- This topic has 549 replies, 17 voices, and was last updated 7 years, 8 months ago by
.
- Posts
Delighted to hear that.
Remember talking about him way back 2016 before the 4 miler,he was a big winner for you at that meeting,not always about the gambling side.Most of us can regurgitate form when required,but there is that 10% factor,the ability to spot something in a run style,a particular set of conditions,where connections may next place a horse.
You have that in bundles,very rare gift,testament to all those write ups.This is a game where we all have to live with failure more often than not,the nature of the beast,learning to deal with that is the hardest part in some ways.
That scatter gun approach of yours took me a long time to appreciate,but it works for you,long may that continue.
Watching those replays back is huge part of the puzzle,not always the fun part if we get it wrong,but you know my feelings on this,the select few we know elsewhere have one thing in common,they all put the work in.
4 decent looking days this week,couple entered at HQ that I have been waiting for,and the scottish meeting looks none too shabby,targeted by a couple southern trainers in particular.
X-country, back to Aintree,gentle early season campaign,that would be my guess,with one thought for you to ponder over that long hot summer near the tundra……I think he’s much better on decent ground.
Catch up soon……..expect you will be forcing the lid down on the war chest until the wee hours
@FlyersNap
Thanks for that Flyers, much appreciated. Always try to “Route Plan” some horses, and for every Cause of Causes and Tiger Roll, there’s a Captain Von Trappe or Flaxen Flare right around the corner, so you have to enjoy the good ones. Saturday was a good one.Tiger has been a fascinating one to follow, and that was a long term plan which went like clockwork. My one real gripe in the build up was people, particularly on the other place, citing his run in The Irish National as a negative for Aintree. That was the day that cemented him as my #1 National Horse, and I **** you not, I had my first bet on him for this years National during that race, long before Our Duke crosses the line. Funny thing is though, even now that he’s getting the plaudits, and his three Festival wins are getting discussed, there’s still no mention of that Munster National win. That was the one that got me. Totally blew me away. I didn’t bet him that day, and I sometimes wonder to spot these things, that they have to beat one of yours, very much like the day Cause of Causes sprinted away from my selections at Ascot.
Then you have Elliot. Fascinating. He’s plotting horses for Non-Handicaps, all adds to the puzzle.
Season nearly done, but totally agree, cracking looking cards at Ayr, and still Sandown and Punchestown, great way to bring things to a close.
Two selections at Cheltenham on Thursday, and both in the same race. Midnight Jazz is a horse who I know well, and tomorrow looks a realistic opportunity, while I’ve been keeping an eye on Indian Stream all season, after getting some lofty entries, and she appears to have loads going for her too. 18’s and 14’s the pair is too big, and I’ll top up if they go bigger.
1515 Cheltenham
Midnight Jazz, Indian Stream
£1 Reverse Exacta-£368.17
Saturday see’s Ayr take centre stage, and it’s a great card for Scottish National Day. Always been a lucky race for me, with loads placed, but just dawned on me tonight, I haven’t actually bet the winner since Hello Bud in 2009. That ain’t so good, and I’d love to turn that round, but isn’t going to be easy.
Scottish National
I’m pleased that Fagan has made it here, and he’d definitely be the main fancy. There should be no excuses with the conditions. Likewise Vicente, I originally intended him to be a saver, but as I’m not quite going to hit my limit on this, I’ve topped up.I just like Sizing Tennessee, I think he’s a late bloomer, and been chipping away the last 48 hours. I’ve also topped up on him each way at 16’s with 6 places up for grabs.
That should be more than enough, but I’ll be watching Sizing Codelco in running, ground could be key for him, though the suspicion is there, that he’s being prepared for next term.
Fagan 12’s to 16’s
Vicente 9’s and 10’s
Sizing Tennessee 20’s
Sizing Tennessee 16’s EW 6 PlacesThe rest of the card is strong too, and here’s very brief thoughts.
