June 19, 2017 at 20:16 #1304950
Well, it’s Royal Ascot, so time to get a new thread up and running.
After 2 very decent seasons behind me, I’m very wary going into my new season, as getting three in a row will be hard going, but looking forward to giving it a bash.
Been very quiet on the betting front since Punchestown, with only a handful of bets on the go, but had my moments, with decent lifts from Modem & On Fiddlers Green, and a very nice each way return from my old pal Aranhill Chief at 20’s, as well as A Momentofmadness at the same price in The Dash.
I’ll take the usual approach this year, with a combination of Exactas, Trifectas, Big Race Discussions, Ante-Post targets, and a fair amount of waffle.
I haven’t really missed betting properly the last few weeks, and the break was very welcome, but some nice racing this week, and looking forward to having a few punts here and there.
Not the biggest Ante-Post meeting for me, but I have had a go with these……….
Royal Hunt Cup
Bossy Guest 33’s to 50’s
Von Blucher 50’s
Ascot Gold Cup
Astronomys Choice 25’s
Big Time 33’s to 46’s
That’ll be it Ante-Post, but it’s a fabulous meeting, and I’ll play the majority of races. Of those above, Bossy Guest and Big Time would be my biggest fancies.
Looking ahead to the summer, and with Galway on the horizon, I have a few in mind, the likes of these, which I have shamelessly lifted from the “Summer Jumpers” thread.
Pendra – Assuming all is well with him, following his “no show” in The Grand National, and The Irish National, then he looks the ideal type to keep in mind, with ground more likely to be in his favour. Charlie Longsdon is often a man to keep on side of in the bigger summer prizes, and I could see the likes of The Galway Plate, The Summer Cup at Uttoxeter, or The Summer Plate at Market Rasen being right up Pendra’s street.
Aranhill Chief – I’m going for a summer “4 timer” with this boy this year hopefully, having had very decent returns from him the last 3 summers. He thrives at this time of year, and I’m very hopeful of seeing him out in the coming weeks in Ireland. It’s a nice feeling to be on him at a price, and to see him bowling along in front, a hard horse to pass. Fingers Crossed. Edit – As mentioned, already collected from him at 20’s, and hoping for more.
On Fiddlers Green – Another horse who does his best during the summer in Ireland. A nice pipe opener at Punchestown last week, and he’s very much one to keep on side of. Edit – won for me at 11’s last week, and the manner of his win suggested there could be more to come, regardless of going up in the weights.
Devils Bride – Ran well for a long way at Punchestown last week, and was in front when taking a spill. If in the same mood, then he’s another horse to take note of.
Shanpallas – A surprise, and late absentee from Galway last year, he’s been tenderly ridden when seen since. Versatile both trip wise, and also whether or not he runs over hurdles or fences. Looks very much like a JP horse, who’s role is to shine at The Galway Festival. Should he take that meeting in, then he’s worth a second look at the very least.
Livelovelaugh – My final bet of last season, and he went so close to doing the business for me. If not punished too much for that run, then very much one to consider for The Galway Hurdle.
Modem – Another one for The Galway Hurdle. Down the field behind Livelovelaugh at the weekend, he looks weighted to at least equal his fourth in last years Galway feature. Edit – Won cosily at 8’s a couple of weeks ago, and I just wonder as to whether or not he could go for The Galway Plate.
Flaxen Flare – I don’t know if September quite qualifies as The Summer, well it certainly doesn’t in my haunts of Ayrshire and Lanarkshire, but I am very very interested in this guy for Septembers Kerry National, and I think he’s a horse to bear in mind over the coming months.
Two horses I’m definitely adding to this “summer” list, are these guys………..
Sandymount Duke – Finally getting the hang of things, and won nicely a fortnight back. He could have a very big season in him, and looks nailed on to figure wherever he goes at Galway.
Vintage Vinnie – Very impressive at Aintree on Friday, and it may just be, after a few disappointments, that he’s more of a summer horse. 12’s for The Summer Cup is very fair.
Goes without saying that a lot of talk will be around these 2 meetings, but for the first summer in years, I’ve kept my powder dry so far, and haven’t added to my original bets, which I mentioned at the tail end of last term.
Sutton Place 50-1 Champion Hurdle – He was one of my main fancies for The Champion Hurdle this season, but it didn’t go according to plan, and fences were mentioned. He wasn’t seen at all though until the tail end of January, when he came back out and won in nice style at Naas. He then stepped up in trip at Navan next time, and probably won with a bit more in hand than it looked. Connections quickly dismissed any notion of Cheltenham this year, and that seem strange to me, he would surely have been a player in The Champion Hurdle. I asked for a price before his Naas win, and 50’s was the best I could get, which I think tells it’s own story. I actually think it’s a poor bet now, as 50’s is poor value for a horse who now looks more likely to go Stayers route, or could very well go over fences. I think I’ll easily be able to beat 50’s as the year goes on. Edit………pulled up lame in The Stayers at Punchestown, and assuming he’s ok, I’ll hope to see him in The 4 Miler, and he’s already made some perms at 20’s for that race.
