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Sternrubin is still a novice VTC.
Judging by race times, both winners of The Ladbroke have potential to win again.
Value Is EverythingCheers for the heads up GT, I hadn’t realised that. Not that it would stop me having a couple of quid if he appeared on the list, see if he could emulate Make A Stand (I think he was a Novice), or Royal Gait. What it will do is stop me adding him to the market on Betfair, as I had been considering doing that.
I didn’t know the race times, but visually I suspected that it was a decent performance. Front 2 worth keeping tabs on definitely.
Sounds as if you’re doing OK Moe, and no need to change your patterns……..you’re doing something right with all those big priced ones. Everybody has their own thresholds, and £11 down sounds ok to me. I’d be quite comfortable to be down £111 as well, but that would probably bring other people out in a cold sweat haha. I know some people who stick £500 on races like it was loose change, I don’t think I could handle that. Just keep what you’re doing, sounds as if you get more enjoyment out of it that most.
Brilliant with the book tokens, well done, just don’t go getting the grandkids Gambling Books, you don’t want to start them off too early haha!
Y’know, much as I love betting on the gee gee’s I’d be worried sick if any of my family showed any inclination to gamble in any way. I know I could easily be on a slippery slope if I wasn’t careful. A few years ago I found I wasn’t enjoying the racing unless I backed a winner and it was a wake up call for me. I have, however, put some more money into my account to give the S.O. for Christmas [he’s a nightmare to buy presents for] so we can do a ‘head to head’ over Christmas. In fact, I might do a thread about it.
I was slowly going the same way a couple of years back Moe, but thankfully, I snapped out of it. I reckon I enjoyed at least 10, maybe more, races at The Festival last year without a bet on. Nothing like watching the likes of Vautour, and appreciating it, without having to worry about having a bet. It’ll be the same again this year.
You’ve got to do a thread Moe, that would be great
All that great racing yesterday, and I managed to enjoy it without a single bet on, save for a few quid I had placed on Irish Cavalier last week, but to be honest, once the race started, I didn’t even think about him, and just enjoyed the race. What a cracker, and superb to see Cue Card get up on the line, I was willing him home all the way.
Had planned to have a decent bet on Grandads Horse in The Rowland Meyrick, really fancied him, but sadly the meeting was lost. Was cursing myself after missing the 50’s on Sign Of A Victory, but very relieved after the race. Wouldn’t have been a big bet, but thought he had a fair chance of the runner up spot.
Biggest disappointment was Ttebbob, who although had no real right to be taking on Douvan, I’d still have liked to have seen more from him, and he stopped very quickly, I hope he’s ok.
My big hope today is Minella Foru at 20’s, and I obviously like Rossvoss too.
1435 Kempton
Ballinvarrig, Ned Stark, The Last Samuri
50p Combination Exactas & TrifectasPaddy Power
Rossvoss, Minella Foru, The Job Is Right, Operating
50p Combination Forecasts, 40p Tricasts-£999
Very early days, but with every race now priced up with some firms, it’s time to start taking a tentative look at some horses on my radar for some of the other races at The Cheltenham Festival. Still got a lot of Irish horses to chew over, not to mention the real possibility that Ricci/Mullins could target every race, with a few no doubt chucked in.
I did a couple of Lucky 31’s at the tail end of last season, but managed to resist any more so far, as they made a big difference between a winning Cheltenham & a losing Cheltenham for me last season. I’ll only do a couple in the lead up, but starting to draw up early candidates.
3 Miler Day 1 – The victory of Minella Foru in The Paddy Power got me thinking of potential targets for him, and this race sprung to mind. Not surprisingly he heads the market for it, and is 14’s with Paddy Power. He’s clearly a horse going the right way, with probably another big prize in him this season, just depends on how Sundays win is viewed by the handicapper, and he could potentially go for a number of targets. The 14’s wouldn’t tempt me just now though, and I’d rather take a lower price nearer the time. Another JP horse who could here is Minella Rocco. Very disappointing so far, but I’ll be watching him with interest, should he take up either of his engagements on Friday. He’s surely going to be better than we’ve seen so far over fences, and should he fail to shine in future races, I’ll note what kind of mark he’s allotted. I think The Young Master will head for The Gold Cup, however, should his mark slip a couple of pounds lower, then they might consider this as well.