1345
He’s cost me a few quid this year, but really, on this ground, and off of 141, Foxtail Hill must surely be overpriced at 20’s1420
I’ve high hopes for Dingo Dollar, and I thought he’d be popular, but he’s been easy to back. He must have a chance at around 6’s, while the fact that Impulsive Star runs here, with Sandown a week away, well that just might be a tip in itself. Braquer D’Or made the frame behind Total Recall at Newbury, and from a top yard, he’s a player. If you judge Shades of Midnight on his run in The Towton, rather than The NH Chase, then he might surprise. Hard race to call, and not made a decision yet.Scottish Champion Hurdle
Happy with my 16’s on Beyond The Clouds, and he’ll do for me, but these three worry me….Midnight Shadow
Flying Tiger
Chesterfield1530
Short enough for me, but keen on Peregrine Run.1640
I remember Jimmy Breekie running well here a couple of years back, and kept an eye on him ever since, though don’t think I’ve actually bet him. 16’s, on this ground, looks a nice ew price.1755
Always a toughie, but I thought that Senior Citizen would be single figures, so from connections who’ve already won here at this years meeting, I have to be with him, and he’s around 16’s.Elsewhere, Tony Curtis is very interesting at Newbury, and I think he’ll have a big season, while on some of last years run, I’m amazed you can get 16’s on Bolder Bob at Thirsk.
No idea how to play this lot. Too many to bet as singles, and too many to perm. I’ll be perming some of them, but no closer to whittling them down, and hoping to get down to only five or six of them.
I’ve had to back Racing Europe [sp] under the ‘why the hell are they running this horse’ system [it did throw up Jaqueline Quest in the Guineas a few years ago albeit disqualified…]….
I did back the winner in my scattergun approach [Old Vic’s in staying chases] and I backed the Midnight horse at 33/1 [congrats on the 66/1!]. I needed to win something as I was just about to back a horses in the first at Newbury that Rory had put in a good word, for when the my WH account started playing silly buggers and it darn well won at 50/1. I’d tried to put the bet on three times and then the race started. Needed something to cheer me up after that! Sickener….
Sorry Moe, missed this post. Thanks, that 66’s was one of the highlights of the year, and very much like Tiger Roll last weekend, it rescued a very disappointing meeting.
Well done on the 33’s, and commiserations on that 50’s, that really is a sore one. T
Well, Punchestown, Perth, and Sandown coming up, and the partys nearly over for another year, but what a week to bow out on.
Should be some meeting, but it looks as if it’ll mainly be perms for me this week, not betting every race, as been riding my luck the last two big meetings.
It’s Punchestown, so that can mean only one thing, I’m betting Enniskillen in the first race of the meeting, for what seems like the 10th year in a row. Far too short to bet on his own, but although the old boy will clearly be vulnerable to younger legs, he’ll make the perms. Smashing horse.
It’s Punchestown, so that can mean only two things. I’ll be betting Western Boy. One of my favourites, and been putting him up regularly for these big meeting for what feels like 10 years. In reality, probably only a couple of years, but he’s bound to be trying, and I’m on 14’s win, and 11’s ew to 6 Places. It’s a cracker of a race, and I’ve covered Joey Sasa, and Ben Dundee at nice prices.
In The Champion Chase, I’m with Ordinary World at 50’s each way, and hoping he gets his jumping sorted, and that he can make the frame. Not totally out the question. He’s my only other single of the day……..so far.
These guys will make the perms, though I can’t possible rule out more…….
Paloma Blue
That’s A Given
Youcantcallherthat
Final ListI’ve added YCCHT in The Growise, as it’s such a hot race, that I really couldn’t split five or six of them, and who knows, she could scrape a place at 66’s. Ok, maybe not, but she’ll do for me with the allowance.
Evening Fella
Well done weekend,another big hit.
Thats me for punchy after today,watched it back a fair few times,gets worse everytime.Had a hunch that Monbeg might be ok on todays ground,Ronald gives it a few taps and it flies after the last,one for next season,does he go both ways I wonder.
Keep an eye on yours,your on a roll
Morning Mate,
yeah, was a big hit for me that one, and I really needed it, as everything else was getting stuffed.
Yeah, it just doesn’t look good, does it? I can’t take a 100% stance on it, but I’m a fairly cynical person, and there’s going to have to be a pretty decent explanation, otherwise it won’t be good enough. “Brain Fart” would be the only acceptable one.