Cause of Causes 125-1 Gold Cup – I’m wearing my Cause of Causes T-Shirt (Ok, it’s a onesie), drinking my Coffee out of my Cause of Causes mug as I type this, but I just think he’s worth one attempt at The Gold Cup. I wanted 200’s for him, but I didn’t get anywhere near it. After his win in The Cross Country, I would have him as potentially overpriced at 10’s for The 2018 Renewal of that race, but they must be tempted to win 4 different races at The Festival with him. Love him to bits, and have topped up at 66’s.
Tiger Roll 250-1 Gold Cup – I’m not quite wearing Tiger Roll slippers yet (they’re in the post), but I just love this horse as well. Not pocket talking, as I didn’t bet him that day, but his run in The Munster National blew me away, and I thought he was dynamite. He was a decent long term gamble for me for The 4 Miler, and he did it pretty easily to be honest. There’s surely more to come from him, and if he can keep on his feet, he’s tiny, then, don’t laugh, but I genuinely fancy him for this. Edit………….he is now my clear #1 for The Grand National, and 50’s is decent.
Bacchason 50-1 Ryanair, and 100-1 Gold Cup – Interesting that this boy didn’t go to Cheltenham, but I was hugely impressed with him at Gowran Park last time, and he must have a chance of progressing next year. Same connections as Un De Sceaux, and if they fancy sending UDS to The Gold Cup, then I think this boy could be an able deputy. He’s all potential at the moment, and a bit “leftfield”, but I like him. Another who I reckon I could get at bigger odds later in the year.
Samcro 100-1 Champion Hurdle – Highly regarded horse, and he’s been looked after carefully so far. Very much like Blow By Blow, who’s been given similar “Kid Gloves” treatment last season, I think he’s a star in the making. I can see him being the focus of a lot of discussion regarding whether or not he goes the Supreme/Neptune/Albert Bartlett route, but as I don’t really play those markets heavily Ante-Post, I thought I’d take a swing at the big one……..should he progress rapidly, and with the chance of Petit Mouchoir going chasing, and Apples Jade staying in The Mares. It’s helluva unlikely that he’all go Champion Hurdle, but worth a swing at it. As I said, I really think he’s a star in the making, and it’s very rare for me to be excited about a Novice Hurdler.
Sizing Codelco 100-1 Cheltenham Gold Cup – The Tizzard/Potts combination is dynamite just now, and I hope the hot streak can continue into next season with this guy. Loads to like about the way he fought off all comers at Aintree, and I couldn’t resist a go at that price with Paddy Power (took 66’s with Stan James as well). Connections rate him highly, and worth noting, that his poor run at Cheltenham was during that unfortunate spell, when there was clearly something affecting the yards runners. I’ve taken him at 500-1 for The Ladbroke Gold Cup/Cheltenham Gold Cup Double, and 33’s for The Ladbroke itself. Edit…..has came out and won at Punchestown, again, showing those battling qualities he’ll need for Cheltenham. He shouldn’t go up too much I hope for this recent win, and I’m still very excited about him.
Tiger Roll 50’s to 75’s Grand National – After a close season review of things, I have now made him my #1 for Aintree, and have started chipping away. I did worry that he wouldn’t be the biggest for Aintree, but on reflection, if Elliot can get him there in the same mood as in The National Hunt Chase, or The Munster National, then off the back of a “careful” campaign, he could be a very serious player.
Looking forward to seeing all these guys out in the coming months, but until then, what a week ahead of us, and if I could land a couple, that would be great, and if I could land a few others in the next 10 Months that would be even better.June 19, 2017 at 20:54 #1304963greenasgrassParticipant
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Great to see this thread up, I enjoyed reading the last one even though I only found TRF halfway through it. Agree about Sandymount Duke, I was annoyed not to be on him last time after backing him one start too early at Punchestown. He’s a really nice sort.
Good luck over the summer and hope some of those juicy APs have come home for you by the time you wind up this edition of Nothing Gained.June 19, 2017 at 21:53 #1304966botchy1Participant
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Best of luck VTCJune 20, 2017 at 00:59 #1305008
Thanks Grass and Botchy. Grass, fingers crossed, that would be fab.
Yeah, kicking myself for missing Sandymount last time as well, he’s definitely going the right way.June 20, 2017 at 11:59 #1305065buckersParticipant
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It would be an incredible feat to top last year Venture, but you’re just the man to do it.
