Nothing Gained 7

[Venture to Cognac]

Thanks Ham, and well done today.

Unlucky with Honeysuckle, she just looked very very good.

It’ll be hard etching Chacun tomorrow without a bet at 50’s this time, but I think he should do it. Good luck tomorrow with him.

[Venture to Cognac]

Thanks for that Sungold, I’ll have a look at him, seen a few mentions for him here and there. Good luck with him. I’ll have to cover him now myself lol

[ham]

Cheers vtc, yeah she was really good, i
Thought evs was a good lay, hindsight it clearly wasnt, miles clear of them, im kind of glad though, as i nearly took her on at 9/4!

Yeah that 50/1 chacun bet will forever haunt me, that being said i have a bit on him, but nothing substantial, will just be happy for him to win, been a champion since day one for me! Tough race though, sceau royal on that ground will place im sure, hes a grand little horse, greanateen at a massive price to place also, 6lbs less to give SR, reigning champs in there, quite a deep race theres nothing else currently that should be in there bar altior.

But really all about cps for me, a light betting day, but ill be heavily invested purely as a supporter!

Kilcruit cant go without mention, no ones ever convincing me with this sectional nonsense, that was a tool that day haha,

Good luck tomorrow mate! Will keep an eye out for whatever you have up in here

[Venture to Cognac]

Cheers mate, you too.

[Venture to Cognac]

Quick recap on yesterday.

Vintage Clouds was obviously a proper highlight, and the top up at 28’s made a huge difference.

Delighted with Escaria Ten and Galvin. Galvin’s obviously been a Notebook horse for me for three years now, so for him to win with a long ranger, particularly in a race I love, meant a lot.

I’ve not been rabbiting on about Escaria Ten, as long as Galvin, but it was good to see that performance from another Notebook horse. His run was not one to underestimate.

Two proper target horses for the yard, and they’ll feature in a few Antepost Bets for next year.

Great White Shark was less impressive, and it’s hard to find any excuses, other than she was in as pacemaker, and maybe not her real showing.

Zoffanien was average, but The Boodles isn’t really my thing, and he’ll probably/hopefully be my only “bet for the sake of a bet” at the meeting. There’s a promise I won’t keep.

[Venture to Cognac]

After the highs of yesterday, the usual script means today will be tough going. Unreal how often it goes like that, but I’ll give it a bash, but yesterday ensured it’ll be a winning week, so can relax a bit now, and just a few at bigger odds today.

Coral Cup
I’m going to stay loyal to Palmers Hill here. He looked top notch a couple of years back, and I really did think he’d progress, but clearly had his issues. His two runs this season, hardly offer encouragement, but if back on song that price will do for me. Win only, but also 7 Places as well.

There’s loads in there to be scared of, particularly those from the Mullins and Henderson yards.

I’ll add another outsider. I had a long look at Garo De Juilley and Dans Le Vent, but I think that Burbank could outrun his massive odds, and I’ll side with him just now, though I do like Garo as well.

Cross Country
Got out this unscathed Antepost. I managed to lay off Champagne Classic stake, and Shady Operator was NRNB thankfully.

I’ll probably spend the whole race watching Tiger Roll, so was going to sit it out, but I’ll go with Out Sam here, and hope that he can nick fourth.

Had some crazy bets in this the last few years, this will be a little more sedate.

I’d gladly give up Out Sam for a Tiger win, but I can’t be confident.

Grand Annual
This is my absolute worst race of the season. Had a look at my record in this, and a few other races where I thought my record was particularly poor, and this was miles my worst.

Never had the winner, and only two placed. Desperate stuff.

I’ve went with one who fits my usual approach, Or Jaune De Somoza, and as mentioned in first post, I also like Sizing Pottsie, who wouldn’t be my usual type. Took 33’s for Somoza, and hoping for same on Pottsie.

Burbank 125’s EW 7 Places
Palmers Hill 40’s EW 7 Places
Out Sam EW 4 Places
Or Jaune De Somoza 33’s EW 6 Places
Sizing Pottsie EW 6 Places

[TheKryptonFactor]

Best of luck VtC! Potters Corner w/o Easysland was going to be one of my bets of the week so gutted he’s out. Think Out Sam plugs on for 4th (no matter who is in the field, lol). Also wanted to back Theinval today, so that hasn’t gone well.