My main hope just now though would be Fingal Bay, who’s generally available at 20’s. Although he’s maybe not the most fluent, he’s ran sound enough races this season, and provided they don’t blow his mark, this previous Festival winner would really appeal at the 20’s, and I’ve started throwing a couple of pounds his way.
Novice Handicap Day 1 – Very difficult race to call this early, and no strong idea of the winner, however, Thomas Crapper, last years runner up, looks reasonable at 20’s. Still a Novice, which probably tells it’s own story, he wins rarely, and given a better ride this time around, he could hopefully go one better. Had my doubts about his soundness, following his absence from the December meeting, and I’m hoping for nothing more than an adequate run from his this Friday, as he doesn’t want to go much higher for this race. Probably a “bridesmaid” horse, who’ll always find one to beat him, but he’s the only one sticking out to me at the moment.
Coral Cup – Very keen on Karezak for this, certainly off his run in The Long Walk, and he looks big at 25’s with Skybet.
Cross Country – Far too short at 5’s, but I’ll probably stick with Quantitativeeasing again, who would have went close last year, but for getting hampered.
Pertemps – Another race in which Minella Rocco could feature, should he fail to progress over the larger obstacles, but he really is a “wait and see” job overall, though worth noting that he is actually quoted for this. One horse I’m keeping in mind for this is an old favourite, Seefood. Finished down the field in this 2 years ago, but would potentially come here off a much lower mark. Although basically impossible to fancy on recent runs, I’d be interested to see what kind of improvement his new trainer, Dr Richard Newlands, could get out of him. Normally like an antepost punt on this, but I’ll wait until more of the trials are run.
Grand Annual – I tend to go for a potential JP plot horse in this, and I’ll no doubt be the same this season, but at this early stage, I’ve got one eye on the Dan Skelton trained Workbench. Bet him ew at 33’s a couple of weeks ago, and he did me proud. From a trainer on the up, then with better spring ground (obviously not guaranteed) he could be a lot better than a 33’s shot, which he is with Bet365 at the moment.
Bet so far
3 Miler – Fingal Bay 20’s
Coral Hurdle – Karezak 25’sGreat to see Double Seven & Seabass go head to head today in a Novice Hurdle at Punchestown today. I still can’t get over how I managed not to collapse during the 2012 & 2014 Nationals, when I consider how much I had riding on them…….17k for Double Seven, and 12k for Seabass. Both finished 3rd, and gave me great runs, so badly wanted to bet them both again today.
Having won off Seabass last time, and Double Seven coming back off his long layoff, I decided to have a chunky reverse forecast instead, but it wasn’t to be.
Seabass ran another sound race, but as I’ve said before, I’m not sure a return to The National would be wise, but I’ll watch the situation with interest. Double Seven was very encouraging though, his first run since that day in The 2014 National, he was running on well at the end, it was a promising performance, which makes the 50’s for this years race very tempting.
It’s not only my 2012 & 2014 selections who are making their comebacks over hurdles, as the horse who would have been my #1 hope in 2015, Golden Wonder, makes his comeback over timber at Fairyhouse tomorrow. Injured in last years Munster National, he was a big hope for Aintree, following his close second to Shutthefrontdoor in the 2014 Irish National. If sound, I reckon he’ll be a big player in this years race, and with it being the aim before his injury last year, he’s sure to be getting targetted for it this time around. Looks on a very fair chase mark as well.
