November 13, 2020 at 18:31 #1510563
Another great Saturday, but really tough as well.
Today’s card was desperate at Cheltenham, but the action much better tomorrow.
In the opener I really like dual winner of the race, What A Moment. It’s questionable if he retains old ability after a layoff, but at the same time, he did show something here last year. Rock bottom mark. Happy enough with 8’s. I doubt he’ll drift from current 7’s, but if he did, I’d go in again.
My old pal Gumball is the outsider in the 1340. Still not enamoured with him going chasing, but after an entirely predictable, error strewn round at Uttoxeter, he was a lot better next time. I think he might outrun current odds without winning
Best Paddy Power Gold Cup I can remember. Still haven’t bet Brelan D’As, but definitely will be.
Later on the card, Weather Front looks like he’ll benefit from the step up in trip, while I thought the 20’s Antepost for Lord Lamington was far too big, but it appears to be holding.
The card at Punchestown is a cracker too.
Looking forward to my Arkle hope, Felix Desjy running, but far too short tomorrow.
The last couple of “Midnights” I’ve put up on this thread, have been given the kiss of death, but Midnight Run, who really fell away last year, is back out in the opener. The small matter of Asterion Forlonges to overcome, but I think he’s a fair old price at the current 10’s. I’m undecided with him, I’ll see how the market goes. Bit of blue about, and I’m tempted. If he was to progress to a level I expected, then he’s maybe one for NH Chase.
The Alanna Homes Handicap is a cracker. I don’t like betting in these races when Mullins has clearly targeted it. No bet at the moment, but I’m interested in the price of Castlebawn West, and also the outsiders The Long Mile & Spades Are Trumps. I’ll also be watching rank outsider Stone and Roses, who I think could pop up somewhere at a price this year. I might bet him blind when he’s a price this year. Still undecided on this race, but he’s currently 66’s.
1305 What A Moment 8’s
1340 Gumball 12’s
Paddy Power – Brelan D’As 20’s EW 6 Pl
1450 – Weather Front 14’s
1525 – Lord Lamington 20’s EW 4plNovember 13, 2020 at 18:38 #1510565
Can’t let today’s action go without mentioning Tiger Roll.
He’s been a shadow of himself since the 2019 National.
I’d obviously like to be wrong on that, but it’s four years now since “that” run in The Munster National, a run which turned out to be quite important to me, and he can’t keep it going.
He’d have won The Gold Cup at his peak, no question about that, so that run today is pretty far removed from that level.
I really really want to see him go out in one piece, and hopefully he’ll be retired sooner rather than later.November 14, 2020 at 14:12 #1510677
Paddy Power Gold Cup
Brelan D’As, Slate House, Siruh Du Lac
20p Combination Forecasts and Tricasts
-£145.60November 15, 2020 at 12:21 #1510780
Nothing much to write home about yesterday, and in keeping with tradition, it continues to be a tough meeting for me.
Got a really nice profit in running from Gumball, and it could’ve been enough to scrape a profit, if it wasn’t for my bet on What A Moment, who was biggest bet by far. I was up against it after he got stuffed.
November always a tough month anyway for me traditionally, so hopefully scale it back till Newbury a week on Saturday.
Decent cards at Cheltenham and Punchestown today, though hardly betting cards for me, so I’ll stick with The Greatwood. Was only supposed to be win bets, but Skybet kept the 6, so that made a difference with the Martin horse. If he runs well, and gets me money back, I’ll definitely back Mr Everest later on at Punchestown.
Tudor City 66’s EW 6 PlacesNovember 15, 2020 at 14:38 #1510811
Harambe, Tudor City, Ballyandy
20p Combination Forecasts and Tricasts
-£148November 21, 2020 at 02:50 #1511508
Crazy days Racing today, interesting races all over the place, but the combination of……
Too many fancies
Short enough prices
….means that bets will be thin on the ground.
