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Flex, as said above moores chosen, ylang ylang, but aside from that, even if he though rar was a better horse, hes always selecting the horse rated 15lbs higher unless its an experience ride (which in this event it obviously isnt)
He wont have it wrong either mike, ylang ylang will win by half the track as her rating sais she should and if she doesnt, we could have the lowest rated winner of this…. Ever?
I want Ylang Ylang to win but pleased to see Beckett has booked James Doyle for Treasure.
I personally think Rubies Are Red is a bad price now, I know others are on at bigger. She’d got herself into a bad position at Lingfield in the first place which made her need to find that finishing effort, because she’s quite slow either physically or mentally or both. She’s Found’s sister which plays a part too but she’s also the sister of Magical Dream and Divinely and all those other Listed/Group 3 fillies that the mare produced. Found was probably a one of a kind. It was a bad trial, the winner would have been 8th or something like that on times compared to the boys trial which Ambiente Friendly turned into a procession. She might still place but she should probably be three times her price (my opinion of course) which would be closer to where You Got To Me and Treasure are.
On another note Ylang Ylang’s rating largely comes from her having the ability (and the opportunity) to win a Group 1 as a 2yo, which doesn’t apply to most of these as they needed longer trips and/or more time. The question is can she run up to it over 12F here? I suspect it could be a bit like the year Minding won it. Ylang Ylang is nowhere near Minding’s ability but the point is Minding didn’t run over the trip ever again because she wasn’t at her best in beating a truly dreadful Oaks field and she would have been found out at the trip in better company. She still won though through her class.
“Aslong as the trainer runs them against each other (which he categorially does) then its irrelevant where they come from,”
—————————-He’s going to run Diego Velazquez, Illinois and Portland in the Derby then, ham?
If they were trained and owned by different people they’d all be running at Epsom. Increasing the amount of quality in the Derby.,,,And didn’t Henry Longfellow and Diego run in the French Guineas?… As if they did not want to spoil their chance of having a potential Triple Crown winner at Newmarket.
Coolmore don’t seem to run as many of their best horses against each other these days. Of course there are some that do run against each other, but that is because Coolmore has so many of the best horses. They split a lot of them up so as to win more of the top races. Can’t blame them, I’d do the same if I were them..
If Opera Singer were trained by someone else she’d have missed the Irish Guineas and come here instead. But they have Ylang Ylang and Rubies Are Red and OS is effective at a mile anyway, so makes sense for them to divide them up. Decreasing the quality of The Oaks.
Value Is Everythingi too wish there was less negativity prior to the race; look back in a couple of months and if it wasn’t up to scratch then fair enough. Just looking at recent history and off relatively low ratings we’ve had the likes of Snowfall winning off 108, Enable off 107 and Taghrooda off 103. Even beaten horses like Emily Upjohn (110), Nashwa (107) and Tarnawa (101) have gone on to big race successes.
Ylang Ylang 50/1
Decided to read this thread from the beginning. That’s my bit of fun for the day. Sorry.
Can’t remember why the dam of EZALIYA (EZIYRA) was ruled out of the classics in her 3 year old season, I know Mr. Weld was dealing with a bad virus at one point but I thought that was a bit later on. She would have only had Enable to beat for this race.
I’ll wait around for a better price, if she goes out to 11/2 then I’ll play otherwise this is a watching brief. Also, is there doubts about YLANG YLANG staying 12f? I haven’t heard anything but I’m not convinced she will and the price isn’t reflecting my doubt.Eziyra’s first run at 3 was a listed race at Leopardstown on 8th June 2nd place as fav.
She was then 20/1 when taking on Enable in the Irish Oaks, beaten 7 1/2 lengths into 3rd.
She was also 3 1/4 lengths 3rd in the following season’s Yorkshire Oaks to Sea Of Class.There’s always a chance of Ezeliya not staying but if anything I’d say it may well bring about more improvement. I suppose there’s a possibility a strongly run race on soft might be too far for Ylang Ylang, but on breeding and the way she runs she should be much better suited by a normal 1m4f than the 1m of the Guineas.
I’m on both, but am also on Forest Fairy who imo would be the most suited of this field by an out and out test of stamina.
Value Is EverythingIf the expected rain arrives, there’s no more stoutly bred filly in the race then the CAUGHT U LOOKING.
The Noel Meade-trained Harzand filly is the fourth highest rated in the field and had subsequent Group 3 winners, Brilliant and Content, behind when landing the Weld Park Stakes as a juvenile.
She looked in need of the run when beaten on her reappearance in the Salsabil Stakes behind Ezeliya, but it wouldn’t be the greatest shock if she narrowed the two length defeat granted testing conditions over twelve furlongs.
It’s no surprise that the 66/1 has evaporated, and if the forecast rain continues to fall on Epsom then you can expect a trickle of cash to turn into a flood.