Bob you in heaven this week 3 big handicaps 2 chases and hurdle my bets below
DESOTO COUNTY 12/1
KILLER CROW 10/1
DOING FINE 12/1Any views on betfair hurdle only seen market so no idea who go for yet
Can’t wait Darren, my kind of racing, and looking good for beating the weather as well.
I’ve put my update on your Betfair Hurdle thread, some interesting entries.
Good luck with your 3 bets in the handicaps.
I’ve went for
Seabass 14’s
Whatsforuwontgobyu 12’s
Sego Success 10’s
Midnight Prayer 14’s EWI may add a couple more in those races no doubt, and keen on Dromnea and Houblon Des Obeaux at Warwick too
Fingers crossed one of us can get a winner.
Decent couple of days, after opting for My Murphy on the day in The Thyestes, and being rewarded with the 20’s, as well as getting a few quid back from The Job is Right. Cloudy Too landed The Peter Marsh as well for me yesterday, more than recouping the cash I lost on him earlier in the season, so very happy.
The only sting in the tail was, and this is unforgivable for a thread like this, I landed The Trifecta, and didn’t have it up on this thread
This is off the back of having Astracad/Third Intention at Chepstow in October, and Little Jon/Upepito at Newbury in November. I don’t even want to think about my, literally, last second decision to leave out Champagne West from The Trifecta in The Caspian Caviar Gold Cup, so I really will have to give myself a kick.Very happy with how the season has went, it’s going very well, not spectacular, but happy nonetheless. What I have noticed is I really should be more picky about the races I bet on. Yesterday was the third Saturday in a row I’ve only bet in the big chase of the day, and following Mountainous (and, erm, Benvolio) in The Welsh National, Midnight Prayer in The Classic Chase, My Murphy in The Thyestes, and Cloudy Too yesterday, I will definitely start being more selective. That’s the plan anyway, it probably won’t last
So very happy, but must try and dent that losing total, it’s spiralling out of control haha.
Anyway, couple of horses caught the eye yesterday.
Rock The Kasbah was superb at Ascot, and I’ll be following him closely from now on, and looks an ideal replacement for connections, for the ageing Wishfull Thinking, Menorah, and long time absentee Captain Chris. He looks just the ideal type to fill their shoes.
I didn’t bet Fascino Rustico yesterday, but I had him in Jac’s comp, and I badly need a winner in it. He, of course, fell at the last with the race won. I was absolutely gutted, you would have thought I had a score on him. I’m reluctant to admit I once had a long term bet on him to win The Champion Hurdle, but that obviously was waaayyy off target, but still with a switch to Gordon Elliot, he looks to have a future over the larger obstacles. He’s had physical issues the last 12 months, but if Elliot can keep him sound, he’ll win races for sure.
Ante-Post NR’s
Yes Tom, Sign Of A Victory, Peace and Co, Aristo Du Plessis, Wicklow BraveFrom another post, my thoughts on a few Irish ones in the handicaps.
3 Miler – The first one I’ll mention is the horse who won that day, Minella Foru. I was lucky enough to catch him at 20’s a few weeks before the race, and he looks a sure thing to keep on progressing. I’ve bet him for the 3 miler on Day 1 at 20’s, and hopeful of a good showing. There’s always the chance he’ll head elsewhere, as he’s versatile trip wise, but confident this is the right race for him.
County Hurdle – I’ll have to see how he comes out of his comeback race the other day, but Ivan Grozny ran very well, and he could be a dark horse for this. Not quoted on the books at the moment.
Kim Muir – I reckon Cause of Causes has to head here, and I’d be very very hopeful of a big run. I’m sure the connections would get the likes of Jamie Codd to continue the partnership, which is worth a few lengths, and he’s on a fantastic mark, miles short of what he’s capable of. Landed the 4 Miler last year, ans should have won this 2 years ago, but wasn’t given a very good ride. He’s my number one fancy for The Festival at the moment. Another Irish one to consider for this is Guess Again, who was in the process of running a big race last year in this, before getting brought down. **I also have a close eye on Amigo & Standing Ovation from The Pipe stable for this race.
