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Ended up very lucky Flyers, and the Gold Cup Book went as well I can be expected. I’ll stick em up later next week, as just tidying up a couple of the other races before the entries are out for them.
Back on the horse today, and with a very strong Saturday Card, having a bet here and there.
Big Race of the day is obviously The Classic Chase. Very worried about Missed Approach, handicapper doing his usual guessing/dodgy shenanigans with him, and he looks a big danger. I’ve went for a couple though, and having taken Cogry win at 10’s, I had a small top up at the 12’s, while despite missing the 16’s, I’m now happy with the 14’s on Indian Castle, as he’s halved now.
No bet in The Lanzarote, and I’ll concentrate on the NTD pair I like at the track. Star of the day is Waiting Patiently, potential superstar, but in a very nice race, I’ll chance Ballyboley to run in to second. 20’s will do me just fine. Ballykan has cost me this season. Was disappointed with him at Ludlow last time, while I was disappointed with myself for The Lavazza, when he was one of 48 horses I bet in the race Ante-Post, and 47 of them didn’t make it on the day. Trying to win that money back today, though as I’ve said before, there’s a chance that The Betbright back here next month might just be the target. Massive fan of Ballyalton, and he’s maybe worth a saver.
Lovely card at Punchestown too, and in the opener, Aranhill Rascal is worth considering. I follow the stable, and though I’ve only bet this horse a couple of times before, today at 7’s just might be the time to go in again.
The 1300 is a cracker, and it’s future targets I have in mind for this race. No secret my opinion on Mall Dini, and I’m mainly interested in him for The Kim Muir, for which I’m already on, while the fav today, Invitation Only, looks interesting for both The National Hunt Chase, and The Irish National. I really do think he’ll run in The Gold Cup next year. No bet on either of them today though.
The 1335 is my type of race, and I’ve split stakes on the two outsiders. Not for the first time, I’m on As De Pique. I’ve certainly lost on him the last couple of years, but if his jumping could just hold out, he’d have a live chance here. His price is certainly absurd. Still going well when falling/unseating at Fairyhouse and Cheltenham, while The Troytown was too hot. Had to have some of that 25’s. As I’ve said before, keeping my distance from the Ryan horses just now, but another go on Georges Conn here. Bet him when he pulled up 2 runs back, where he was dismal, and last time, without the burden of my cash, he was beaten a mile. That doesn’t quite tell the story though. I bet another in the race, but I was horrified to see George creep quietly into it, 3 or 4 out, he looked a big threat, but he rattled it and his chance was gone. I have to have another chance with him, and looking for at least the 40’s he is just now.
Smashing days racing, and will just manage to catch most of it, before I head to work. Been a real quiet couple of weeks for me, with only very very small bets mainly, but hopefully I can nab a winner today, in a month where things are traditionally hard going for me.
Drew a blank yesterday, and my usual January continues. Very happy with the staking though, and only my Double Ross bet last week, was a normal sized one. No hard luck stories yesterday either, though I was very happy with Cogry, and he may have another one in him this season. Trip looked the real issue for Indian Castle, and much like Cogry, he looks worth trying again.
As De Pique (maybe time to retire him), can’t be bet again, but I might make a case, no doubt, for Georges Conn on another day.
Ballykan came up against a very decent horse, while Ballyboley, was a bit of a loud one, and I was very happy with that run, as I’d love to see him get an entry for Aintree. We’ll know soon enough on that front.
Talking of Aintree, one horse who I’m very interested in today is Lough Derg Jewel. Really impressed by him earlier in the season. Certainly not betting him today around 3’s, but he looked perfect for The Topham, and considering connections, he might just go that route with a good spin today (Edit……maybe not)
I’d love a bet in this big handicap at Fairyhouse, but it’s got to be Acapella for me, and no way I’m betting at that price (which has just proved a wise move)
Evening…..Same boat here yesterday,very frustrating at all 3 NH tracks,half hearted picks I can handle,when you think you have put the time in,tad worrying.Do think there is more to this,holy grail maybe,no doubt in isolation it can be seen as just poor selections,not convinced.
Be interesting to see how the Lanzarote form stacks up,time looks decent in comparison to last 8 runnings,looked decent gallop,few in behind caught the eye,especially the doctors horse.
Really liked the king horse in the opener,thats always a tough division as they can improve so much on spring ground,he looks to have a real engine,you can knock his tecnique,stables youngsters normally well schooled.
Not had a look yet at the Schweppes,one of the fairest tracks around,was my local course many years ago,and the scene of a few tales that can only happen with mates.
Plenty to look forward to,festival fever appears to be starting already,each to their own,gently gently over the next few weeks,my time on the other site may have come to an end,completely dead on there with very little imput it would appear.