The 1965 Chase see’s my early King George bet, Real Steel back out. I’m on him at 40’s, so I need a big run today, and I’m hopeful. I’ve just watched back his Gold Cup run there, and it’s even better than I remembered. Fingers crossed. Stablemate Black Corton definitely the forgotten horse though. Very dangerous to write him off.
In the 1330, Midnightreflection was far too big at 16’s, but she’ll stay as a System only bet today, and can’t justify her on this thread, going by her last effort.
The Hurst Chase is too tricky for me, but Drumconnor Lad appeals at the prices.
The big race of the day is obviously The Betfair Chase. I still think that the 14’s for Lostintranslation for The Gold Cup is madness. Still not taken it mind you. I’ll try to enjoy this without any financial interest, Cheltenham related or otherwise. At 33’s, I can’t quite rule out Bellshill either.
The Stayers Hurdle is a belter. I bet The Jam Man at 25’s in the home straight as he was romping home in The Troytown, but cashed out, and waited for confirmation. Wasn’t a big bet at 25’s, and happy with decision. Made sense. Also with Main Fact at 8’s. With The Stayers Hurdle at Cheltenham the main focus of my Antepost betting this year at Cheltenham, I’m considering adding the pair of them. I like Justatenner as an outsider today.
If I knew Dashel Drasher was definitely back out this season, he’d have been my star horse in The Ten To Follow. As it is, he’s up against another TTF horse of mine, Master Tommytucker. I’m hoping Tommy stays on his feet, and I’m hoping Dashel is in full working order. Both too short for me today. I’d settle for the pair of them battling it out.
The 1240 is getting sat out too, as I like no less than five of them…
Deise Aba – Promising sort who I can see stepping up and developing into an Aintree horse, or a Welsh National type.
Sams Adventure – Surely better than last run
Pop Rockstar – weighted to run big race.
Claud and Goldie – Low profile sort, but would be my pick at the prices
Commodore – Desperate last year, possibly got an issue, but if over that, looked excellent the season before last.
The 1350 sees Umbrigado on this card again, after an excellent effort in The Stayers Handicap Hurdle last year. Very interesting that he swerves that in favour of this, as he had an entry.
The finale sees the highly unpredictable Midnight Tune running at a price, and interesting for a yard bang in form, but Perfect Candidate catches the eye too.
Midnightreferendum was excellent on her chasing debut. She’s in the 1248, but she’s been inconsistent in the past. I’m hoping for another big run, but certainly won’t be betting her.
The 1302 sees Fakir D’oudairies, Notebook, and Cash Back. Should be cracking race.
The 1337 sees my big Grand National hope, Any Second Now make his season debut, and it’s over hurdles. Best horse in the field, on a nice mark, and won’t scupper his chance for Aintree. Just the question of whether or not he’ll be ready, and I also like Mary Frances and Ten Ten.
The 1412 sees Stattler running, and I think he could be worth following. A very interesting horse for me going forward. Definitely one for the notebook.
The 1447 sees Princely Conn running. He was brutal last year, but I like the jockey booking, and his final run last season was his best. He ended up “detatched”, rather than “tailed off”
Last but not least, the 1522 sees a big notebook horse of mine, Janidil. Really like this horse, but short enough price, and it’s a hot race.
What a day……no idea what to bet, and what not to bet. No option but to sit back and enjoy, with limited financial interest, though I’ll maybe add to this quartet.
Stayers Handicap Hurdle
The Jam Man 10’s
Main Fact 8’s
Justatenner EW 6 Places
Princely ConnNovember 21, 2020 at 14:20 #1511584
Betfair Stayers Handicap
The Jam Man, Justatenner, Main Fact
20p Combination Forecasts and Tricasts
-£150.40November 21, 2020 at 15:32 #1511606
Perfect Candidate, Midnight Tune
80p Reverse Forecast
-£152November 22, 2020 at 01:11 #1511663
Much much better today, and it was a good idea to sit most of out.
Delighted with how Main Fact dug that out, and the only pair I added to the original quartet were Midnight Tune and Perfect Candidate. Thought the forecast was going to land for a while, but I was happy enough with Perfect Candidate at 9’s.