My 2 in the Coral Cup are Grand Roi & Our Power. Neither a strong view. Palmers Hill is simply a horse I’d forgotten about. Don’t rate Jonjo, but he’s actually having an ok season so maybe you are on to something.

[Venture to Cognac]

Thanks mate.

I think Potters would have been my choice today, shame he doesn’t go.

I think Sam is worth a small interest anyway, and I’m playing for fourth too.

Good luck in The Coral Cup. Great line up, and no surprise to me whatever wins. The market says Palmers Hill won’t be winning, but remain hopeful.

Good luck with your bets today.

[Venture to Cognac]

Nothing much doing today, with Burbank and Champagne Platinum not figuring, both were just average.

As for The Grand Annual. I just can’t do it. Two selections, two very different approaches. Both tailed off, and both were beat after halfway. I actually put a small bet on one the rags late on. He was tailed off too.

Unless anything stands out, I’ll sit it out next year.

Day was made though with Tiger Roll. What a horse, and I’m happy to say that I thought he was gone. I didn’t think he had another one like that in him, but he was just brilliant. What a horse he’s been, just an absolute legend.

[Venture to Cognac]

Hoping for a bit better tomorrow. As much as I love Day Three, it doesn’t make finding a winner any easier, and it looks very tough.

Pertemps
Champagne Platinum is the bigger return for me here. He was the one “win any race” bet that I had a decent bet on. I actually had The Coral Cup in mind when I bet him, but with a bet like that, you’re just happy to get a run. He was right in the notebook after The Kim Muir last year

No Comment is a decent bet as well, and happy with the 40’s. Easy to pick holes on him, but he might just surprise.

Milliner was a major eyecatcher at Navan, and I’d be amazed if he’s not in the shakeup. I’ve bet Kansas City Chief as well, but it’s bordering on sentimental, so I shouldn’t really include that in the list below, but he’s always on my radar for this, and he could sneak into the six.

Ryanair
Cracking renewal, with most of them holding a serious chance. Samcro is the one I’m most confident about, but I’d love Dashel Drasher to do it. This might be one attempt too many, but I’m hopeful. I’m not as confident about Tornado Flyer as I was a few weeks back, but happy with the price.

Stayers
It’s Cheltenham, so I must be betting The Storyteller. I really do give him a serious chance, and I’d love him to make the frame, while stablemate Sire Du Berlais should be bang there.

Sam Spinner is harder to make a case for. Delighted with the price, but that’s immaterial if he’s not back to where he was two years back. This season’s evidence offers little encouragement.

Plate
I’ve been a bit harsh on myself with this race. My record in it wasn’t as bad as I thought, and though it wouldn’t be difficult, it’s nowhere near Grand Annual territory. I might add Laskalin, but probably depend on earlier results. Sticking with Coole Cody and Happy Diva right now.

Kim Muir
Race lost a bit of spark with Time To Get Up not declaring, and thankfully I had cashed out my stake, with it being biggest bet of week.

Sizing at Midnight looked average after switching to Tizzards, but a different horse this season, and he impressed early doors. I’ll forgive his last run.

Cloudy Glen caught the eye at Chepstow, and happy to have him as backup.

Lot of bets compared to the last two days, so I’ll be laying off where possible. Definitely be laying Champagne Platinum before the off, and might be able to with Milliner. The rest will probably be in running.

Champagne Platinum 25’s (Any Race)
Kansas City Chief 66’s EW 7 Places
No Comment 40’s
No Comment 25’s NRNB
Milliner 20’s

Samcro 14’s
Tornado Flyer 95’s

Sam Spinner 560’s
Sire Du Berlais 16’s
The Storyteller 33’s EW

Coole Cody EW 6 Places
Happy Diva 25’s

Sizing at Midnight 33’s EW 6 Places
Cloudy Glen

[Venture to Cognac]

More bad than good today, but much better than yesterday, and a bit of wheeling and dealing, kept me afloat, and main damage was from The Ryanair.

Got out unscathed in The Pertemps more or less, as looking at what I had bet on the race, I layed off Champagne Platinum as planned. They all ran ok, bar the unseat of Kansas, and it’s hard to envisage any change of tactics resulting in them beating the winner.

The Ryanair wasn’t as good. Tornado got a great ride for a place, but the winner was in a different league. Dashel being a Non Runner wasn’t the biggest shock, but I really did fancy Samcro to bounce back, and he looks gone.