Totally agree with Monbeg. You don’t win a Thyestes in those conditions, without having something underneath, and he’s a horse to note for next season, I’m certain about that.
No joy yesterday, but thankfully only Western Boy, and Ordinary World were bet, with the other two in the big hurdle to a much lesser extent. No excuses for either.
Highlights of the day were UDS winning, and Enniskillen getting up from his fall.
As for today, well the first is a toughie, but I’m definitely betting Man Of Plenty, that 25’s is a crazy ew price, and I’ll have Killaro Boy as well. Man of Plenty can totally take a hand here, really interesting that he’s made the journey. The 11’s for Killaro Boy, had to be taken early. Been keeping tabs on him, and he just looks one that’s going to be worth following. This is the type of race I had in mind.
In the 1655, I do like Jetz, he’s fairly solid, but that 9’s on Delta Work looks very good, and I’ll have a good go at that, serious ew bet that.
Cracking renewal of The Punchestown Gold Cup, and although it looks like Road To Respect has it to lose, I’m hopeful of big runs from Sandymount Duke, and Sizing Granite. Edwulf let them get away in The Gold Cup, he should have been closer, and he’s a cert saver.
I really wanted to have a play on The Guiness Handicap Ante-Post, but it was just too tough. It’s not much easier with final decs. My type of race, one to get stuck into, but I still have a big shortlist…..
Shanahans Turn
Viconte Du Noyer
Devils Bride (big price)
Oscar Knight
Clarcam
Jetstream Jack..could all be easily bet, but in the end, I’ve went for Champagne West, and Woodlands Opera. As I’ve mentioned a few times, Champagne West’s win in The 2017 Thyestes, was the best performance of the season, and I refuse to believe they’ve not had a plan with him, and I refuse to believe that that he’s as bad as he’s looked this year. Well worth a risk, and Woodlands Opera is just too big, I thought he’d be favourite, and he’ll love this.
As usual this week, any ew’s will be with maximum place concessions.
Away from Punchestown, I’m looking forward to seeing Callet Mad at Perth, I think he could be decent over fences, and I’m delighted I didn’t bet him Ante-Post for The Bet365 Gold Cup. There is a cracker of a race at Epsom. In the opener, there are four horses who really catch the eye. We know where we are with Pettochside, and Boom The Groom, but they’re both very nice types, who are often too big, while Midnight Malibu is a proper horse who’s won me plenty, and I think Justanotherbottle could be very good over the next couple of years.
Main Bets
Man of Plenty ew
Killaro Boy win
Delta Work ew
Sandymount Duke 66’s ew
Sizing Granite 100’s
Sizing Granite 66’s ew
Champagne West ew
Woodlands Opera win
Midnight Malibu win
Justanotherbottle win1410 Epsom
Justanotherbottle, Midnight Malibu, Boom The Groom, Pettochside
20p Forecasts, 10p Tricasts1540 Punchestown
Man of Plenty, Killaro Boy
50p Reverse Forecast1730 Punchestown
Sandymount Duke, Sizing Granite, Edwulf
1840 Punchestown
Champagne West, Woodlands Opera, Devil’s Bride
2 x 20p Combination Forecasts, and Tricasts-£395.97
Shame about Man of Plenty; what a win that would have been for the trainer. I think I’ve backed him every time he’s ran this season and he always runs his race. On the plus side, I backed Prince Garyantle at 33/1 not once but three times as it often looks as if my bet hasn’t gone through and, as I’m only betting 2 pence ew I sometimes risk clicking on it again. Only backed it because it was blue across the board on oddschecker this morning.
Nice one Moe, though I wish we had been celebrating a Man Of Plenty win, that would have been very nice, and one of my few decent results this week. Missing out on the forecast with Killaro Boy was painful.
Been a cracking weeks racing, but not too much going on here.
Wednesday was poor selections wise, but a brave run from Man of Plenty, certainly reduced the deficit, and I was very pleased with that.
Didn’t bet much Thursday, but I did come through unscathed, thanks to Mr Fiftyone, who I had ew 25’s and 33’s, while a late bet on Neverushacon went close, but sadly I only had him win only. I had a few quid on Jack Dillinger in that race too, but he was never sighted, while I also chanced Folsom Blue, but not to be.