Other highlights were Master Tommytucker and Janidil.
Janidil should have plenty of options now, but how good was Tommytucker? If he can stay on his feet, he’s a very very good one.November 24, 2020 at 00:58 #1512044
Waiting Patiently 20’s EWNovember 26, 2020 at 19:55 #1512225
Really good card at Newbury tomorrow.
The highlight is obviously The Long Distance Hurdle. I’ve followed McFabulous since Day One, and it’s been great to see him progress. More than happy with my 20’s for The Stayers, so no need to bet him tomorrow.
I’ve bet a couple though. Sam Spinner has gave me some fun the last couple of years, and he’s as good as most of these on his “A” Game. The big worry is his last run. Connections put it down to fences, but I’m a bit wary that he wasn’t actually right. Genuine worry that. Still, the 25’s was unreal. He either goes close or pulls up I reckon.
I’ve also went with Honest Vic. He was the one I wanted Antepost, but I thought I’d wait, just in case.
The 1425 is a cracker too. Cepage is an old favourite, but the ground is a concern. He is well treated though. In the end though, I went with Fidux, who was a late absentee for The Paddy Power, and San Benedeto, who is very definitely my main bet tomorrow. Think both should run decent races.
In the next, Lil Rockerfeller is hard to justify against less exposed types, but he’s swerved Haydock for this, he’s on a handy mark, and Cobden a decent booking.
1425 – San Benedeto 9’s
1425 – Fidux
1500 – Sam Spinner 25’s
1500 – Honest Vic 18’s
1535 – Lil RockerfellerNovember 27, 2020 at 16:52 #1512315
Well, Honest Vic was a washout, while at least I called Sam Spinner right. He looks nowhere near over his setback, and the excuse for his poor show in The Charlie Hall looks even dafter now.
Much better in the other two races, with the 1425 breaking even. San Benedeto was a fair old bet, and I comfortably got that back in running.
Lil Rockerfella broke my heart in the last. I got 25’s, and although I made a very decent profit in running, I’d really really liked to have had the win obviously. Bittersweet that one.November 28, 2020 at 00:04 #1512359
Main hope Saturday is Beware The Bear in the big one, The Ladbroke Trophy. Has ran well in this before, and though not waited to necessarily improve spades, I’m hopeful of a decent run, and he’s a decent sized bet. Got him to 5 places, and may take 6 pls as back up.
I bet Mister Malarky, but cooled on him a little, and I couldn’t cash out. Once Regal Encore declared, I just couldn’t desert him, but he’s a much smaller bet. He’s been very good to me. I’ll lay off Malarky if I can.
In the supporting card, I really like the prospect of Champagne Platinum this year, after he fair caught the eye in The Kim Muir. Could see him winning later in the year, with tomorrow maybe not the day, but he’s a fair price.
I’m tempted by Brelan D’As as well on the card, but his run at Cheltenham was a concern.
I haven’t made my mind up in The Rehearsal at Newcastle. I’ve decided to bet Takingrisks, but I’m equally keen on Shantou Village and Cool Mix, so not sure how to play it yet.
At Fairyhouse, very interested to see how At The Acorn gets on, and Timoteo is a horse I’m very interested in this year too. Acorn is a big Notebook horse this year, and sane might just apply to Timoteo. As it is, not made up my mind, and only horse I’ll definitely be with in Ireland is Mc Alpine at a big price.
1350 Newbury – Champagne Platinum
1446 Fairyhouse – Mc Alpine EW
Ladbroke Trophy – Beware The Bear 33’s EW
Ladbroke Trophy – Regal Encore 60’s
Ladbroke Trophy – Mister Malarky 25’s EW
Rehearsal – TakingrisksNovember 28, 2020 at 14:07 #1512445Lemons68Participant
- Total Posts 481
Great thread as usual. Some crazy winners again I see, good stuff BobNovember 28, 2020 at 14:54 #1512461
Cheers Mark, been unreal mate.
Beware The Bear, Regal Encore, Mister Malarky
20p Combination Forecasts and Tricasts
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.