby, but perhaps he’s a horse that carries a lot of condition. In my jumping prospects book the trainer states that the horse has run at Cheltenham four times without success, and goes on to say ‘whether he will go to Cheltenham is still under discussion’.
I cant have it that the weight concession was responsible for the two biggest concerns. Jumping and mid race enthusiasm…
Katchit had to give weight away too…. that looks like improved form to me through degas art’s last run against him (although yet to run the slide rule)
Nice meeting you last week Jeremy BTW
Reported on RUK that Monet’s Garden will miss Cheltenham and will be aimed at Aintree.
Colin
Just a brief summary.
I think this was a pretty easy race to read. I wouldn’t get too caried away with the winner as I think today was his day. He won because he sat close to the pace and the other two were never jumping well enough to make up the ground they deliberately surrendered early on. I would keep him at this trip.
As for Nicholls he was is in typically defensive mode – one day I wish an interviewer would light the touchpaper (perhaps Peter Naughton could oblige?) – and the fact that he said Kauto Star jumped ‘fantastically well’ probably renders anything else he said not worth repeating.
Katchit had to give weight away too…. that looks like improved form to me through degas art’s last run against him (although yet to run the slide rule)
My take on it exactly. I’m pretty sure Katchit wasn’t entitled to win this one at the weights, but by Christ his bottle got him out of bother. Full steam ahead for the Fighting Fifth, then.
Nice meeting you last week Jeremy BTW
Likewise. Soz for not hanging around long enough for the curry afterwards – Hitchin is a long way away from Richmond on a school-night. I’ll remember to ask Pruf to crash at his next time. I wonder if Glenn has stopped pointing in my general direction giggling "Guesty Man!" yet…
gc
Jeremy Grayson. Son of immigrant. Adoptive father of two. Metadata librarian. Freelance point-to-point / horse racing writer, analyst and commentator wonk. Loves music, buses, cats, the BBC Micro, ale. Advocate of CBT, PACE and therapeutic parenting. Aspergers.
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For me, that just wasn’t the same Kauto Star we saw last season.
I cannot recall him being pushed and cajoled, in any of his 6 races, at any stage, in the same way he was from a long way out in today’s race and, though he is a seriously good horse even on this latest showing, he lacked that sparkle that allowed him to travel, on all sorts of ground and at all distances, with the imperious ease of a true champion.
It may just be that he was undercooked, I hope so, as I couldn’t accept his trainer’s assertion that he needs further. He certainly showed no signs of it in this race last year or in the Tingle Creek, and to my eyes,(And supported by his RPR), his last 2 races, both his severest tests of stamina, were his worst 2 of the season.
Maybe that’s as good as he is – as it stands probably 10lbs better than any other chaser in training – I sincerely hope not, as everything he did last season indicated that he could be the best horse we had seen for a very long time.Maybe that’s as good as he is – as it stands probably 10lbs better than any other chaser in training – I sincerely hope not, as everything he did last season indicated that he could be the best horse we had seen for a very long time.
I’ve been of the assertion, for quite a while now, that KS was over-rated on the outrageous figures bounded around for him last year after his King George win. I always had him down at around 179 or so.
I actually remember discussions that compared him with the great Arkle, which I found laughable at the time considering he had never completed around Cheltenham and never come out of a chase without taking the roots out of one.
I still hold firm with my original opinion that KS is an above average chaser, comparable to the likes of Forgive N Forget. That’s not a disparaging comment, merely putting his form into some kind of X v Y context.
You are right. That probably is as good as he is, allowing for the fact that it was his first outing of the year. I’d be willing to give him another 3lbs for improvement as it was his first race. He looked a little bit rusty today. And he will probably be good enough to win another Gold Cup if the 2008 renewal is as weak as the 2007 race was. Regardless, he remains, for me, around 10lbs superior to Monets Garden on his best running.Kauto’s run didnt look like one that lacked fitness as much as him being a bit of a monkey dare i say. It seems he’s got a bit to prove again to be brutally honest.
I thought till now, his most impressive trip was actually two miles, with or without the spectacular blunder, which says so much as he’s won a gold cup!
It puzzles me that PN said he looks like a real three miler now! Is he REALLY saying KT has lost THAT much pace in a matter of months?
Are we talking about the same horse that used to take a healthy tug over ALL distances last season? PN ‘s comment translates to me as ”KT is in slight decline!”.
I hope the horse isnt getting his own ideas, he’s only seven!I was surprised to see Kauto Star not travel. I can understand him being outsped on the run in with the weight telling but the fact that he didn’t travel leaves a worry in the back of the mind. Monet’s Garden did as expected over two and a half miles at Aintree. Exotic Dancer was a disappointment, didn’t get into it at all. Will be better over further certainly and probably on softer ground but nevertheless he was too uncompetitive not to raise concern.
The only serious doubt I had was coming out of the back straight when both KS and ED looked as though they were not going to see it through.
over ALL distances last season? PN ‘s comment translates to me as ”KT is in slight decline!”.
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