Down on the week definitely, but Thursday was much better, and Man Of Plenty has stopped me raising the white flag, as my season draws to a close. Delta Work helped too. The forecast with Killaro Boy would have made a huge difference.
I really enjoy the Friday, and Saturday of Punchestown, and as it’s been a great season for me, and with only two days left, I might just throw caution to the wind a bit now.
I’m a wee bit behind schedule, what with the IT Nightmare yesterday, and I’m just in from work, so I won’t ramble on, but these will be Friday selections. Delta Work is in there, though not convinced I want him to run, and wouldn’t be upset if he was a Nonner. As usual, the each ways will be with maximum place concessions.
1620 The Wests Awake ew 25’s
1620 Conrad Hastings ew 33’s
1655 Slowmotion win 6’s
1805 Delta Work ew 20’s
1840 Top Wood win 7’s
1910 Riders On The Storm win 8’s
1910 Causey Arch win 16’sLeast said about the selections yesterday, the better. Been a tough old week, and a terrible Punchestown for me so far. Very much like Aintree, and Ayr, I’m not just getting them wrong, I’m getting them very wrong. It may be a good thing that this is the last day of my season.
On the plus side, Aintree and Ayr gave me a big winner to bring me out ahead, despite the losers, so if lightning could strike a third time, that would be smashing.
So, last day for me, but what a day, and the racing at Punchestown, and Sandown, is great, and plenty for interest.
At Sandown, I’m on Theatre Guide & Minella Daddy Ante-Post at 40’s, and 33’s, while I’ve also added Domesday Book at 50’s. All each way obviously at those prices. Domesday is a bit of a stab, but if he’s good to go after the layoff, that’s too big a price. It’s easy to say that Theatre Guide is out of form, he’s certainly had two howlers, but he can be forgiven a first fence fall last time. I’m looking at his run in The Badger Ales this season, the ability is still there, and having gone so close in this last year, has this been the plan? Minella is a horse who I’ve gave many many mentions to, and I’ve said many times that he could be a National Horse, and he’s another who’s whole season could be geared round this prize?
In the opener, I’ll side with Taxmeifyoucan. Trainer placed him well at Haydock on the flat in the autummn, and his run last time was encouraging. Plenty to like and he’s a nice price at 20’s, though it is a tough race. Brian Hughes booked, it’s a fair old journey for the trainer, and I’d love to see him place, regardless of how tough this looks.
In the 1640, my eye was drawn to Geordie Des Champs, considering the return to form last weekend for Rebecca Curtis, but I just think that conditions look A1 here for Midnight Shot, and I took the 16’s each way. More than capable, and I feel he can threaten here, despite being the outsider of the pack. As I always say, I don’t put “Midnights” up on this thread lightly, and quietly confident of him going close.
That’ll do for Sandown, so on to Punchestown.
The 1435 sees two Alan Fleming horses who interest me, in Hurricane Darwin, and Sammy Black. I thought that Hurricane was being primed for something like this here, earlier in the season, though he’s hardly confirmed that lately. I thought Sammy was destined for the top a few years back, but he’s had setback after setback, and we never got to see how could he would have been. I do think he shaped well over the course though in that race Hurricane ran in, and though highly unlikely, he does look a sporting choice at 40’s with 4 Places up for grabs. I don’t want to add to the growing list of losers this week, but as it’s last day of the season, why not, and it’ll give me an interest.
My eyes will be everywhere in the 1510, as there are so many likely ones, but in the end, I’ll settle for Sutton Manor, and Kylecrue. The Elliot horse is too big at around 14’s, I thought he ran very well for a long way at Fairyhouse, and was travelling well in his previous race when he came down. I think he’s a potential Aintree horse, and 14’s is way generous. Kylecrue is the forgotten horse. A real chance off this mark, and will love conditions. Happy to chance him at 25’s, and the 4 Places helps.
I’ll chance Midnight Tour at around 12’s in the mares, but I’m not convinced she’ll repeat her Cheltenham heroics.