Be lucky
Evening Flyers, yeah, small beer just now, and plan to keep it that way for a couple of weeks yet. No major study yesterday to be honest, but was happy with my pair in The Classic, and that’s the only race I was interested in yesterday. I’ll have a look at The Leapordstown Handicap, Thyestes, and Skybet, but that should be that for the month. Really busy at work just now, so not got the time, but that should ease this week, while I spend about 40 minutes an hour a day on here, tidying things up, and it’s really eating in to my time posting.
I really liked yesterdays Lanzarote, amazing how they can be that more enjoyable when you don’t have a bet, and I’d agree, plenty to take from the race. As for The Schweppes, bloody love that race. Started the thread on it, mentioned a few, but could have mentioned a hell of a lot more.
Yeah, Cheltenham Fever up and running for sure. Not sure how I feel about it. I’ve held back a lot from the Cheltenham threads this year, but will start to get a lot more active now. I do enjoy it, and sad as it may be, it’s certainly the focal point of my year, that period from Cheltenham to Punchestown, nothing like it, and without question the highlight of the racing year. Conversely though, the focus gets more intense towards it, to the detriment of the other action, with the perfect example being that veterans race last week. That race has became an overnight success, and what do we get? People wanting one at The Festival. It’s bloody Sandowns Race, just leave it the hell alone. If there’s one at The Festival, the way things are going, the Sandown Race will become a four runner event with everything else being saved for The Festival. It doesn’t help with guys like Luke Harvey positively encouraging it. Someone should really take him aside and explain to him.
As for the other site, yeah, I’m drifting away. Joined the same week as I joined here, and have loved it. No doubt though that turnover is non existent. That Cheltenham Forum used to be bustling, but hardly anyone left, and not much quality. Doesn’t help with the posting problems, it’s getting worse for me. I don’t want to single any one person out, but “Impossible123” is killing me. I really do think he is a “sophisticated” troll. He clearly has no understanding/knowledge of racing, and everything he posts is bland and vague. He could translate his drivel to any of the other forums on there. A complete cretin, and as daft as it sounds, I genuinely believe he has singlehandedly made people leave, as he is everywhere.
Quite agree re the Sandown Veteran’s race, Bobby.
Time is always the enemy when studying form. And burnout.
Even when you put the time in, FN, and work in the same way as usual there are barren periods. Must stick to your methods and strategy that have proven to work and eventually it will turn.
Yet another very quiet weekend on the betting front, and I ain’t missing it. Few wee bets here and there, but no joy, and in the other races I’m watching, the ones I would go for, aren’t winning either. I may have picked a good time to sit it out. I’m almost doing the betting equivalent of “Dry January”.
Only two bets of note all month, Double Ross in The Veterans, and I’ve had a bit of a go on Sumos Novios in The Thyestes.
Big weekend coming up though, and I might get back on it then, though as I said, I’m actually enjoying the break, which is a worry lol.
Certainly won’t be betting him, but no way I’ll be missing the hurdling debut of Dophin Vista at Fakenham tomorrow. I had to look twice at the racecard. I did not see this one coming. Best of luck to him.
Thyestes decs out later today.
Wounded Warrior dropped to an interesting mark,and they have been messing around with headgear.
More letters than numbers,goes right handed,his last run was not completely devoid of promise,lets see if he is entered,trainer mob handed at mo.
Holding fire at present,keep an eye out on your lad raceday.
GL
It’s an interesting shout WW. Didn’t run too badly in it last year, and as you say, interesting mark. 18lbs lower, interesting for sure. I’ve got a saver on Mall Dini, to add to Sumos, but definitely be adding another. Got a shortlist of about four at the moment, and he could make it five.
Really wanted a bet today, but other than The Thyestes, no thanks, not on that ground. Very interested though, in how De Plotting Shed gets on, as I really think he is appropriately named.
Thyestes
Sumos Novios, Flaxen Flare, Ucello Conti
20p Combination Forecasts, and Tricasts-£267.15
As I said earlier, really enjoyed the break from betting, and I picked a good time to take that break, but the racing is decent today, and I’ll have a few selections on the go.
No joy from the two bets this month, Double Ross, and Sumos Novios, but hoping that a few of these can make the frame today, that would be ideal.
Smashing card at Cheltenham, and in the big one, I’ve sided with Singlefarmpayment at 50’s Ante-Post, and I’ve topped up at 33’s. He’s had a disappointing season so far, but I said early doors he would get a Gold Cup entry, and I always seen this race as his decider, as to whether he goes for it or not. Up against some tough opponents, and I think American would be a big danger, as well as The The Last Samuri, but I just think that his is the track, and the race, for SFP, and hopeful he makes the frame.