Others
“Racing Post Chase” – I’m hoping to see an entry for Salubrious and The Young Master in this. Salubrious looked very good at Carlisle earlier in the season, and I think he’s miles better than he’s shown in his last couple of runs. This looks an obvious target. As Aintree gets ever closer, then The Young Master starts to look a very realistic choice. The weights will be out by the time this comes round, and I think this is when TYM will show his true colours.
John Constable – Not surprisingly, very well fancied for The Betfair Hurdle, but he looks the type to me, who’ll come good at Aintree, before going very close in The Scottish Champion Hurdle.
Scottish National – Sego Success is my long term fancy for this, but I’ll watch to see how Onenightinvienna & Blaklion fare at Cheltenham as well.
Well it happened again yesterday, and had the winner of the big chase of the day, as Ziga Boy landed The Skybet. I managed to get 11’s as well, which was unreal. Ok, it wouldn’t have been the biggest bet, and I also bet Le Reve in it, as well as Viva Steve & Sam Winner at Cheltenham, but nonetheless, another wee reminder for me to maybe concentrate on those big chases…….on the day. That’s 4 weeks in a row, so very happy.
Few bits and bobs Ante-Post
Arkle
Already got a green book in this thanks to Ttebbob, albeit to a few quid, and that few quid is now a few pennies. I’ve bet Rock The World of Jessica Harringtons, just in case he runs, as he’s a horse I really like. Not quite sure why I’m betting in The Arkle, as it’s a race that’s never of much interest to me, but that’s 3 bet in it this season, this will not happen again.Rock The World 240’s to 300’s
World Hurdle
Very pleased with my green book in this, but with Aux Ptit Soins still 50-50 to make the gig, after that performance from Thistlecrack yesterday, I’m happy to keep that profit I’ve got. No more bets, though At Fishers Cross might make a few ew Mug 31’s, however hats off to Thistlecrack, he was awesome yesterday, and race looks in the bag.Gold Cup
Very definitely not got a green book in this, but the news this morning that Smad Place heads to The Gold Cup is very good news indeed. I’ve already laid a few quid on Smad, but after yesterday I won’t be laying another bean, even if it means staying in the red beforehand.BOB you been ok any views on betfred eideur chase seen market in post today not got a idea yet on who to go for
Yeah, doing good Darren, hope you are well mate.
I’ve had a quick look over it, but very definitely one to wait with, until the 5 day decs at the very least. Got a shortlist at the moment, and like the look of the Pipe pair, Broadway Buffalo & Top Wood, but this could easily change, and definitely going to hold fire.
Broadway Buffalo
Top Wood
Harry The Viking
Houblon Des Obeaux
Uncello Conti
Sego Success
Unioniste
Wyck HillAnother quiet Saturday for me, and for the first time since I started betting, I didn’t have one single bet on a Saturday, and to be honest, didn’t miss it that much at all. Only horse I had running for me was Sternrubin, who I’d bet Ante-Post in The Betfair.
Nearly went last Saturday without a bet as well, but had a go at the 11th hour on Wounded Warrior, and eventual winner, Carlingford Lough, in The Irish Gold Cup. Carlingford continued my good run, where I’ve been more selective in the races I bet in, and the odds of 28’s was slightly offset with it being a smaller bet. The only time I had a smaller bet in a big race this season, was when I bet 2 in The Charlie Hall, and hardly broke a tenner.
Still, was good to keep the run going, but just couldn’t find a bet today. Was kicking myself a wee bit when Houblon Des Obeaux, who’s cost me a fair few quid this season, bolted up today, but if I’m being honest, I probably wouldn’t have bet him at around 3’s, and I also fancied that old rogue Rocky Creek.
The quandry for me tomorrow is whether to have a bet or not, with several of interest running.