The 1700 is very much like the 1510, and again, my eyes are everywhere. I’ve high hopes for Daklondike, and a wee bit surprised that they took this option, but he looks worth a chance here, and 13-2 seems fair. The outsider of the field is Woods Well, and though way off the boil, I think he’s worth a chance here at crazy odds, and 50’s win, and 40’s ew with the extra place is enough to tempt me. Happy to see Rachel Blackmore booked.
The 1735 is a minefield, but I’ll side with Blackmore again, and the 20’s available for Uradel looks huge, especially with 6 places up for grabs. I’ll almost certainly add something else, and Swamp Fox, Diamond King, and Voix Du Reve, are all in my sights. I might wait and see though how the rest of the day goes before I add any of those. If it’s like the rest of the week, I won’t be taking any of them lol
Last bet of season for me….
1735 Punchestown
Joey Sasa, Swamp Fox, Voix Du Reve
20p Combination Forecasts, and Tricasts-£417.97
Well that was that, and it’s the end of another season, and as per, I’m looking forward to a wee break. Royal Ascot to Punchestown is as a fair old trek. As enjoyable as it was, this is definitely the perfect time for a break, with not much racing to catch my interest until Royal Ascot.
Before going on to the horses, quick observations about The Racing Forum. It continues to go from strength to strength, though it did actually test me this season. I nearly chucked it November to December. The creation of needless threads continues to grate, and the sooner the “merge” function returns, the better. The biggest problem though, was of course, the “quoting”. It was my call to disable it, and I pressed Corm on this for some time. Quite frankly, it got out of control, and was rendering most threads unreadable. The Betvictor Gold Cup thread was the final straw, with one entire page almost being made up entirely of quotes. People were quoting 70+ lines of text, with a one line reply attached…….crazy. Furthermore, there was one week, where three new threads were created, and the second post quoted the entire opening post. I don’t even know where to begin with the stupidity of this, and thankfully it can’t be done any more. Quite simply, the quoting became an illness on here, as melodramatic as that sounds. People weren’t “quoting”, they were just repeating what had already been said, and it nearly finished me off. There’s still the issue with people “repeating what they’ve said”, by copying and pasting previous posts, but hopefully this irritating practice will stop too. Anyway, rant over.
On to the horses, and what can I say about this season, well, after the last two, I went into this season full of trepidation. The last two seasons were incredibly successful for me, and with luck playing such a big part in this game, I reckon I had used mine up. Not a bit of it though. 16/17 was my second most successful season ever, and I managed to beat it, with plenty to spare. A lot of that was to do, obviously, with Tiger Roll. More of him later.
My season, as it always does, started with Royal Ascot. It was a losing one, as it nearly always is. Thankfully though, it was a cracker. The 2016 Royal Ascot was dismal, with little talking points, or stand out performances. Not this year though, and 2017 gave us a week to remember, with marvelous performances, and plenty to whet the appetite for the main part of the flat season.
The flat was very good to me this season. I had my moments at Glorious Goodwood, not least Master The World at 33’s in The Betfred Mile, while The Ebor meeting continues to go from strength to strength. York deserve a fair bit of credit for the meeting they put on. It’s a fantastic weeks racing, and I look forward to it more and more every year.
Highlight of the flat though was Dolphin Vista at 50’s in The Cambridgeshire. I had a decent go on him, and he basically guaranteed me a winning season in one fell swoop. As sad as it is, I’ve watched that race back 50+ times, something I normally only do with Jumps races, but I just love that horse, and I owe him plenty, he fair took the pressure off for the rest of the season.
Other highlights around this time, was Potters Point in The Kerry National, with Kylecrue, and Dromnea at the same meeting. Everything in the garden was rosy, and so it continued into October. There were a few Sundays in October, where everything just went right, and I had a serious payday from Harry The Viking, and Desert Cry at Carlisle, while Smad Place, Vintage Clouds, and Bon Chic on the same card at Aintree made me a very happy boy.
It couldn’t possibly continue. And it didn’t. November to January were barren months, and a noticeably poor record in the bigger races was putting the pressure on, but Regal Encore at 100’s in The Ladbroke Trophy fair save my bacon, while Sam Spinner seemed to be keeping me afloat singlehandedly.