YLANG YLANG has already proven her ability to handle soft conditions and she’s been crying out for further. This Group 1 winning Frankel filly is a worthy favourite.
This guy is a machine. All he does is work out and pick winners. Talk about fit. You should see him without his shirt off, serious side of beef.
Yeah ginge but the pool of trainers to have every single horse owned by someone different is t a possibility, your always splitting them in the hopes of winning two guineas than one, if he ran all of them in the british guineas the result would have been what? The exact same as what it was…. So its completely invalid
Opera singer isnt here because she was injured earlier in the season and no trainer in all likelyhood is stepping what they view as there star 3yo from 7f-1m upto 1m4 round epsom with no prep…
So she wouldnt be here atall
The same way economics isnt going to the derby, whos he trained by again?
Staying is mostly about relativity anyway. Unless they literally stop on the spot then they are all capable of running 12F but to what level is the question and whether they show more ability over a different trip. At the moment Ylang Ylang has been deemed a 112 filly on her efforts over a mile which I’m sure everyone will agree is not her trip. If she improves even a few pounds on that then the others have an almighty gap to bridge in ability terms. They might make it and I do take the point that some of the other winners were lowly rated coming in but I thought Enable looked quite good at Chester, better than Forest Fairy did anyway and Snowfall romped home in the Musidora, again far more impressively than Secret Satire did. Something about Mr Beckett running 4 here tells me he knows this is a bad race and its a chance to get some major black type for all of them even if they aren’t up to winning. It could be easier getting placed in this Oaks than winning some of the lower graded races later on in the season.
Nobody knew what the result of the 2000 Guineas would be before the race, ham. Point is The Lads did not put those horses good horses in against City Of Troy.
If Opera Singer needed the run in the Irish 1000 then even more reason to let her have another week to be fitter… And a 5 times raced medium sized filly who’s already run and won a Group 1 easily… and clearly knows her job… Can not be compared with a big, cumbersome, only thrice raced colt who still ran green in the Dante. Can understand connections not running Economics in the Derby.
Opinions eh, ham.
Value Is Everything“Minding didn’t run over the trip ever again because she wasn’t at her best in beating a truly dreadful Oaks field and she would have been found out at the trip in better company. She still won though through her class.”
She also managed to win despite Moore giving her a poor ride, finding every bit of trouble possible.
I have backed Ylang Ylang antepost and I am still hopeful. My concern is I thought her effort in the 1000 Guineas rather petered out in the last half furlong. Maybe she will improve for the run, like a lot of Ballydoyle horses have this season. At the prices now, I think she is short enough.
Granted, Harzand is a strong influence for stamina, John. But the dam of Caught U Looking is an unraced half-sister to Abernant (Group 3) 6f winner Double Or Bubble. Albeit the latter was by Australian sprinter Exceed And Excel whereas Caught U Looking’s dam is by 8 to 10 furlong winner Mastercraftsman. So although I do expect Caught U Looking to stay 12f, I would not say she’s as stoutly bred as one or two here.
Caught U Looking was giving 3 lbs to the field in the Salsabil too. So although 4th, could in theory be rated as finishing alongside the second Purple Lily or even winner Ezeliya. That said, it wasn’t a strongly run race. Ezeliya probably at a positional disadvantage and her form is far less exposed than Caught U Looking. However, I can see your point about her having been a value bet.
Value Is EverythingMinding stayed 1m4f well. She didn’t run again at the trip because she was equally effective at shorter distances and The Lads had the odds-on fav for the Irish Oaks anyway. Even Song, winner of the Ribblesdale… And although Even Song did not sing in the Irish Version, it was won by another Coolmore filly. Seventh Heaven, who then took over the mantle of being Coolmore’s go to 12f filly… Winning the Yorkshire Oaks. Freeing up the better filly Minding to run in better races.
Although the horses Minding beat in the Oaks weren’t Group 1 winners, Architecture and Harlequeen were good enough to finish in the same places behind Seventh Heaven in that Irsh Oaks. So the Epsom version wasn’t that bad a race.
Value Is EverythingAnything is possible, but it always tempers my enthusiasm when the stable jockey passes it over. Even if logic said he always would.
Ylang Ylang’s form looks better than the rest here and the step up in distance looks likely to help, but the price is a fair reflection. The only one in the field with a genuine Group class performance to date.
With 4 places(1/5 odds) avaiable from some bookmakers I’ll go for 2 each-way:
Secret Satire 12/1 – Progressive and won well at York. Win on A/W at Lingfield suggests the trunnig track isn’t a problem.
You Got To Me 12/1 – Not sure that the Lingfield form is necessarily that strong but, given the price difference between this one and the second there Rubies Are Red, then there’s surely some value.
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