The Stayers wasn’t too bad. I laid off The Storyteller in running, which along with my lay on Bachasson last week, put me all square on the race. That was always the plan, as I had mentioned last week, he was a fair sized bet, and happy to at least take it back.

Finally The Plate delivered. Coole Cody was the main bet, and he was a decent EW at 28’s. Happy Diva never figured, and I was a wee bit disappointed that he couldn’t reward me EW.

The Kim Muir was agonising. Decent EW on Cloudy Glen at 33’s, just beaten by an amazing ride. He was a smaller bet than Sizing at Midnight, but always happy to make a profit on The Kim Muir.

Would have loved a winner, but a great days Racing, with some proper winners.

[Venture to Cognac]

Day Four is usually feast or famine, and not feeling it right now.

County
Ganapathi is the sensible selection at 6’s. Looks a bit obvious, but he’s looking fairly well treated.

Can’t believe Petit Mouchoir is only 10, feel as if I’ve been backing him as long as that. You’re really wanting an unexposed one in this, but Gainford takes seven off him, and having backed him for Champion Hurdle, I really have to bet him here. He’s still showing a fair bit of spark.

I’m happy to have three in this, and the plan to add Champagne Gold looks unlikely, as his price has plummeted. Le Patriote looks like one of those who looks good on paper. Looks well treated on his Champion Hurdle run, jockey takes seven off, he’ll like the ground, and he’s three pounds below last mark. I’m probably talking myself into it, and 90% I’ll bet him. Saves me deliberating over the JP trio of Drop The Anchor, Darasso, and Ciel De Niege.

Albert Bartlett
A lot simpler. On Stattler at 14’s Antepost, and hopeful of a good run.

Gold Cup
As I mentioned Day One, took a different approach this year, and been adding three horses to select lines since as early as March last year. Two of them have made it, and a couple of the lines are getting my nerves jangling. Been here before, and I know how it’ll end, so I’ve already cashed a few out.

As for the traditional approach, it’s went like clockwork really, and laid off Royal Pagaille to make a fairly decent profit (relatively speaking), after taking the 80’s for The Haydock/Cheltenham double. I’m not quite as keen on him now, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him a Non Runner in the morning. I’d be happy to be wrong of course. Frodon is a smaller bet from those profits from Royal Pagaille. I don’t think they’ll be near good enough, but they’ve been great to follow, and hoping for a respectable run.
Comfortably Green on the race whatever happens.

Hunters
Again, fairly straightforward. I think Wishing and Hoping is way overpriced, and I’ll top up my 33’s EW Antepost, with 50’s+ EW.

Mares Chase
Happy to take 16’s for Magic of Light, and I’m having a serious look at that 40’s for Cabaret Queen.

Martin Pipe
I’m usually quite strong on something for this, but Frontal Assault Win, and Mill Green EW are the picks. I also think Fabulous Saga could be a bit overpriced.

Ganapathi 6’s
Petit Mouchoir 28’s/33’s EW 8 Places
Stattler 14’s
Royal Pagaille 80’s (Double)
Frodon 14’s
Wishing and Hoping 50’s EW
Magic of Light 16’s
Frontal Assault 16’s
Mill Green 28’s EW 6 Places

[Venture to Cognac]

Well, the selections started well today, with Petit Mouchoir doing me proud again, but getting beaten by Belfast Banter who I put up here on Sunday, had me inventing a few new swear words. Three out, I was watching BB, and I got that sinking feeling. No idea why I didn’t bet him, and by the time I went to bet him in running, price was gone.

As expected, Royal Pagaille was not up to it, and I’m amazed he lined up. Frodon was his usual game self.

I wasn’t going to go over the Gold Cup horses I’d been betting for a year, but as a few on here knew, a quick word about them. Well, what can I say about Minella Indo? Well nothing really, as he wasn’t one of the three. A Plus Tard was one of them though, but I needed him to win, though decent returns on a few EW lines, to top up on my Gold Cup position. Great race for me this year, best since 2017.

For the record, the other two were Champ (FFS), and Carefully Selected (remember him). It’s given me some fun this approach, paying handsomely with Tiger Roll at Aintree and Cheltenham in 2019, but barely getting my cash back last year at Cheltenham. I think I’ll knock it on the head now.

Rest of the day was terrible, and nothing to write home about at all.