Ttebbob
You won’t see a better round of jumping from a Novice all season than this boys 2 victories, but unfortunately he was, predictably, put well in his place by Douvan. He really was poor that day, and be interesting to see what effect that has had on him. Made a profit on The Arkle with him, and still have a few quid lying on him for that race, but regardless of what happens tomorrow, I’d be happy to write that off, and wait for Punchestown with him.Prince Of Scars – The World Hurdle is another race I’ve got a green book on, and I’ve held back betting Prince of Scars, but I do really like him. I put him up as one to follow last year, but never expected to see him sneak into World Hurdle contention. Really hope he can cement his place for Cheltenham tomorrow, in The Boyne Hurdle at Navan.
Scoop The Pot – Runs in The Pertemps qualifier at Exeter, and very much the type of profile I look for, for that race at Cheltenham.
Quantitativeeasing – My fancy for The Cross Country, a race he should have won last year, but for getting carried out. He faces JP’s other big Cross Country fancy, Josies Orders, over hurdles tomorrow at Navan, and I hope he shows enough to book his ticket. I once bet him at 33’s Each Way in The Galway Plate, and he finished runner up to land me a right few quid…………..yet despite that, he’s still the most expensive horse I’ve ever followed, so he still owes me, and I want him to run a big race tomorrow.
Midnight Prayer – Runs in The Veterans Chase at Exeter tomorrow, and he’s one of my big winners in The Grand National. I’m torn between whether I want him to run tomorrow at Exeter or not. Off 139, I can see that it’s risky that he might just miss out for Aintree, with this years, 126 strong entry, but on the other hand, he might get stuffed, and blow all chance of getting in at all. He could also win out the park, and makes his task, should he make The National, that much harder…………no bloody idea what I want lol
To be fair to connections, he’s incredibly fragile, and can see why they would want to run him while he’s sound, and to be honest, I won’t believe he’s running in The National until the tapes go up.Pleasant Company, Noble Endeavour & Measureofymdreams – I’ve bet all 3 at big odds for Novice events at The Festival, as unlikely as their chances are, and all 3 face each other in The Ten Up Novices Chase which will surely go to Black Hercules anyway. Just hoping they run with a lot of credit, to keep the hopes alive of having a couple of big priced outsiders running for me at Cheltenham. Decent horses in their own right, and I particularly like Pleasant Company, but surely no match for the fav tomorrow.
Fingal Bay – Strong fancy of mine for the 3 Miler on Day 1 of The Festival, and I’m hoping they don’t blow his mark in The Graduation Chase at Exeter, which unfortunately, looks a weak affair. I hope he finishes second.
Jett – Expected big things from him, but he’s yet to deliver. Can’t be bet with any confidence, and in this Pro-Am Flat Race, it might make more sense to make it a watching brief.
Most of these will be a short price tomorrow, so if I do have a go, it’ll be small stake permed Accas, which I really only like doing Each Way with bigger prices, so I think I’ll just go the full weekend without a bet
Navan
1530 – Quantitativeeasing, Mad Brian, Railway Tommy
1600 – Pleasant Company, Mesureofmydreams, Noble Endeavour
50p Combination TrifectasMeasureofmydreams, Noble Endeavour, Pleasant Company paid €291.30
-£982.35
Looking at the list of Grand National weights again, I’ve a bad feeling that Cause of Causes won’t make it, and also looking worrying for Midnight Prayer & Our Father.
Those were my 3 main fancies, but after Sunday, was cooling on Midnight Prayer anyway, as that was a tough ask for a fragile horse.
If Cause of Causes or Our Father don’t make it, I wouldn’t have a very strong fancy, but still a good few to pin my hopes on, as I try for a green book. I’ll leave out the ones who’ve no chance of getting there, and concentrate on those higher up. If things go well on the exchanges, I might even add to the list. Looking forward to the next few weeks to see how it all works out.
The Jonjo pair Holywell & Shutthefrontdoor are obvious dangers to all, as is O’Faolains Boy, and in the same ownership, The Romford Pele.
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