Not a very big betting race for me usually, The Cleeve, but I’ve taken a chance on Ex Patriot here. His fourth to Defi Du Seuil in The Triumph last year would be respectable on it’s own, but when you take into account that he got rid of his rider on the way to start, and then bolted, then it really was a decent performance. He seems to have thrived for the step up in trip on his last two runs, winning at Limerick, and then making a race of it against Kilultagh Vic a few days later. The Stayers is reportedly the plan, and I’m hoping that this should give connections a clear signal as to whether or not he should be going there, and I think he’s more than worthy of an entry for that, and well happy with 33’s. I could end up with egg on my face, but that price just looked wrong.
The Handicap Chase is a belter, and after saying some unkind words about him, I got a run from him last time, and I’ll side with Shantou Flyer here. That run last time has him making the frame here. 12’s seems a fair price. Not been shy in talking about Frodon this year, and the fact he comes here, rather than Doncaster is interesting. I have him down as a big player in The Ultima, or The Brown Advisory Plate, and a win here would certainly temper that enthusiasm, but those races could be a distraction today, and his chances are obvious. Win saver. One of my best decisions this season has been deserting Tizzard, who I sided with closely last term, but it’s unlikely that he’ll go the whole season without firing. His Ultragold is interesting at a price. I’ve seriously scaled down my Grand National “book” this year, but this boy is one of the few I mentioned early on. He’s been just average so far, but with The National confirmed as the target, he is in the danger zone, for not sneaking in here, and a place, rather than a win here, would see him get in on a serious weight. At 25’s, he looks a proper each way shout today at 25’s, with 4 Places up for grabs.
In the finale, also at a price is Eddiemaurice. He made a proper race of it last time, against Kayf Grace, a mare I really rate, and I thought that was a solid run. I made a note of him then, and I cannot believe you can get 25’s on him this morning.
At Doncaster, we have another big race with The Skybet. I’ve went for Vibrato Valtat each way at 20’s, and L’Ami Serge win at 10’s. Happy with Davie Russell booked for the Henderson horse, but all about Vibrato for me, and I’ll be disappointed if he doesn’t make the 4. My staking on L’Ami Serge, had him down as a saver, even as early as Monday, and this was with adding an outsider in mind. I was seriously chewing over Wakanda, Coologue, and Federici, but it’s looking like Tenor Nivernais for me, as he is a crazy price at 25’s.
In the 1550, my final selection of the day is Foxtail Hill. Seems a strange price to me at 9’s, as he’s surely the best horse in the race. That’s my view anyway, and I have to have a go at that 9’s, as this looks like being his trip.
Definitely a few perms on the go today as well, and my first normal betting day of the year, so hoping a couple can go my way.
1350 Cheltenham
Shantou Flyer, Frodon, Ultragold
20p Combination Exactas, and TrifectasExacta paid £78.40
-£253.87
Cheers VTC…..well done with f/cast today.
Hoping you might have Frodon for Ryannair A/Post ? That was some performance today.
Also liked the way EX PATRIOT travelled,not up to WH on that,plenty time on his side.
Not disastrous here,Warriors Tale nutted,doubled up with Agrapart,close but not quite.
The dreaded January not too painful……Onwards
Hope you made something from Singlefarmpayment Bobby, you snaffled some huge prices.
I had to Tommy, that was far too big a plunge, would have been madness not to. Just laid off the stake, though wish I had been greedy now, having seen how it went.
@FlyersNap
Thanks, the exacta might not have paid that much, but did my confidence the world of good. Very unlucky with that double, that would have been smashing.A day of mixed emotions for me. I’ve bet Frodon and Wakanda in their last two outings, and that was hard viewing for me today. Hindsight is a wonderful thing, but wtf did I not do a wee double. Wakanda was particularly hard to take, as it was only the last fence that done him last time, and I did say he should have won.
No joy on the Ante-Post front with Frodon, but he at least did the business for me today. Only a saver mind, but along with greening out on SFP, it put a better perspective on the days bets.
Very happy with Ex Patriot today, and definitely one to keep on side of, there’s a good prize in that one…….which is more than can be said for Vibrato Valtat. So disappointing, never in it, and I doubt I’ll side with him again.
Biggest disappointment of the day was Foxtail Hill. Jumping went to pieces, and I can kiss my Champion Chase bets goodbye. Was it you Flyers that mentioned him for Grand Annual? That’s where I see him now.
Although a losing day, The Exacta, Singlefarmpayment, and Frodon, fair saved my bacon, could have been very poor day.
I’ll be glad to see the back of this month. Only strict staking has saved me. Not a painful month financially, but my confidence has taken a dent. Just got to get on with it now.
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