That there’s not much more to write about until January tells it own story.
Things burst back into life in February though, with the excellent meeting at Leapordstown, and Edwulf at 125-1 will live with me for a long time. Happy happy days, tempered only by not actually putting it up on here, and the horse not getting the credit he deserved. Kilultagh Vic’s fall at the last proving more of a talking point. Very unfair on a horse who had came back from the dead, and who would probably have won anwyay, even if K Vic had stayed on his feet.
On to Cheltenham, and the biggest meeting of the year. It just went great, with six winners, loads placed, and green books on The Stayers, and The Gold Cup. Highlight was obviously Tiger Roll, the sight of him lobbing him along a mile out, was a joy to behold, he won more comfortably than it looked, and it wouldn’t be the last time this season, we’d see him lobbing away a mile out. the 20-1 for him in January was crazy, batshit crazy, as was the 12’s to win any race, and I piled in. I have to give a big word to Native River. Should be a double Gold Cup winner, but he had his issues in the lead up last season, and with stable completely out of form, he was just up against it. Just a fantastic horse.
If Cheltenham is the biggest meeting of the year, then The Grand National is the biggest race, and I went to the meeting full of confidence, as things had continued in a good vein with General Principle at 33’s in The Irish National, and Keyboard Gangster at 40’s at Kelso. The meeting was hard going though, and there were losers aplenty……and the perfect time for the tiger to come to the rescue. There are no words to explain what his win meant to me. He was double my biggest ever win, but it’s not just the money. It’s seeing your faith repaid. It’s putting your neck on the line, and saying that he’s very very good. He had The National won a mile out, and the sight of him cantering away after jumping three out will live with me forever, as will that leap over the last. A defining moment for me, and one I’ll struggle to top.
Midnight Shadow at 66’s in The Scottish Champion Hurdle topped things off nicely, and was a massive winner himself. Plenty of losers at Ayr though, and although not big staking meeting, it was an ominous sign for Punchestown.
As I said then, just the most successful season, but Punchestown was a bloody disaster. I don’t think I’ve ever had a losing one before. This one more than made up for it. I had some decent bets on, and bar Lone Wolf at 6’s, and a couple of nice each ways, it was carnage, and I learned a lesson, and probably the smack on the nose I needed. The number of losers at Aintree, Ayr, and Punchestown has not went unnoticed. Lesson learnt going forward…….
Going forward, I’ll continue to cut back on the Ante-Posts this season. There were a number of big races where I’d have taken a shoeing in previous seasons, but the actual amount staked Ante-Post this season was cut drastically, with a lot more “on the day”, and this made a massive difference to my returns. One of the best moves I’ve made.
With that in mind, the number of Ante-Posts for next season has also been cut drastically, and I’ve only a handful bet so far.
King George Waiting Patiently 14’s and 16’s
King George Black Corton 66’s EW – Not a big betting race for me too often in the past, but hopefully I’ll get them both there. The injury to WP is obviously a worry.National Hunt Chase Blow By Blow 25’s – For a horse who looks like being one of Elliots “target” horses, this seems very fair. Also with him 10’s any race, and he should be worth a try at this race, certainly looks the obvious target, to me anyay.
Gold Cup Tiger Roll 100’s Each Way, and 150’s – Given the fact that he looks like getting reunited with Keith Donoghue next season, this looks like money down the drain already, but I’ve taken a swing just in case. Horse owes me nothing anyway, but I don’t think he’d disgrace himself. Sensible money would surely see him go Cross Country again.
Gold Cup Terrefort 66’s – Mad mad price, and he’ll be my Ladbroke/Cheltenham Gold Cup “Double” horse this year, with maybe a repeat bid on Sizing Codelco, should he not win at Uttoxeter today. He is definitely on the way back.
Missed Approach Grand National 70’s – I might have him wrong, but I just think that Greatrex is playing a blinder with this horse. Loads to like about his runs on the bigger stages, and hopeful I’m calling him right. I’ll do a book again (slowly started) but it will be slightly altered this season, and with a few coming out of Punchestown, it’ll be built around him, and six others, rather than the usual blanket approach.
Thanks to all four of you who read my waffle this season, it’s appreciated.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.