As for the week, I couldn’t lose on the week after Vintage Clouds and Galvin, and The Gold Cup really boosted the winnings nicely, but the number of losers in between was disappointing.

Continually changing the approach. Ditching those books I used to on The Gold Cup has really made a difference. Betting some outsiders at 400’s since August, only to see it not in the entries, is a sinking feeling I don’t miss.

I’ve touched on this before, but it’s all well and good having an Antepost here and there, but it can’t half blinker your views on the day, and the value and offers after Final Decs doesn’t half make some difference too. Got my six or seven horses to target next season, and I’ll only add any more if I see some exceptional prices. NRNB remains crucial, and only early doors will I consider the “Any Race” market which I tried this year, with indifferent results.

What’s better value? Wide Receiver 20’s any race, with a view to The Martin Pipe, or 10’s NRNB for the same race. Not difficult.

Highlights of the week for me, were Vintage Clouds, Galvin, and Tiger Roll. I’d like more than that.

Particularly low lowlights were Belfast Banter, Heaven Help Us (made shortlist for Coral Cup), and The Storyteller getting struck into. I really fancied him, and although initially disappointed, if all well with him, a good prep for Aintree.

Best performance of the week. No question Allaho. Unbelievable, I didn’t rate him that much, blown away.

Going forward, Heaven Help Us, and Dallas Des Pictons were two I’ve really taken out of the week.

Dallas Des Pictons looked completely gone, looked another Blow By Blow, but eyecatching run that.

They’re both on the Cheltenham list for next year, along with…..

Escaria Ten
Galvin
Gars De Sceaux
Magic Tricks
Pure Genius
Stattler
Time To Get Up

Quick look at a few for season ahead, and some of note

Irish National
Dallas Des Pictons
Janidil
Ontheropes
Stones and Roses

Topham
Easy Game
Livelovelaugh
Midnight Shadow

[thehorsesmouth]

Nice debrief Bobby. Agree regarding Allaho, phenomenal performance. I knew you would have been thrilled with Galvin, you’ve long been a supporter of that one and it was a classier NH Chase than we might usually get I think, but he proved well up to it. Hopefully he’s given his chance in Grade 1 company at Punchestown.

One of your lowlights, Belfast Banter, saved blushes of a similar nature for me. I really fancied Milkwood for the Betfair Hurdle and he was third on my shortlist today, I can live with him placing but it would have stung a little bit had it won having deserted him. If good ground at Aintree I would be interested in that one again, may be capable of even better if delivered later.

Escaria Ten – would you be thinking a quiet campaign before coming back for a handicap next year?

On the Irish National, the two I like are, not very original, The Big Dog and Latest Exhibition. I’m not sure if the latter will run there or the Powers Gold Cup but would be interesting for sure if running in the National. The Big Dog is being aimed at the race and looks to have a nice profile for it. At 16/1 I am tempted at this stage.

[botchy1]

Great to see you knock in a few V.

Must agree with you about the ante post thing, i would much prefer to do a few and wait for NRNB to kick in like you say. Looks like being a great end of the season to look forward to, the next 6 weeks or so

[Venture to Cognac]

Tommy, that 16’s could look good tomorrow if Screaming Colours runs well at Uttoxeter.

As for Escaria, just love him, the type I love to follow. I think he’s got loads of room for improvement, and of course a higher mark, but so did Cause of Causes, and Tiger Roll at this stage.

I’m not 100% where I think he’ll go. He’s only 7, could go anywhere. I think that both Escaria and Galvin could cut it in Graded Company (again like CoC and Tiger), but a similar targetted approach could really be a money spinner for them. Graded possibilities aside, Galvin must be a serious Cross Country contender, but couldn’t rule out Escaria either.

[Venture to Cognac]

Sorry Botchy, I completely missed your post. Thanks, and same to yourself, sure you’ll have watched Jeff Kidder back a few times.

Yeah, still loads to look forward to, plenty of big races still to come.

Yup, always changing the Antepost thing. I don’t think there’s much wrong with a few around this time of year, for 12 months on, but it’s the ones during the following months that are crazy.

NRNB is vital. This was the first year I did “any race” bets for more than one selection. None of them made it. Have to be some price for me to be tempted to do that again.

I’ve really cut down on the “bets for the sake of a bet”, but could still do with tweaking at the same time.

[Author]

Posts