Give em hellJune 20, 2017 at 16:51 #1305142
Thanks Buckers, it would be nice, but I can’t possibly repeat it surely. Won’t be for the lack of trying though lolJune 21, 2017 at 18:59 #1305425darren83Participant
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Come on Bob who wins brittannia i like Ronald RJune 21, 2017 at 19:46 #1305444
I like it when we’re on the same horse Darren, I’ve went for Ronald R as well.
Haven’t went mad the first 2 days, and had a decent return each way from Lancaster Bomber at 28’s, not quite the 125’s I got last season, but a decent lift nonetheless. I had Roussel each way at 12’s, and that covered the race for me as I had bet Simmy’s Copshop as well.
Big disappointment today from Bossy Guest, really fancied him, and had 2 small goes in the last which were nowhere.
I tend to wait till The Thursday of Royal Ascot before betting in every race, and I’ll have a go at it tomorrow. If any joy, I’ll do the same on Friday, and if I draw a blank, I’ll pull back a bit for The Friday.
Norfolk – True Blue Moon 12’s ew places.
Hampton Court Stakes – Orderofthegarter 12’s and 14’s in ew perms, and 7’s and 8’s to win.
Ribblesdale – Astronomys Choice 25’s ew Ante-Post
Gold Cup – Sheikzhayedroad 14’s ew, and Prince of Arran 40’s ew.
Britannia – Ronald R 16’s ew 6 places, and have added Araak for same odds the 6 places.
King George V – Homesman 12’s ew 4 places, and 14’s win
Fingers crossed for a decent day Darren, good luck.June 23, 2017 at 01:42 #1305787
Nothing much doing yesterday, though so close with Ronald R. Wasn’t the biggest bet, but would have been nice to see him get up.
The Friday is usually the weakest of the 5 days at the meeting for me, and no change this year, but I’ll have a couple of go’s.
In The King Edward, I’ve went for Raheen House at 28’s 4 places, while in The Duke of Edinburgh, Master Carpenter at 28’s, and Soldier In Action at 18’s, both look very appealing with 6 places available.
Raheen House, Khalidi
£1 Reverse Exacta
Duke of Edinburgh
Soldier In Action, Master Carpenter, Top Tug
20p Combination Exactas and Trifectas
-£21.60June 24, 2017 at 01:07 #1306070
Got a nice wee lift from Raheen House today, but will give that back tomorrow for sure.June 25, 2017 at 12:58 #1306502
Well, 2nd losing Royal Ascot in a row for me, but not by too much, and more importantly, the meeting as whole was a lot more enjoyable than last year.
Most of the damage done was from my 2 main bets, Bossy Guest, and Big Time, and if not for those 2, I’d have been ahead. Bossy Guest was a bit of a disappointment, though he did take a while to get going, while Big Time didn’t even trap. I’ll definitely be giving them another chance this year.
On the plus side though, after those 2 main bets, it was mainly small bets all the way, but I had 4 chunkier ones on, and 3 of them made the frame, giving things a much healthier look.
I was over the moon with Barsanti yesterday at 25’s, and for a fleeting moment I thought he was going to get there, a smashing run. Lancaster Bomber is quickly becoming one of my favourite horses on the flat, and he did the business for me again at 28’s. I’m tempted to back him for The St Leger, but I’m not 100% on him for that, and it’s another horse I bet for The Doncaster Classic that I caught at 28’s this week, who I’ve really got that race in mind for, in Raheen House. I thought he ran a screamer on Thursday, and I bet him at 40’s each way straight after. No idea if it’s the plan, but very happy to take a chance at those odds. 33’s still available, and topped up the win.
St Leger – Raheen House 40’s each wayJune 25, 2017 at 13:35 #1306505botchy1Participant
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Great to see a Bomber fan around here VTC , reminds me so much of Highland Reel from last year in being under rated. Hopefully the bookies keep offering us those juicy big prices.June 25, 2017 at 14:52 #1306522
Fingers crossed Botch, that 28’s the other day was Fab.June 28, 2017 at 01:56 #1306766
Very interested in the 1610 at Salisbury, as one of my favourite horses in training, Sternrubin, has his second run of the season on the level. Slightly disappointed with him at Goodwood, and at around 7-2, I’ll certainly not be backing him here, but considering connections, I’m very hopeful that he can turn into a Cesarewitch horse this year, and I’ll be hoping for a step in the right direction today.June 28, 2017 at 16:27 #1306843
He bumped into a live one there, but it was a very encouraging runf from Sternrubin, and the pair of them were well clear of the rest of the field.
RUK pundits not convinced he needs stepped up in trip, but I still have Newmarket on my mind for him, and this run should see a welcome rise in the weights. Good to see his old attitude back, and if The Cesarewitch doesn’t happen, then he should have plenty of other viable options this summer.
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